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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3 will sell around 3million units in others alone in december 2008

> The PS3 wasn't designed to do PS2 numbers right out of the gate, it was
> designed for a long term future (IMO this is obvious considering costly hardware
> specs).

Examples:

- Two times 128 MB of flash memory, much of which still unused. It would have been cheaper to go with 1 smaller chip. For example the 360 only has 16 MB firmware flash memory.
- Blu-Ray drive, if the PS3 is to be an interesting HD console 5 years from now this is crucial. More space for lots of good quality textures, top audio and high definition movie compatibility. Microsoft went with much cheaper old technology.
- Cell processor combined with expensive low latency main RAM, Sony looked well where the market is heading. Multi-CPU-like design is the way to go, it co-designed the Cell processor to allow for best performance, performance efficiency on an as power efficient and small chip as possible. Microsoft went for a simpler chip design with just 3 cores with shared L2 cache between all cores (vs 8 CPUs each with dedicated high speed memory and enormous onchip bandwidth). IBM is clearly more enthusiastic with regard to Cell technology for good reasons.
- Default (easily upgradeable from many different manufacturers) harddrive and high speed Gigabit ethernet, crucial for extensive online functionality.
- Important standards integrated like BlueTooth, Wi-Fi and HDMI 1.3.

The PS3 wasn't designed cheaply or to be compromised for long term potential in any way.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

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obieslut said:

Yes you heard me, i think that the ps3 will sell over 2 million units in Others alone in the month of december

 

Ok here it goes

in 2001 the ps2 sold a total of 1,833,321 units in the month of december.

The ps3 has outsold the ps2 all year long in others.

ps3 total for this year in others at the moment is 2,717,595 the ps2 in 2001 for the same period is 1,720,879

so thats 2,717,595 vs 1,720,879

 

so if the trend is anything to go buy the ps3 should be selling around the 3mil mark in december 08

i have checked many years of the ps2 with the the same time frame as the ps3 and the data all points to the ps3 selling around 3 mill

 

What i did was this 5th jan 08 to last week of june 28th 08. and compared it to the ps2 with the same time frame from each year and the correlaion it has with the sales in december.

 

2001 ps2 jan to june 1,720,879 month of dec 1,833,321

2002 ps2 jan to june 2,236,327 month of dec 2,173,501

2003 ps2 jan to june 2,251,616 month of dec 2,182,023

 

Not possible except the ps3 drops to the ps2's price in Europe in the same time period which won't happen.

 



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@ johnsobas

1) they planned to lose 3.3 billion dollars in the first 2 years


The PS3 design team knew this. Short term investors and some Sony management may not have been too happy. I am sure some would have preferred huge short term bonusses. Just having Blu-Ray onboard may have been enough for them.

2) they planned to let the wii wipe the floor with them especially in their home market


I am sure some Sony management may have been shocked by the success of the Wii, but IMO the Wii changes nothing with regard to the PS3's long term outlook nor much of the PS3's current market performance. Selling at Wii levels early on would have been far more costly.

3) they planned to let the 360 take most of the 3rd party exclusives from them, and let Wii take all the Japanese support


The 360 took nothing from the PS3. Grand Theft Auto was always multi-platform. The game was to be an Amiga exclusive, the project crossed over to the PC when Commodore bankrupted. Capcom in general has always been a multi-platform supporting company, they will only pick sides when there's a clear winner (near market domination), that's not yet the case. They will continue to support all platforms for the foreseable future.

8) they planned to get rid of BC


Of course not, they did however plan to cut the PS2 chips out of the PS3 design. Implementing software compatibility is feasible for the long term.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

MikeB said:

@ johnsobas

1) they planned to lose 3.3 billion dollars in the first 2 years


The PS3 design team knew this. Short term investors and some Sony management may not have been too happy. I am sure some would have preferred huge short term bonusses. Just having Blu-Ray onboard may have been enough for them.

2) they planned to let the wii wipe the floor with them especially in their home market


I am sure some Sony management may have been shocked by the success of the Wii, but IMO the Wii changes nothing with regard to the PS3's long term outlook nor much of the PS3's current market performance. Selling at Wii levels early on would have been far more costly.

3) they planned to let the 360 take most of the 3rd party exclusives from them, and let Wii take all the Japanese support


The 360 took nothing from the PS3. Grand Theft Auto was always multi-platform. The game was to be an Amiga exclusive, the project crossed over to the PC when Commodore bankrupted. Capcom in general has always been a multi-platform supporting company, they will only pick sides when there's a clear winner (near market domination), that's not yet the case. They will continue to support all platforms for the foreseable future.

8) they planned to get rid of BC


Of course not, they did however plan to cut the PS2 chips out of the PS3 design. Implementing software compatibility is feasible for the long term.

