If the Wii does hit 50% market share, it has to do it by the end of this year, or mid-January. The PS3 has delayed a lot of their top-tier title to 2009 and when they are released, the PS3 will sell much better than it is doing now, which games coming out more frequently.

However, I can't really say if that will work exactly that way because Nintendo hasn't announced ONE SINGLE THING that will come pre-E3/post-E3. If they announce some good things, a monkey wrench could be thrown into my PS3 predictions.

^But what if the PS3's gains are mostly at the expense of the X360? I've seen many weeks where the PS3 gets a boost, the X360 gets a beating.

Also, every day those heavy hitters are delayed, the more the public perception of the PS3 drops. Even when they had finally released, it may be a case of "too little, too late", just like Resident Evil 4 and LoZ:TP for the GameCube.

Another thing to consider in terms of those "blockbuster hit" games on the way is that they don't expand the demographic of the PS3 very much (if at all). A game that sells well isn't necessarily a demographic-expanding game. Games like Wii Fit and Nintendogs are demographic-expanding: they add a new type of appeal to the system which draws in new users. Games like Metal Gear Solid 4 and Killzone 2, however, appeal largely to the demographics which the PS3 has already cornered to quite a degree: the cinematic action game and cinematic FPS game demographics.

 No. As someone who has all three consoles, I can say that the Wii looks annoyingly crappy after playing 360 and PS3 games. And while the control schemes are fun when used right, they're often unneccesarily and improperly utilized on games that would be better with normal controls.

HDTV sales increase everyday, and by 2009 there will be more price cuts on HDTVs, the 360 and PS3.  By then, a lot of people will be over the uniqueness of the Wii and noticing it's weaknesses. Unless Nintendo does something sneaky like a Wii with 1080p and a hard drive, and requires new games to support low and high resolutions (which wouldn't be that hard, PCs have been doing that for decades).

Mr. Ouja, that tells em you don't understand the Wii completely. Wii gamers aren't going to suddenly want 1080p just because the adoption rate of HDTV's increases.

Graphics are not a selling point for Wii games so why would it matter if they don't run in 1080p? It's weakness is valid now, today, ahora. It will be no more valid than it already is by 2009.

As someone who has all three consoles, you are also not a typical consumer. And a typical consumer actually cares more about how well a product suits their need than about how good it looks. Functionality before appearance: what good are pretty graphics if what's on the screen isn't even what you're interested in?

HDTV adoption rate does not have any relation to HD console adoption rate.

Japan has the highest HDTV adoption rate in the world, and yet the Wii is dominating harder there than anywhere else.

I have an HDTV.  I have a Wii.  I don't have a PS3 or a 360 or even a HD video player.

If you think the Wii's weakness is its graphics, you absolutely nothing like the average consumer, who's buying it for the controls.  If you think the controls are a weakness to, then sell it.  You might even turn a profit.

Oh man that day's gonna be such a party here.

Yeah, it is likely. It could stay at 50%. I really doubt it will drop. The Ps3 will get heavy hitters... that will take away from the 360's marketshare. Most of the Wii's audience probably doesn't care about MGS4. (except for the Nintendo fans who had fun with it on the Nes and Cube.)

Here are my reasons as to why it will:

1. The Wii's popularity will maybe triple with WiiFit and the rumored heavy-hitting E3 titles.

2. Price- obvious, but not the total reason why it will sell

3. Casuals will fall head over heels again this year. (comparable to 2007) for the Wii.

4. The most important factor is Production. 2.4 mil consoles in 1 month? I wonder if that was more than the Sony produced for the Ps2 in a single month. This is a BIG number for 1 month.

2.4 * 12= 28.8 mil possible consoles sold in 1 year.