Keep praying, but the numbers don't lie and this kind of trend will not die so easily...

Not a particularly agressive prediction.

90% of this website believe it will surpass 40 million easily..... probably either the last week in November or the first week of December (ending the year about 43-44 million)

I dont see why it shouldnt reach 40 million.

While this works out close to correct (luck?), your working is wrong.

You are adding monthly production numbers to a previous shipment figure, the two different numbers can not be mixed easily.

We can (like I have done before) make estimates about the time it takes from produced to shipped, which I think is about 5-6 weeks.
If we assume that the jump to 2.4 million produced starts on the 1st July, then the shipments won't catch up until 6 weeks later, so it's more like 4.5 months at 2.4 million, and 7.5 months at 1.8 million.
Of course this gets messed up when they do things like air shipping in December.

I think perhaps it is easier to take consoles away from the target at the end of the fiscal year.

So 24.45 million (shipped end of March) + 25 million (projected shipment for this fiscal year) = 49.45 million.

The 3 months Jan-March of 2009 will all be at 2.4 million production. So we should take away 7.2 million from the 49.45. However again factor in air shipments, if Nintendo do it by a similar percentage as last year then that moves almost 2 million from 2009 back into 2008.

Therefore shipments at the end of 2008 would be 45.25 million.

Like I said, it worked out pretty much the same number, it's just that your way of working it out is flawed.

The Wii had 19.6m sold (ww) at the start of this year. Its now at 28.0m - this is the last week before the end of the mid year - and it will hit 28.4m (or close).

Thats 8.8m sold in the FIRST 6 months of the year - so I think its guaranteed it will see at LEAST the same number in the second half of the year.

That takes it to 37.2m.

Xmas(Nov/Dec?) usually comes to about 40% of the total sales of the year - I think its safe to say it should romp past 40m.

I'm pretty comfortable with the figures in my sig for now (see below). I initially thought I had hugely understated the PS3 - I think its closer now (but still understated). 360 is still an unknown, we'll know more in two weeks (E3).

(edit - fixed numbers...)

28.07

so it won't manage 29 million next update unless there is a major upward revision.

^ Sorry, fixed numbers :(

For a quick comparison:
- 360 has sold approx 3.5m in the first 6 months this year
- PS3 has sold approx 4.6m in the first 6 months this year
- total sales (inc. this week coming up) in half year 17m units (approx)

- 360 has 20% of hardware sales in first 6 months
- PS3 has 27% of hardware sales in first 6 months
- Wii has 52% of hardware sales in first 6 months

It will pass 40m by the end of the year.

I predict an exact amount of 41,789,351 Wii's will be sold by end 08.

Give or take 1 unit.

they have already sold about 9mil...another 12 should not be a proble including christmas