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HappySqurriel on 22 May 2008
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SpartanFX said:
HappySqurriel said:
narfwack said:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13772_3-9948454-52.html

 

They still believe the earlier prediction by Billy Pidgeon and even add a new chart.

 


The reason why this bothers me more than anything else is that they assume the PS3 will suddenly start selling like the Wii has been in 2009 ... The PS3 to date has seen massive price reductions, the release of the biggest game of the generation, and the victory of Blu-Ray and is still selling at less than half the rate they expect it to in 2009 and 2010. Where is the justification?

In 2009 the PS3 will still probably be $300 or more, Blu-Ray will be far from a well adopted format, Wii third party support will be exploding, and we may be in the middle of the largest worldwide ecconomic downturn in over half a century; why is the PS3 going to take off in this climate?


everything you said here is not true.

 

PS3 had only one price cut not "massice price ReductionS"(and that casue the weekly average to go up 2-3 times) .None of the big hitters have yet arrived(fist one is the MGS4).I am not saying these will casue the PS3 to explide but I m just pointing that your argument is not right(exagerated)

 

your argument is biased ,,,how do you know nintendo third party will explode?i m not saying it won't but we won't know that for now.


It's a pretty pointless argument as to whether the introduction of new (less expensive) models count as a price reduction; the fact is that the 60GB PS3 launched at $600 and was the main SKU (because Sony didn't produce many 20GB models), and now the 40GB PS3 is $400 and the main SKU which is a fairly massive price reduction if you want to 'Buy a PS3' ...

How do I know Nintendo third party support will explode? Because it makes business sense and we have already seen the begining of it. A larger userbase both means higher theoritical sales as well as a lower probability that your game will have unexpected low sales simply because there are more people to buy your games; at the same time the lower development costs and shorter development cycle of Wii games makes games far more profitable at the same sales level, and greatly reduces the risk of development. So far what we have seen from (most) third party publishers are 'quick and dirty' efforts that were started after they saw how successful the Wii is, and soon enough we should see the efforts of developers who have put more time and effort into their games.

Now my argument may (or may not) be exagerated, but I think it is foolish of anyone to predict sales of the PS3 at 20 Million units per year in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 after how it has performed so far. I can accept an argument that (like the Genesis) the PS3/XBox 360 will be able to prevent seeing lower sales later in their life (like the N64, Saturn, Gamecube and XBox faced) because they're 'in a different market' but CNET's prediction is foolish ...