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Forums - Sales - How many consoles will be sold in December 2007?

Quantum-Tarantino said:

@Blue3 - Right now the Wii production is 1.5m a month, so yes, theyll ship more than a million in december 07

These are supposed to be US numbers.

Looking at the current wordwide distribution (and assuming the US represents 90% of the american market), for every million they sell in the US they'd have to ship something like 2.75 million worldwide. It's not impossible, but I don't think the Wii will ship much more than twice their monthly production in Dec/Nov (simply cause that would meen stockpiling more than a third of current production, and use all that for the holidays, not for a single game launch).

If those 1.5 million/month are correct, this would put the ceiling at around 2.2 million for the US in Nov+Dec. I'm sorry, but unless production is significantly upped from those 1.5 million/month, TheSource's prediction is clearly exagerated. I'm not saying that it won't happen, just that 1.5 million/month is not enough.



Reality has a Nintendo bias.
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Quantum-Tarantino said:
So the wii wont break a million in the US, but the PS3 will hit 2?


ohh help me god.

 How can they sale more then they can make ?

 are they gonna starve Japan and Europe to sale in USA ?

Can they produce 2 millin a month, are they stocking wiis for xmas ? will they starve the market for a few months to build up stock for december ? 

 

  



Right NOW, they are producing 1.5 a month (IIRC)
By DECEMBER, theyll up that again, to possibly as much as 2.5
in BETWEEN now and then, if they stockpile as few as 100k a month theyll add 600k to their production for that month.

As i stated before, the Wii will sell 6m durnig the "holiday season", which begins on black friday, in the USA

Edit - Not to mention, there is a VERY good chance, that they change the Pack in Game for the Xmas Season, making it Mario Galaxy, SSB, or Pokemon

 



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Blue3 said:
Quantum-Tarantino said:
So the wii wont break a million in the US, but the PS3 will hit 2?


ohh help me god.

How can they sale more then they can make ?

are they gonna starve Japan and Europe to sale in USA ?

Can they produce 2 millin a month, are they stocking wiis for xmas ? will they starve the market for a few months to build up stock for december ?

 

 

they can't.

no.

YES!!! Congratulations! You finally understand! Haven't you noticed that despite the production of 1.5 million per month, Nintendo are only shipping around 1 million consoles per month? Where do you think the rest went? They're stockpiling for december!  



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

Nintendo clearly stockpiled for Golden Week. So it should come as no suprise that they would stockpile for December too.



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Quantum-Tarantino said:

Right NOW, they are producing 1.5 a month (IIRC)
By DECEMBER, theyll up that again, to possibly as much as 2.5
in BETWEEN now and then, if they stockpile as few as 100k a month theyll add 600k to their production for that month.

I think Nintendo has pretty much shown us they won't up production that rashly for a (couple of) month(s). Either they do it in a sustained way, cause they believe there's sustained demand for that, or they won't.

Quantum-Tarantino said:

As i stated before, the Wii will sell 6m durnig the "holiday season", which begins on black friday, in the USA

The DS, which was selling twice as good as the Wii is now, sold 6 million units worldwide the last holidays. Its possible, but its the ceiling. And it still means only 2.2 million for Nov+Dec in the US.

Quantum-Tarantino said:

Edit - Not to mention, there is a VERY good chance, that they change the Pack in Game for the Xmas Season, making it Mario Galaxy, SSB, or Pokemon

Where did you hear that? Seriously, I'd like to know.



Reality has a Nintendo bias.

Could be an absurd amount. No doubt all time record.

Without looking at other posts, these figures are possible:

1.5m Xb360
800,000 PS3
2m Wii
1m PSP
2m DS
1m GBA
1m PS2

9.3 million..



DS 3.5
Wii 1.5-? ( Depends entirely in production, if they are actually getting more manufacturers, then the sky is the limit)
360 1.5 ( Price drop + GTA4-HALO3)
PS3 500K-1M ( Depends in price drop, software is far from being as strong as the other consoles, 2008 will be far better though)
PSP 1M



Obviously Nintendo will keep increasing Wii production. They've had a hard time increasing production, supposedly because they have had a series of smaller bottlenecks, not one giant bottleneck like with PS3's Blu-Ray Diodes. But they will increase production, and stockpile as much as they can for Xmas. I think they'll come up short of 2 million for December, though.

DS is obviously on pace to do over 2.5 million in December (probably over 3 million), and it will be the champ overall.

360, depending on a price cut, will do between 1.1-1.6 million. With the way they're crushing PS3, I don't know if a price cut is even on their radar anymore, and at $400, and no killer app for November or December, they'll only sell about 1.1 million in December.

PS3 is selling 82K a month now, and a $100 price cut is worthless. 800K at best.

PSP I think will manage 1 million units. PS2 can do 1 million again as well.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

They are already able to make 1.5 million a month so if they are stockpiling say 200 thousand units a month then by Christmas time they could have as many as 2.5-3 million for that month alone. They are bound to increase production again by then so 2 million a month might not be out of the question. which would mean that even more would come for Christmas.

Wii 3 million
360 1.5 million
PS3 700 thousand
DS 6.5 million
PSP 1 million

PS3 is the toughest to predict because everybody I know that wants one says they are waiting for more games and a price drop. Well by christmas they will certainly have the games, price drop is iffy though.