In this site, we've discussed a lot about what the consoles are doing now or in 6 months time but we don't seem to ever talk about what will happen late in the console cycle and what will happen after a new one is released and the current generation will be relegated to second fiddle. This end game is important as both Microsoft and Sony are thinking strategically years ahead and have probably already fleshed out at least a basic plan for the declining years of the current generation.

The Wii in 2006 when it was released was a scary proposition to face. In 2012 (aprox) when the Wii2 will be released with mature 3rd party development, a total monopoly on motion control/airmouse implementation standards, and a performance/visual standards curve that gives fewer and less important advantages to consoles that attempt to win through power no favours at all. A terrifying mature proposition that leaves few gaps for Microsoft or Sony to take advantage of.

Entry into a mature market with high barriers to entry required a revolutionary act - The Wii, A lot of money - The Xbox1, or years of preparation to develop a release a mature product to compete directly with another mature product. So if A, the Microsoft or Sony want to release a console that can compete directly with the Wii in the next generation then the safest and most assured route is to develop the competing solution ahead of the Next generation. So thereforce B, they must act to develop their response in this current generation to have any hope of competing with success on Nintendos playing field.

If Microsoft or Sony want to compete with the Wii2 in the next generation they must act to position themselves first in this current generation. This is where we can look at the end game for the Xbox360 and PS3. The tipping point as the generation slides towards a close comes sometime between now and this time 2009. This is the half way point for the pre-eminency of these current consoles in the current generation. From between aproximately now and the end of 2009 until the end of the generation preparations can be made to bring a competing airmouse peripheral into maturity. Arriving with an airmouse/motion device in 2012 with little prepartation is a recipe for disaster.

3 questions.

1. So how do you see the Xbox360 and the PS3 in 3-4 years time? Will we be seeing the development and marketing of fully fledged Wiimote like devices or will they stay the course and maintain the current devices and relationships we see currently?

2. Will we see motion control devices like the Wiimote from the big three companies or will we see either revolutionary approaches or the traditional controls being retained or used instead?

3. Is the Wii in a position secure against competing solutions attached to the PS3 or Xbox360 long term. So could a superior motion controller attached to a more powerful console with time to develop games to take advantage of these advantages unseat the Wii in a long term race?

360 dead
ps3 dead
wii dead

i have seen the future with my magical enchanted mirror! SEGA's gonna make a comeback and kick this gen's assess to kingdom come.

1 I see the same consoles with new perepherials.

2 Yes

3 Yes, because a perepherial isn't anywhere as good as a pack-in to the casual user. THe wii would have a massive amount of games that used the motion controls right by the time games for these controllers start to come, and we are already half way through the generation. Even if it did compete, they must have a game similar to wii sports, which in my opinion is the definition of a console seller, other games that utilize these motion controls good, and games that target every demographic. So no they can't win the against the wii, because by that time the wii has a larger advantages, and already will have so many consoles on the market it would be near impossible.


Next generation if all nintendo is doing is upgrading the wiimote, I have no doubt the console will be on par with the others. Maybe even more powerful, because the competition has to build up their wiimotes, and have far less money to spend on gaming. Nintendo's console will be cheaper too no matter how powerful it is. This is because MS and Sony take the multimedia route which has additional costs, while nintendo makes only a game console and nothing else. Nintendo will also have brand name to back them up, and while brand name doesn't determine who wins it sure helps. Also 3rd parties won't underestimate nintendo next gen as they did this one. They will support the next console from the start, and I could even see it getting more support than the other two. Anyway this is all speculation and we should wait until after E3 to see what MS and Sony have been doing with their controls.

Because Kingdom Hearts 3 will be exclusive to SEGA's system..............

1. I think we would see Sony at least emphazising the PS Eye more than in the past, to create more interactivity. I don't know if Microsoft will do the same, I don't think they've done much with their camera, or am I just blind?

2. I think that both Sony and Microsoft will create something that is closer to a Wii mote than their own standard controllers, but I have no idea if these will be worth the effort or if they will recieve the necessary 3rd party support.
In my mind, I just hope that neither Sony or Microsoft "rips off" the Wii and try to be unique instead. More camera interactivity = awesome!

3. Unless Microsoft and Sony try to do something, yes. I would hope that the next generation would by default have a camera with the system, somehow implemented so it would get good support.
Right now, I really hope that Tom Clancy's EndWar will have the Minority Report-esque camera controls that was talked about at one point.

I don't think nintendo will ever come out with a wii2. I think that the casual non-gaming audience will forever be infatauted with the wii causing it to be completely unnecessary to introduce a second console. I see nintendo to continue supporting the wii for years to come and rolling out an hd console in about 2013.

So never = 2013?