After reading people using different logic to surmise if game is a success or not I believe I have found a way takes in account a couple of viewpoints.

Number of shipments shipped is the way I believe a game should be judged a success or not. I'll try to explain in more detail by giving some reasons.

This is conjecture but I will surmise that the first shipment size is based on afew factors.

1.Pre orders(obivious)

2.Hype(Big enough hype or little hype could drastically effect number 3 and 4)

3.Publisher expectations(Since it the publishers decide how much to make and ship)

4.Retail expectations( Its posssible for a game to sell bad a be a fiancial success if reatilers buy a big enough amount beacause of hype and intial pre orders).

5.Budget(Effect how many can be made and shipped and how to much is needed to recover losses therefor increasing or decreasing amount shipped.)

If these factors are a direct reason on the size of the first shipment that it can be reasoned that if game Does Not sell through the first shipment in  a given amount a time (lets say about a half of year) . Then that game can be called a flop or a fiancial failure  especially if number 5 is not satisfied. Also be reminded if number three is not satisfied then it means wasted money as the publisher would have over produced discs and lose capital on that and fees for storage and/or disposal which is wasted money . I also believe most first shipments are just big enough to cover total projected cost of producing, liscensing, and  advertising a game. This is why I believe that passing the first shipment is the most critical step in the success of a game.

If the above reasons are correct than any more than one shipment would make that game a fiancial success there fore in my opinion any game that does not get past it first intial shipment in a given amount time should be called a flop while games that have second, thirds,or more should be called successes.

I would like to here guy thoughts about this. Constructive criticism is defiantely welcome and if you guys have methods fo your own you would like to share to judge if a game is a success ,please share. Debating and good conversation among users are my main  goal of this thread.

1. Sales of the game obviously.
2. Sequels outsells prequel is a good sign.
3. Large number of pre-orders.
4. Good reviews assist sales, but that is not always the case.

I only care about 2 types of success: sales and my personal enjoyment. These have nothing to do with each other.

I like your 2nd shipment theory though. Where would we find out if games get 2nd shipments?

A game's success is determined by whether it achieved the publisher's expectations or not... It's that simple.

That's because the publisher's expectations already account for a lot of other stuff, the most important of which is the cost of making the game.

Thanx for the input guys.

Compan never directly give that information out. It only get mentions when thier previous shipment sells faster than expected when there is news of them rushing another shipment over to fullfill demand.