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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction Wiifit will have a sell trough of 75% against the wiiinstallbase

Ail on 30 May 2008

I woudn't be surprised if most consoles have an early retirement rate of 25% or more ( meaning they get left in a corner after a while and no more games are bought of them ) so makes it hard for any game to get to 75% attach rate :P



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

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TheBigFatJ on 30 May 2008

There's simply no way Wii Fit can have a 75% attach rate. It's not for everyone. I bet you that not even 50% of Wii owners in America are interested in getting more fit and willing to do something about it. And America is most likely the strongest market for this game.

If the balance board reaches 50% of Wiis, that'd be phenominal.  But I'd guess it would be under 40%. 



Smidlee on 30 May 2008
densiyrex said:
tabsina said:
Consider that wii sports, despite being sold with EVERY SINGLE WII in europe and america, is only at an attach ratio of 88%... i think wiifit could do very well in its attach rate, but 75% is impossible without becoming a part of the standard package

If you want to play any of the boards games coming you will need the balance board.

Ok they might sell it seperated so lets say the board gets an attachment rate of 75% not wiifit.

I just named wiifit because it's packed in now.

As We Ski has already proven this isn't necessary true since you can play We Ski easily without the board. Of course the board adds to what is just otherwise an average game.

I fail to see the board outside Wii fit sell anywhere near (let along do better) Tony Hawk's Pro Skater. Just like steering wheels are limit to racing the board will mostly to limited to Skiing, Snowboarding,Surfing and Stating. Wii fit already has two of the four covered.

Still I believe Wii fit will sell the board as an exercise tool more than any game would.

 



TheSource on 30 May 2008

Its at 2 million on 6 million machines in Japan (33%).

May be more successful in the west (35-40% in early 2009)...but 35%/40% is probably the upper limit on its attach rate, and worldwide I think its closer to 25-30%.

Wii really has no chance of selling less than ~50-60 million now, so even a 33% attach rate would be ~20 million games sold. At $90 a pop, thats almost $2 billion in Wii Fit sales. If Wii gets to like 100 million, 140 million, 200 million or whatever it is, the game could potentially be packaged with Wii later in life. Even a 20% attach rate at 200 million would be 40 million units.

My hunch is Wii gets to 80-160 million and the game has a 25% attach rate lifetime. 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

obieslut on 30 May 2008
densiyrex said:

Yes, this might sound crazy but I believe that end of the wii/wiifit lifetime. Wiifit will have sold to 75% of the wii install base. Why?

First the hype around wiifit is incredible.

Second wiifit is pointing at one of the pain points in the world (weight)

thirth a lot of developers already announced balance board support. Even people that dont have a Wii yet but want to get skate-it just to try it out will need a wii and balanceboard . So that install base will be 1 on 1.

I think the attachrate of wiifit will be more then wii play.

Prove me wrong?


 prove it correct



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bbsin on 30 May 2008
The Ghost of RubangB said:
I don't think anything will ever have a 75% attach rate for anything, except maybe razors and razor blades.

And tooth paste with tooth brushes. Don't forget about Cups and water also.



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mrstickball on 30 May 2008

Somehow, I have this feeling WiiFit is going to be nowhere near 30% attach ratio.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

jlauro on 30 May 2008
mrstickball said:
Somehow, I have this feeling WiiFit is going to be nowhere near 30% attach ratio.

 So you are saying 75% too?



rocketpig on 30 May 2008

I swear, lately the Sales forum has become CrazyLand.

I predict that Ninjabread Man 2 will have a 101% attach ratio!

*swigs cough syrup*




Or check out my new webcomic: http://selfcentent.com/

superchunk on 30 May 2008
superchunk said:
Sorry, but there is no foreseeable way any game will have a 75% attach rate unless it is packed in for the greater majority of its life.

Wii Sports in Japan has < 75% attach rate and that is for a game that actually sells the hardware.

Wii Play has < 75% attach rate and anyone buying a new Wii and not getting this vs a stand alone wiimote is just stupid. Its only $10 for christ's sake!

So a game that comes with a device that won't be used in even 5% of the games available for the Wii has absolutely no way of reaching >20% attach rate in the life of the machine.

Granted, it will sell really well, and will get far more support than any previous peripheral has ever done on any console. But, 75% is just asking for a spanking.

 To further my point, look at the NES Zapper. Possibly the best utilized addon to a console ever. It was packed in for a large part of the NES's life and it had a decent number of games that used it. However, even without looking it up I can garauntee you it had less than a 40% attach rate.

Please someone look this up as I'm sure I'm right.

I would like to just restate my part in bold.