leo-j said: Even if they cancel 10 more games, there are still more than what microsoft has to offer, sony has the games, they are one of the biggest 1st party devs, but they arent releasing them yet.

You honestly believe that leo?

Gobias said: selnor said: Lets not get twisted here. MGS4 is amazing. But as I said. 1.3 million in terms of big exclusive and for MGS4 is good but not great for Sony. As I mentioned other games this gen gave other consoles a much bigger boost and sold far more on first day. In terms of between now and February what do Sony have left?. See LBP I expect to sell 2-3 million entire life. Resistance 2 I expect 2-3 million entire life. (Look at R1) Now 360 between now and February. Gears 2 I expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day sales. Fable 2 I expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day sales. BK3 I expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day. Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. I also Expect 350,000 - 400,000 360's sold in first week of Gears 2. Then theres Japan. I really believe that 3 exclusive JRPG's this year for the 360 will have an impact on sales for 360 in Japan. Again I refer to my sig. And theres games I havent mentioned which should get to 2 or 3 million or also.   Those predictions are beyond Crazzyman levels. MGS4's success has really made you lose it, hasn't it?

 Haha... wayyyyy beyond Crazzyman levels.

I think, as I'm sure many others do, that the 360 is a lost cause in Japan.

a price drop always help, but with the type of system the ps3 is, a 300 dollars is a much better deal than a $250 360.

For a blue-ray player alone.

starcraft said: DMeisterJ said: Price drops? Maybe. But MS is focused on profit now, so I don't know about that. Supply Constraint? Bull-shit. False. There is no "periodic region-specific supply issues". I mean, let's think about it. They sure as hell aren't in Japan, and Others, and America's sales have been healthy, and the same as of late. If MS isn't saying supply issues, why are you? I also didn't know that release dates could push a console. And Too human... Well, I won't get into that. But a game in development for ten years across multiple platforms, I don't think that it'll turn out too well... And you neglect a few thing in your post, such as, if Sony actually replenishes supply of the 80 gig, which will carry sales much more than just the game itself. And also, MS and Sony are at about the same position to price cut. If one does it, the other one will follow suit. Found your post As for Too Human, Microsoft are bringing it up ever other moment.  Even if its not great, it will be decent. And Sony isn't nearly as comfortable with the prospect of a price cut as Microsoft is.  It lost a tonne last quarter, whereas MS profited even when you take into account they probably moneyhatter Square Enix like nothing else last quarter.

I deleted all the speculation to make your argument more powerful.

There is no proof of a new SKU or a price drop.  A price drop is estimated since they haven't had one in a year, but no evidence points to that.  No leaked documents or anything like that, same with the new sku.  

Especially with E3 around the corner, this time last year rumours ran rampant about a price drop for the PS3, and it was true.  Documents leaked, snitches snitched, etc.  NOw look at this year.  None of that.

It's moreso wishful thinking on your and most peoples part.  They've spent so much money buying exclusives, I don't believe they have the money to price drop.

starcraft, also, do you expect (like some people here do) the Wii to start 'stealing' the big budget projects from the HD consoles?...Or do you think that most 3rd parties now see PS3 + 360 as a single console and think PS3 + 360 > Wii?

Gobias said: selnor said: Lets not get twisted here. MGS4 is amazing. But as I said. 1.3 million in terms of big exclusive and for MGS4 is good but not great for Sony. As I mentioned other games this gen gave other consoles a much bigger boost and sold far more on first day. In terms of between now and February what do Sony have left?. See LBP I expect to sell 2-3 million entire life. Resistance 2 I expect 2-3 million entire life. (Look at R1) Now 360 between now and February. Gears 2 I expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day sales. Fable 2 I expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day sales. BK3 I expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day. Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. I also Expect 350,000 - 400,000 360's sold in first week of Gears 2. Then theres Japan. I really believe that 3 exclusive JRPG's this year for the 360 will have an impact on sales for 360 in Japan. Again I refer to my sig. And theres games I havent mentioned which should get to 2 or 3 million or also.   Those predictions are beyond Crazzyman levels. MGS4's success has really made you lose it, hasn't it?

Which side of the bed do you Fanboys get up on?. MGS4 is a success for Konami. But for Sony it will not be what they were hoping. Look without your fanboy goggles for a minute. I'll repeat. Halo 3 1.9 million First day sales in US alone. GTA 4 3.6 million first day sales. So for Sony to hitch the sales take off for PS3 on MGS4 (which they have) and it to be nowhere near other titles which sold systems better, the rest of the year will definatley be M$'s in terms of hardware sales. Quote me in February if you like, but I think I maybe only wrong on 1 game.

 

lol, I think you made a typo in your sig

" I also predict that 360 sales in Japan by February will be a steady 12,000 a week or higher."

