@dib8rman

"what if Sony disrupted nintendo."

With what? The PS3 is already out. It isn't going to have some massive rebuild that could disrupt the Wii. The PS3 is already on the old path. The only way Sony could disrupt the Wii is with a PS4.

Notice how microsoft seems to be really quite recently; in order to change your business model in the case of what they are doing you need to convince your investors, execs, developers and user base that this is how something can be done, it takes time to reshuffle your business structure. I wouldn't be suprised if microsoft is doing some R&D work to release their "silver bullet." what ever it is.

All I said was that was disrupter speak; how am I supposed to know with what, I haven't been following Sonys' reps enough to have a hint at what they are working on, all I know about them at the moment is Kill Zone 2.

Cheer up, pal.

up to 2009 for wii looks ok: 70 million units sold by then. After that, the prediction gets a bit fruzzy.

 No to me it sounds like "Shit, we're losing. How can we spin this?" talk.

I don't know really. Maybe I'm afraid Wii will hit a invisible barrier at about 75 million as the market goes more towards HD consoles, leaving Wii with lower sales stopping at 80-90 million as an endnumber. Maybe much less. I'l be happy if that does not happens and maybe I'm afraid of nothing real. 100+ million would be nice.

Although, I think the most important thing is a fast selling console up to 50 million as it would have a nice impact on what games comes to Wii and the weakly gamesales.

The iiW stops selling in 2009 because an emulator for PS3 that can run Wii games hit the streets. So, buying a PS3 will enable you to play Wii games. Then, there is no point in buying a Wii.

This graph doesn't look weird at first... But then, if you add the actual data for 2005-2007, it does look stupid.

It's a pretty pointless argument as to whether the introduction of new (less expensive) models count as a price reduction; the fact is that the 60GB PS3 launched at $600 and was the main SKU (because Sony didn't produce many 20GB models), and now the 40GB PS3 is $400 and the main SKU which is a fairly massive price reduction if you want to 'Buy a PS3' ...

How do I know Nintendo third party support will explode? Because it makes business sense and we have already seen the begining of it. A larger userbase both means higher theoritical sales as well as a lower probability that your game will have unexpected low sales simply because there are more people to buy your games; at the same time the lower development costs and shorter development cycle of Wii games makes games far more profitable at the same sales level, and greatly reduces the risk of development. So far what we have seen from (most) third party publishers are 'quick and dirty' efforts that were started after they saw how successful the Wii is, and soon enough we should see the efforts of developers who have put more time and effort into their games.

Now my argument may (or may not) be exagerated, but I think it is foolish of anyone to predict sales of the PS3 at 20 Million units per year in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 after how it has performed so far. I can accept an argument that (like the Genesis) the PS3/XBox 360 will be able to prevent seeing lower sales later in their life (like the N64, Saturn, Gamecube and XBox faced) because they're 'in a different market' but CNET's prediction is foolish ...

It actually looks like that with the complete data.