The only reason the Wii hasn't shifted 30 million consoles already is because Nintendo can't make 30 million consoles that fast. This race is over.

someday.. someday =))

depends on GT5, MGS4, FFXIII, KZ2 releases. =) Sooner those games are released, sooner 10 mln. will be reached. :)

At the moment, on a launch-aligned basis, PS3 and 360 are tracking fairly identically.  The Hardware Comparison Charts contain data for the "Other" region now, right?  I remember that for a short period it was only NA+Japan.

I looked at that also, but I don't think that trend will continue because the 360 will pull away once it has a price drop. There's a pretty substantial gap between the two already at $479 vs $599, and MS has far more wiggle room to drop the hammer whenever they want to and knock $100 off all three 360 models across the board. Such a price cut, putting the Core at $199, the Premium at $299, and the Elite at $379, will prompt a radical change in those launch-aligned sales charts.

If Nintendo doesn't catch up with demand before Metriod comes out, Metroid won't help sales of hardware simply because there will be no hardware to sell.

I'm having trouble determining if it reached 10 million faster or slower than the original Xbox, although it's pretty obvious that it is close.

>>Surely the Wii has the better momentum - now. But I dont know, what happens if Halo will be released and in the holidays. Could be enough to be first at 15 mil.

 I think Nintendo's got a large stockpile of Wii units that they're saving for two events.

 1: Holiday season '07 (but of course).

 2: Metroid Prime 3: Corruption.

I'll bet you Nintendo's going to ship a larger percentage of their consoles specially for the launch of MP3 so people can purchase the both. I mean, seriously. A game that SHOULD move consoles is therefore being held back if it DOESN'T. MP3 is capable of selling out thousands upon thousands of Wii systems, but only if those Wii units are available.

 Let me illustrate. Say there are 9m Wii systems sold by MP3 launch, with zero systems available. MP3 sells 2m in the first two months (kids that were FP2/Metroid fans + Wii owners already). Wii sales continue at the usual rate, MP3 fails to move consoles, game slips between the cracks, fails to reach true potential. After generation's end, game sells ~3.5m total.

Okay, so now let's say there are still 9m Wii systems already sold by MP3 launch, but Nintendo ships an extra 1m consoles during that game's release window. Now, MP3 moves a million consoles + sells the 2m it would've without having systems available. The game earns far more attention, and it continues moving consoles well into the holiday season. Sells well into '08, when Nintendo announces "Player's Choice" games for Wii, effectively dropping the price of said games (like MP3) to $20-$25. Game sells ~9m total.

 These numbers are in no way expectations, or predictions, or educated guesses, so don't go all, "OMG WTF UR DUM D00D WTF DO u MEEN DOZ NUMBRZ SUK."

 It's merely illustration. Point is: MP3 will be far more effective as a game if Nintendo strategizes and allows for it to move consoles. Plus, if the game plays anything like it looks like it will, it only deserves that much.

 I seriously doubt the Xbox 360 premium system will cost $299 at holidays this year......

Congratz

I've read a lot of these "stockpiling" suggestions, and I don't see the point. Why save and sell tomorrow something that you could sell today? Wii's are not sitting on the shelves. Demand is still greater than supply, and by all indications will continue that way through the Christmas season and into 2008. There is no reason to save consoles for MP3's release or for Christmas 2007. Nintendo doesn't 'need' a product or an event to stimulate sales. What Nintendo needs is more Wiis on trucks going to stores to satisfy demand at the $249 price point before Microsoft drops the 360 Core price to $199.

What would be the point in manufacturing something to ship to a warehouse and put in storage (at considerable expense) when you could sell it today? What if (unfathomably, I know) consumer backlash caused Wii demand to inexplicably collapse?

In fact, not selling consoles right now would not only cost Nintendo money in warehousing expense, but it would cost them huge amounts of profit in lost game sales. If Nintendo weren't selling consoles and holding them for October - December 2007, customers who finally get one then will be less inclined to buy Excitetruck, WarioWare, Twilight Princess, Mario Party 8, and a whole bunch of other Nintendo titles, either at full price or any other price. Certainly, by then, few if any of these titles will still be $49.99, plus there will be far more third party competition on the shelves competing for buyers' Wii-spending dollars. Those are lost software sales for Nintendo. That's six months or more that people haven't been buying the console, so therefore haven't been buying games, peripherals, accessories, Wii points cards, or even an issue of Nintendo Power.

There is no benefit or business sense in building a product to not sell it.

BTW, your numbers don't work, because in one scenario you say 9M, then in the other you suggest 9M + 1M that were withheld. If they weren't withheld, then your first scenario should have began with 10M.