 

fixed it for you

Starcraft, there are a few too many assumptions in your original post for me to hop on board with your thesis. To begin with, I think there's a less-than-even chance that we'll be seeing a 360 price drop this summer. Microsoft Corporation needs money (there's a sentence you never thought you'd hear!), and Microsoft's gaming division needs to start proving its worth very soon for the impatient investors, many of whom were skeptical about the X-Box line from the get-go and who have begun to demand that it shut down. Microsoft is wisely aiming for profitability right now, and a price drop won't really help too much in that regard. And yes, there are rumors about a price drop going around, but that just makes it another week on the internet, doesn't it?

As you yourself have said, Gears 2 is not going to move many consoles, as the system already has the original game. I'm highly skeptical about the value of Too Human, which doesn't look too hot gameplay-wise and which is virtually unknown outside of the most devoted of internet forums. Left 4 Dead has some potential, but I think most people who are really interested in Valve's works still see them as a PC company, and will buy the product there: sales of the Orange Box on the 360 are healthy, but they're almost certainly dwarfed by those on the PC.

That leaves two games. The original Fable sold on a mountain of hype as being the greatest RPG ever: when people actually played it, many were underwhelmed. While the sequel may be better, it'll take time for word of mouth to spread the news, so if it has an effect on console sales, it'll be a minor bump spread out over several months. I'd also like to point out that I haven't heard too much excitement about this game outside of X-Box fans. Banjo might maybe have some effect, but it'll be at launch rather than before, since of the two types of people it might attract X-Box fanatics already own a 360, and "casual" fans rarely buy a console before a game releases. The fact that this title again is unknown outside the internet does not help you case.

DMeisterJ said: I deleted all the speculation to make your argument more powerful. There is no proof of a new SKU or a price drop. A price drop is estimated since they haven't had one in a year, but no evidence points to that. No leaked documents or anything like that, same with the new sku. Especially with E3 around the corner, this time last year rumours ran rampant about a price drop for the PS3, and it was true. Documents leaked, snitches snitched, etc. NOw look at this year. None of that. It's moreso wishful thinking on your and most peoples part. They've spent so much money buying exclusives, I don't believe they have the money to price drop.

I fully acknowledge that the majority of the hypothesis is speculation.  Its also obvious that if a price cut or SKU revision (or both) dont hit at or around E3 my entire theory falls down.

There were numerous rumours of a 60GB Pro a few months back, and if its happening then E3 is the last chance to get it out there.  And many analyists (oh god! Pachter) have speculated that Microsoft will (and needs to) make a price cut at E3.

Microsoft lost a lot of potential profit in Q3 (Q1 calendar year) because of the Europe price cut and probably buying all the JRPG exclusives they just announced.  Imagine what it cost to write off 80 Euros on every 360 sitting on the shelf in Europe at the time of the price drop.  But word has it they have already started producing the new cheaper chips, and that they'll hit stores proper in August.

If Microsoft can profit in the slowest quarter of the year with a MASSIVE EU price cut, they can cut the price in the US by a smallish amount and still make money off the console.  Just another $50, not as big as the EU cut. 

 

selnor said: Gobias said: selnor said: Lets not get twisted here. MGS4 is amazing. But as I said. 1.3 million in terms of big exclusive and for MGS4 is good but not great for Sony. As I mentioned other games this gen gave other consoles a much bigger boost and sold far more on first day. In terms of between now and February what do Sony have left?. See LBP I expect to sell 2-3 million entire life. Resistance 2 I expect 2-3 million entire life. (Look at R1) Now 360 between now and February. Gears 2 I expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day sales. Fable 2 I expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day sales. BK3 I expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day. Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. I also Expect 350,000 - 400,000 360's sold in first week of Gears 2. Then theres Japan. I really believe that 3 exclusive JRPG's this year for the 360 will have an impact on sales for 360 in Japan. Again I refer to my sig. And theres games I havent mentioned which should get to 2 or 3 million or also.   Those predictions are beyond Crazzyman levels. MGS4's success has really made you lose it, hasn't it? Which side of the bed do you Fanboys get up on?. MGS4 is a success for Konami. But for Sony it will not be what they were hoping. Look without your fanboy goggles for a minute. I'll repeat. Halo 3 1.9 million First day sales in US alone. GTA 4 3.6 million first day sales. So for Sony to hitch the sales take off for PS3 on MGS4 (which they have) and it to be nowhere near other titles which sold systems better, the rest of the year will definatley be M$'s in terms of hardware sales. Quote me in February if you like, but I think I maybe only wrong on 1 game.

 You seem to think MGS has EVER been near Halo or GTA in sales, which is completely wrong.

Please check these links:

http://vgchartz.com/games/index.php?name=metal+gear+solid&console=&developer=&publisher=&genre=&keyword=&order=Sales

http://vgchartz.com/games/index.php?name=halo&console=&developer=&publisher=&genre=&keyword=&order=Sales

http://vgchartz.com/games/index.php?name=grand+theft+auto&console=&developer=&publisher=&genre=&keyword=&order=Sales


MGS has never even come close to GTA or Halo. So why did you think it would this time around?