Brawl by a pretty safe amount. Brawl will break 6 million easy, and likely 7 million. That would mean MGS4 would double the sales of MGS3 on an install base less than 1/4 the size at launch.

And again, that's just to match Brawl, not surpass it.

ROFFLE

I'm sorry,MGS4 has a lot of factors working against it (the major one I would say being install base). That's just not going to happen.

I think that if MGS4 were somehow released on the Wii, Brawl would still demolish it in lifetime sales.

I can't think of a single reason (beyond 'Faith') how someone could come to the conclusion that Metal Gear Solid 4 will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl; to date, I can't think of a single Wii game that didn't outsell its previous installment within 6 months, and at the same time few PS3 games have even approached the level of sales their previous installment had on the PS2.

Brawl by at least 4 millions.

@Bleu-ocelot: Time to step into reality. MGS4 will have a hard time outselling MGS3, while Brawl will outsell Melee this year most probably.

That means Brawl>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>MGS4.

Goodbye

What a statement to be made, and to be made so rudely.

Metal Gear Solid 3 was launched during the 2004 holiday season, when both Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas and Halo 2 were released. Looking at the release period for Metal Gear Solid 4, the Wii and Xbox 360 have almost nothing good that isn't already on the PS3. The only thing close to a big game being released in that time period is Rock Band for the Wii, which will be released in America 10 days after MGS4. And since they're two completely different games aimed at two completely different audiences (plus multi-console owners could've played it on the PS3) then we're not looking at any competition for the game.

MGS3 was almost an afterthought because gamers at the time had so many other games to choose from. Now, Metal Gear Solid 4 will launch at a dry period, and many PS3 owners have been waiting for this game long before launch.

You say goodbye, I say hello (to quote the Beatles). 

 I agree that it'll sell pretty well, but it won't get all of it's gamers back. I expect nothing higher than 4-5 million in lifetime sales. Also, don't forget MGS2 launched the same time as GTA3 and Halo 1, yet it still sold millions. Added to the fact that at that point the ps2 had over 80 million ps2 owners. Are you saying all of them was playing other games? Added to that fact was the ps2 was at the $200 price point. The ps3 cost a lot more, so I just can't see it doing more than 4-5 million. It just isn't that kind of game.

Bleu, it seemed like you just stated your numbers on your opinions, and everyone is supposed to stick to what you say? Yeah, I think not.

Hmm, Pichu, I'm going to be very honest with you, there is no way Mgs4 will lauch with over 2.5 mil 1st week. (to beat Brawl's launch.) ps3's userbase is small, Brawl is a huge franchise, and Brawl still hasn't even launched in the Others region. You seriously think mgs4 will launch with over 3 mil? (like Brawl will when it releases in Others.)

Do people seriously think brawl will only sell 7 million? It feels like this thread is from last year or something. Brawl has sold 5.3 million and hasn't even been released in Europe, is still pretty new in America and hasn't seen a holiday season yet. It has sold 3.5 million in america alone, it should do at least that much in europe lifetime, it should sell a lot more in america, and perhaps another 300-400k or so in Japan.