In this site, we've discussed a lot about what the consoles are doing now or in 6 months time but we don't seem to ever talk about what will happen late in the console cycle and what will happen after a new one is released and the current generation will be relegated to second fiddle. This end game is important as both Microsoft and Sony are thinking strategically years ahead and have probably already fleshed out at least a basic plan for the declining years of the current generation.
The Wii in 2006 when it was released was a scary proposition to face. In 2012 (aprox) when the Wii2 will be released with mature 3rd party development, a total monopoly on motion control/airmouse implementation standards, and a performance/visual standards curve that gives fewer and less important advantages to consoles that attempt to win through power no favours at all. A terrifying mature proposition that leaves few gaps for Microsoft or Sony to take advantage of.
Entry into a mature market with high barriers to entry required a revolutionary act - The Wii, A lot of money - The Xbox1, or years of preparation to develop a release a mature product to compete directly with another mature product. So if A, the Microsoft or Sony want to release a console that can compete directly with the Wii in the next generation then the safest and most assured route is to develop the competing solution ahead of the Next generation. So thereforce B, they must act to develop their response in this current generation to have any hope of competing with success on Nintendos playing field.
If Microsoft or Sony want to compete with the Wii2 in the next generation they must act to position themselves first in this current generation. This is where we can look at the end game for the Xbox360 and PS3. The tipping point as the generation slides towards a close comes sometime between now and this time 2009. This is the half way point for the pre-eminency of these current consoles in the current generation. From between aproximately now and the end of 2009 until the end of the generation preparations can be made to bring a competing airmouse peripheral into maturity. Arriving with an airmouse/motion device in 2012 with little prepartation is a recipe for disaster.
3 questions.
1. So how do you see the Xbox360 and the PS3 in 3-4 years time? Will we be seeing the development and marketing of fully fledged Wiimote like devices or will they stay the course and maintain the current devices and relationships we see currently?
2. Will we see motion control devices like the Wiimote from the big three companies or will we see either revolutionary approaches or the traditional controls being retained or used instead?
3. Is the Wii in a position secure against competing solutions attached to the PS3 or Xbox360 long term. So could a superior motion controller attached to a more powerful console with time to develop games to take advantage of these advantages unseat the Wii in a long term race?
Tease.