This post blows my mind.  I've never seen someone so in denial.  Even almost all the PS3 fans will agree that Sony made many mistakes, and many things that have happened were not part of their plan.   There are many things you said that don't make any sense, but to say that Sony lost 3.3 billion dollars as part of a plan I think only you and Crazzy might agree with that one.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

@ johnsobas

I don't care what you think, I just share my perspective which originates from well before the PS3 launched.

IMO it was obvious they would loose a great deal of money. I think some within Sony may have been more shocked that their gaming division generated a profit for the last quarter of 2007.

I know the Final Fantasy managers said they were shocked by the PS3's low market pricing. It's clear Sony is planning to go all the way on this one, willing to digg deep into their pockets.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

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MikeB said:

@ johnsobas

I don't care what you think, I just share my perspective which originates from well before the PS3 launched.

IMO it was obvious they would loose a great deal of money. I think some within Sony may have been more shocked that their gaming division generated a profit for the last quarter of 2007.

I know the Final Fantasy managers said they were shocked by the PS3's low market pricing. It's clear Sony is planning to go all the way on this one, willing to digg deep into their pockets.

you can continue to believe something that makes no logical sense in the midst of massive evidence against it, but i don't see the point.  I can understand us disagreeing on the degree to which this was or was not planned by Sony, but it's pretty damn obvious to anybody who has been paying attention to the PS3 that many of the things have not been going according to plan.

 



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

Personally, i can see it hitting 2.5 million MAX in Others mainly because of Motorstorm: Pacific Rift, which hits in October.

http://www.gamestop.com/browse/search.aspx?N=0&Ntk=TitleKeyword&Ntx=mode+matchallpartial&Ntt=Motorstorm

But it's effect might begin to fade by Christmas though



MikeB said:

@ BengaBenga

Seriously, Sony doesn't have a clue what it's doing. At the very least GT5 and God of War 3 should have been ready for this holiday. They have some momentum going, but I think the weak holiday line-up will kill the momentum.


I can see a strategy.

The PS3 wasn't designed to do PS2 numbers right out of the gate, it was designed for a long term future (IMO this is obvious considering costly hardware specs). I agree that long term everything could turn out well for Sony, but Sony DID expect a lot from PS3, otherwise they wouldn't have put so much money in it. Besides the recent complaints from Sony towards SCE prove that you're wrong here.

IMO short term goals:

1) Push HD DVD out of the market. (accomplished) Yep, very important for Sony, probably the reason why Sony hasn't been overly harsh on SCE's management
2) Provide people a good reason for upgrading towards HDTV. The PS3 already had a very positive effect on the HDTV market according to market research. Sony expects to become market leader by 2011 in unit sales, they are already very close to the current market leader in terms of revenue.
3) Outsell the 360 to not allow Microsoft to take much advantage of cheaper pricing. (going well so far) wow, coming from complete domination of Microsoft to playing catch-up is NOT a good thing from Sony's perspective
4) Keep the PS2 attractive and in mass production, penetrate economically less wealthy markets. Good point, although PS2 is seriously decreasing in sales
5) Get consoles online.

IMO long term goals:

1) Mature the PS3 software library and operating system. Reduce the PS3 costs and adapt the hardware to suit the mass market the upcoming years.
2) The PS3 will make the transition towards a PS4 more seamless, take Playstation Home with you to your next console, easier to implement backwards compatibility, game engine modernization making it also easier to get the most out of follow-up consoles.
3) Long lifecycle, eventually the most interesting multi-featured console on the market and of course to better PS2 sales when the time is right. It remains to be seen, losing consoles have in the past never been able to extend their lifecycle very long. It is risky to extend the PS3 when the new 360 arrives.

IMO most of this couldn't be achieved with a PS2.5.

You make good points, however I think you're being too positive. The main mistake you're making is to think that Sony didn't expect to deliver the new PS2, they did. Their pressure for profitability might lose them the American market.

Also I'm really curious about what will happen when Microsoft launches its new console not one but say 3 year ahead of PS4. It might work totally counterproductive for Sony if games like GTA complete change ship because of that.

 



There's no way PS3 will hit 3 million in others alone.

Who believes that it will sell an average of 775k consoles each week during december??

And that would probably mean that the highest week would see sales of about 1.4 - 1.2 million ONLY in others. I don't know what the current record is but there's no way the PS3 will come close to it at that price, just to name a reason.

Even the Wii will not be able to sell that.



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@ BengaBenga

Besides the recent complaints from Sony towards SCE prove that you're wrong here.


I don't know what complaint you're pointing to specifically, but I think we are talking about two different things. Those in charge of corporate financials (those who have to please investors) vs those who designed the PS3 (those who wanted to set a long term goal for the product).

Due to relatively quick financial results with the PS1 and PS2, the PS3 team was given (more) free hands to do what they wanted to accomplish for the long run. But the end result is a product which finally made me interested in consoles again.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales