At least for the first 4-6 weeks

Given the current trend and the maximum weekly sales lead attained by PS3 during the last months, it's difficult, but not impossible. What could help PS3 and hamper XB360 is that many diehard XB fans should have already bought the 360 when Halo 3 was released and many of the remaining ones, during the last weeks, thanks to GTA IV, so in the hardcore market, the sole where Wii doesn't pwn them, PS3 should still have more potential remaining to boost sales with new releases.

Honestly, Sony fans, why must you set yourselves up for disappointment in this way? We go through this with every single game that comes out. Will Metal Gear Solid boost hardware sales? Of course, probably a nice boost of something like 25-30%, and tailing off over the following weeks. Will it in any way affect larger sales trends? Certainly not.

Metal Gear Solid is a particularly bad example, since it's literally the poster child for "game that everyone online thinks is amazing, and everyone else could care less about". Don't expect anything resembling the boost from Grand Theft Auto, or even Halo.

It's a very educated guess.  I'm looking at recent trends, the sales of previous games in the Metal Gear Solid series, the installed base of the PS3 and then I'm adding in the unbelivably unlimited power of the Cell to come to those numbers.

I have to be realistic, though -- of those 10 million, maybe 8 million will buy it. 

I almost agree with you here JJSeth, I think the ps3 will hit 15 million at the same point as 360 hitting 20 million, or a week either way...

I hope you do know vgchartz is wrong. MS already said long ago that they have 19 million sold and 20 million shipped. I'm 100% sure it's 19.something now.

http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=140616

That's what happens when you guess numbers. And to the MGS fanboys sales will be good, but it won't be even close to mainstream games like SSB or Halo. I honestly think Gear 2 will outsell MGS4 mainly because it's coming out near Winter and MGS4 comes out when people don't have as much money to spend.

Hardly, but nothing would make me happier. Mgs4 will make an impact, but not that much. Still, x360 is definitely loosing this year big time (ww).

 Actually it is 19 million shipped. That's straight from MS' quarterly reports.

Come back when you can find a quote on 20 million shipped FROM MS.

an easy comparison

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You have no idea how powerful the Cell is, do you? Don't talk all technical on me, I know that the Cell has barely had it's potential touched and it can do 100x as much as we've seen. Developers have said so.  Next year you'll see how powerful the Cell is and then you'll want a PS3 very badly, but it will be too late because it will be sold out everywhere.

Imagine trying to find a next gen console sold out everywhere!