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Forums - Sales - Interesting Gamestop data that contradicts NPD April

TWRoO on 22 May 2008
Ail said:

In a recent interview with investors ( find more data here on Gamasutra ) Gamestop executives claim that GTA4 did double hardware sales week to week.

That's not exactly what NPD April seemed to hint and in this case we have to believe Gamestop as they have their real sold numbers.

Makes you really wonder about those NPD April numbers...

 


 key phrase.

The NPD numbers seem to point to terrible sales for the first 3 weeks and then a decent rise for the last week, even if that rise barely brought it above average March weeks.



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PooperScooper on 22 May 2008
FishyJoe said:
PooperScooper said:
FishyJoe said:

Actually, the Gamestop statement is very much inline with the NPD weekly numbers.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=26962


your basing 360/ps3 numbers off of ps2/ds numbers.... wow.... just wow...


It's better than hot air, which is all you've contributed.


Read your thread silly boy. I was busy proving you wrong.



Sqrl on 22 May 2008
Ail said:
Sqrl said:

Why did you use the last three months and not just use April? We don't really need to know about their typical hardware sales, just about the period regarding GTA IV. I have no idea if that helps or hurts the number but April is definitely the more relavent piece of information.

Also you really shouldn't round numbers mid-calculation, the hardware revenue is closer to $250.9 million and would be a 17.3% share. I know it seems like a small difference but the details can be important and it really only takes an extra second to calculate properly.

Finally, please link your sources for NPD and GS data.


I coudn't do it for April only as Gamestop did not release specific financial information for that month. They released information for the financial quarter ending May 3rd.

Gamestop financial information can be found here.

For the total number of US stores you have to do a little research ( they have 5400 now worldwide, they passed 1k over sea like 4 months ago and they have been opening a lot more shops oversea in the quarter so 4k is probably very close to the reality).

For total US Hardware sale for the same period I added data from NPD Feb, March, April. ( search gamasutra site for NPD and you can find that data).

The only way that Gamestop marketshare data could be lower would be if NPD hardware revenue for those 3 months was underestimated which would just be another way for me to drive my point :P


Fair enough on the april point.

 

But that sort of raises the next point which is that without a direct comparison for the exact period this is very much so broad guesswork. Gamestop could see 19% and 19.5% share for Feb and March respectively but maybe 14% for April. There are quite a few possible combinations and one of them happens to be perfectly in line with the NPD data.

So ultimately your point rest apun the assumption that the rate of sales was even throughout these periods while simultaneously pointing to an article that claims doubled sales for a given week. 

You've made a fair obvservation but I really don't think we have the numbers needed to vett it fully.  And even then I would point out it still is only a small portion of the market and could easily be counteracted if other stores like Walmart had a slow April. 

 
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Ail on 22 May 2008
Sqrl said:
Ail said:
Sqrl said:
Ail said:
Zucas said:
Gamestop hardware sales equal less than 10% of the entire market. Hell it's probalby less than 5%. The big sellers are Wal-Mart, Target, and Best Buy. I doubt there numbers really affect anything. They could sell out of all the shipments they got when GTA IV released and still it would give a significant overall increase.

I mean I love the enthusiasm and we all are surprised at GTA IV's minimal effects but this is just sad.

NPD doesn't cover Wallmart so...

Total US hardware sales for February-March-April are 1.45 billion $.

Total new hardware sales for Gamestop for the same period are 339 million$.

Gamestop operates 5400 stores around 4000 of which are located in the US.

So roughly 75% of their hardware revenue come from the US that is 254 million$.

That would give them a 17.5% marketshare for the new console business, quite significant and a lot more than 5% some guestimated...

 

 

 


Why did you use the last three months and not just use April? We don't really need to know about their typical hardware sales, just about the period regarding GTA IV. I have no idea if that helps or hurts the number but April is definitely the more relavent piece of information.

Also you really shouldn't round numbers mid-calculation, the hardware revenue is closer to $250.9 million and would be a 17.3% share. I know it seems like a small difference but the details can be important and it really only takes an extra second to calculate properly.

Finally, please link your sources for NPD and GS data.


I coudn't do it for April only as Gamestop did not release specific financial information for that month. They released information for the financial quarter ending May 3rd.

Gamestop financial information can be found here.

For the total number of US stores you have to do a little research ( they have 5400 now worldwide, they passed 1k over sea like 4 months ago and they have been opening a lot more shops oversea in the quarter so 4k is probably very close to the reality).

For total US Hardware sale for the same period I added data from NPD Feb, March, April. ( search gamasutra site for NPD and you can find that data).

The only way that Gamestop marketshare data could be lower would be if NPD hardware revenue for those 3 months was underestimated which would just be another way for me to drive my point :P


Fair enough on the april point.

 

But that sort of raises the next point which is that without a direct comparison for the exact period this is very much so broad guesswork.  Gamestop could see 19% and 19.5% share for Feb and March respectively but maybe 14% for April.  There are quite a few possible combinations and one of them happens to be perfectly in line with the NPD data.

 


I can agree with that.

I was just answering to all the posts claiming that Gamespot was a minor player in the gaming market with at best 5% marketshare and that they were not representative of the market at all...

Clearly the data ( not wild speculation) shows that they are actually one of the big players...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Sqrl on 22 May 2008
Ail said:

I can agree with that.

I was just answering to all the posts claiming that Gamespot was a minor player in the gaming market with at best 5% marketshare and that they were not representative of the market at all...

Clearly the data ( not wild speculation) shows that they are actually one of the big players...


I have no problems with that conclusion at all, when it comes to hardware they are a major player, they aren't quite top dog but they aren't insignificant by a long shot.
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Zucas on 22 May 2008

Gosh I don't even know why we are arguing this. There has been no logical thought process in this analysis whatsoever.

Yes it's possible that sales could have doubled but that could fit NPD numbers.

Arguing that Gamestop has huge market share compared to other retailers is silly. This is represented simply by how few consoles they get in compared to the bigger retail chains.



Ail on 22 May 2008
Zucas said:
Gosh I don't even know why we are arguing this. There has been no logical thought process in this analysis whatsoever.

Yes it's possible that sales could have doubled but that could fit NPD numbers.

Arguing that Gamestop has huge market share compared to other retailers is silly. This is represented simply by how few consoles they get in compared to the bigger retail chains.

Financial data show they are around 17% of the market.

What's your data to contradict this ?

 



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Zucas on 22 May 2008

Common sense.



Sqrl on 22 May 2008
Ail said:
Zucas said:
Gosh I don't even know why we are arguing this. There has been no logical thought process in this analysis whatsoever.

Yes it's possible that sales could have doubled but that could fit NPD numbers.

Arguing that Gamestop has huge market share compared to other retailers is silly. This is represented simply by how few consoles they get in compared to the bigger retail chains.

Financial data show they are around 17% of the market during the last 3 months.

What's your data to contradict this ?

 


FYP, further analysis needed for your claim to be valid. 
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Sqrl on 22 May 2008
Zucas said:
Common sense.

 Common sense told people the Wii would be third this generation.  If you have an argument then post it otherwise you're really not adding anything to the thread.

I know you probably don't like GS and I don't either but that doesn't mean we can just ignore it because we want to. 
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