Mr.Ouija, I have no choice but to disagree with what you are saying. I really don't see how graphics will affect its sales.

That's just like saying that the Ps2 lost out to the Xbox. It's graphics were superior at the time.

kylohk said: ^But what if the PS3's gains are mostly at the expense of the X360? I've seen many weeks where the PS3 gets a boost, the X360 gets a beating. Also, every day those heavy hitters are delayed, the more the public perception of the PS3 drops. Even when they had finally released, it may be a case of "too little, too late", just like Resident Evil 4 and LoZ:TP for the GameCube.

You could be right. The 360 demand would go down and people will really start getting tired of waiting for a PS3 exclusive game to come out. There would be no reason to buy a PS3 if you can already get that game on the cheaper Xbox360. Plus, JAPAN, JAPAN, JAPAN. The Xbox360 is not a threat over there and the PS3 won't get much of a hardware boost after MGS4. I don't even know what is coming out for the PS3 after that. If I don't know, the Common public sure as hell doesn't.

Another thing, its pretty funny that those games (RE4, LOZ:TP)  were released on the Wii, and sold more than their GameCube counterparts. 

Off-topic: What could Monster Hunter 3 do to Wii HW/SW sales in Japan? 

EDIT: this is @ bdbdbd

 

I bought my Wii for the controller alone, so I could play new and old games in new ways.



I didn't have a GameCube. I saw the first commercial about the Wii remote, and I preordered it as soon as I could. It's the only system I've ever preordered. I immediately had a vision and saw the whole revolution happen. Nothing's surprised me since.

I still think the average consumer is buying it for the controls. They see somebody play tennis by swinging and then they absolutely have to touch it. It's contagious. 4 friends of mine bought Wiis after coming to my Wii Sports parties in November and December 2006.

The wii will hit 50%, but when is the more important question

The Ghost of RubangB said: EDIT: this is @ bdbdbd   I bought my Wii for the controller alone, so I could play new and old games in new ways. I didn't have a GameCube. I saw the first commercial about the Wii remote, and I preordered it as soon as I could. It's the only system I've ever preordered. I immediately had a vision and saw the whole revolution happen. Nothing's surprised me since. I still think the average consumer is buying it for the controls. They see somebody play tennis by swinging and then they absolutely have to touch it. It's contagious. 4 friends of mine bought Wiis after coming to my Wii Sports parties in November and December 2006.

The TGS Wii Remote unveiling sold the Wii to me too, but as you pointed out yourself, it was all about games. The controls are pretty worthless without the software that supports them. Sure the controls do play their part, since the software has to designed the specific controls in mind, but eventually it all comes down to games. People don't buy the Wii because it has fun new controls, they buy the Wii because it has fun new games that they can play.

bdbdbd said: The Ghost of RubangB said: EDIT: this is @ bdbdbd   I bought my Wii for the controller alone, so I could play new and old games in new ways. I didn't have a GameCube. I saw the first commercial about the Wii remote, and I preordered it as soon as I could. It's the only system I've ever preordered. I immediately had a vision and saw the whole revolution happen. Nothing's surprised me since. I still think the average consumer is buying it for the controls. They see somebody play tennis by swinging and then they absolutely have to touch it. It's contagious. 4 friends of mine bought Wiis after coming to my Wii Sports parties in November and December 2006.   The TGS Wii Remote unveiling sold the Wii to me too, but as you pointed out yourself, it was all about games. The controls are pretty worthless without the software that supports them. Sure the controls do play their part, since the software has to designed the specific controls in mind, but eventually it all comes down to games. People don't buy the Wii because it has fun new controls, they buy the Wii because it has fun new games that they can play.

 

 Yeah you're right.  I guess I'm just wording it differently.  I think the new controls are the initial draw, and then the great original games with new controls are what keep 'em coming back and get the word of mouth spreading like crazy.

Theres a lot of bad economics here. A lot of people are taking what little information they have and making absurd judgements.

It is a falacy to use your feelings for a company to judge how successful they will be at a particular endeavor.

All of the consoles are expanding their markets, and for every good game that comes out for a system the market apeal increases. This year we will probably see lower prices of some consoles, a wider variety of games available on said consoles. Why are people talking about doom and gloom so early in this generations' lifecycle?

Lastly, as the sales for all three systems have increased year over year then one must expect that they haven't platuaed yet.

Squilliam said: Theres a lot of bad economics here. A lot of people are taking what little information they have and making absurd judgements. It is a falacy to use your feelings for a company to judge how successful they will be at a particular endeavor. All of the consoles are expanding their markets, and for every good game that comes out for a system the market apeal increases. This year we will probably see lower prices of some consoles, a wider variety of games available on said consoles. Why are people talking about doom and gloom so early in this generations' lifecycle? Lastly, as the sales for all three systems have increased year over year then one must expect that they haven't platuaed yet.

Nintendo has gone on record and stated no price cuts this year.

Sony is projecting only 10 million PS3's shipped this FY meaning they are trying to reduce losses, not gain market share.  So again, no price cuts.

 

MS is the most likely to cut prices since they are finally profiting on hardware.

Oyvoyvoyv said: Okay, time to put some facts. yaadaa yaadaa (EDITED TO SAVE SPACE0 WW: 560K/week. Or 2426K/month. The above estimation includes holiday seasons, but has perhaps not taken it into big enough account. Real number might be closer to 2600K/month.

Your figures, statistical methods and math were all superb; and regrettably all in vain. You are missing one huge point but what is going to happen will make no sense without it. 

GTA IV didn’t move ANY hardware or at least so little that no one can seem to find the peak. In fact, PS360 LOST ground during the GTA IV launch period. The game sold phenomenally well but its coattails couldn’t carry any consoles.

THIS IS HUGE! It’s a major disaster for both companies and while the fans understandably don’t want to dwell on it, you can bet that MS and Sony executives noticed and are in full crisis mode. Hence, you get ludicrous statements like “When somebody’s well on their way to reaching 100 million units [that would be the time],” Shane Kim, corporate vice president of Microsoft Game Studios.” That’s MS, always taking the bold leaps.

The trade press has noticed it, game developers have noticed it. If GTA IV can’t sell consoles then put a fork in them they’re done. 

Nintendo, on the other hand, rose in percentage over top of GTA IV and Wii Fit will greatly accelerate the growth of that gap.

 Any estimates made before the GTA console debacle just are no longer meaningful.   

 

The Wii also has an economic advantage over the other 2. At this point in the U.S., the economy is getting horrible. Recession is getting worse. Gas may cost $7.00 NEXT YEAR! (this was an AMAZING shocker for me.) People are losing money and jobs.

The Wii's cheap price will make it a complete shoo in to make great sales off of people with low dough. At this point in time, in U.S. at least, you can't just waltz in top Wal Mart, Circuit City, or BestBuy and get a High Def tv or a Ps3 or 360.

Not saying the Wii will totally kill like the Ps2, the Ps360 will do pricedrops too and great lineups to match, so I am not doubting any of the rival defenses of the Wii. But, in the hard times of our American recession, the Wii takes the crown without much sweat or thought.

50%, imo, is the minimum. Max, at the end of the year, could be 50.5-50-9%.