Based upon the huge drop in the Japan previews' sales for MGS4, do you think that the drop in sales from week 1 to week 2 will be the biggest recorded drop in the history of Vgchartz? So do you think that this trend will continue around the world?

If so what do you think the implications are for the lifetime sales of this title?

Will PS3 sales return to their pre-mgs4 state as if nothing had happened in a couple of weeks, like all the other big HD releases so far?

I personally believe that it could be the biggest drop in History, because its a hardcore niche title thats been hyped since forever, so most of the people who will buy the title, will buy it as soon as it becomes available. I also wonder if such a drop will cap the total lifetime sales at under 3 million, putting it in the same league in terms of sales as games like RFOM1 and Assassins creed for the PS3.

Insert your own speculation below.

I expect similar drops elsewhere, maybe not to the same extent as in Japan though. PAL will see the smallest drop of the three.

I agree that hardware will drop back to pre release levels in a couple of weeks.

Really doubt it. A major Japan drop was expected, it had an enourmous first week in an area where they aren't as many PS3's and games are generally frontloaded. Others first week was very average, meaning the drop won't be nearly as big. America should have a fairly high drop, not as high as Japan though.

Just think, the first week sales show that Japan sold more than Others with a third the install base.

Oh, and the bundle will guarantee a pass of that 3 million number.

I predicted two weeks ago that the hardware boost would be almost completely nullified a month after MGS4 hit. With the Japan preview in, it appears that prediction stands in good stead.

As for software in the USA and EU? If its remotely like Japan, that is just very, very sad.

 Its not sad, perhaps it just proves the saying.

The more hardcore/niche a game is, the bigger the dropoff from week one to two.

I guess that says CODIV and Halo 3 aren't as hardcore because they're still selling after so long.

I was expecting it to have a huge drop in japan, But i was not expecting it to be this low. Still, it wasn't a huge shock, but i don't think it'll have such a huge drop in Europe or America. My expectations for this week are

America- 300k

Europe- 250-300k

And as for PS3 this week i think it'll be around 210k WW, and i expect it to stay above 200k for about a month.

It was expected for such a greta opening week and such a hardcore title. I don't expect it to fall so much on Others/NA, but, yeah, it will fall. But, eventually, it will show good legs. After all, it is the best PS3 game, isn't it?

Percentage wise, maybe, but it simply didn't sell enough units to have the biggest drop in history, so no.

I don't think any one expected 80k every week after MGS4.

I don't think anyone expected 25-45k a week after it, or what will no doubt be less in another week.