I know there is a common theory that games drive hardware sales in this industry. Generally, I think that is true, but come December, I think a large number of people who were undecided about purchases earlier in the year, decide to make the plunge, rendering recent content into a factor, not the factor in console sales.
With that said, we don't really need to know exactly what is coming out that will drive/sustain sales in December 2007.
Here are USA Hardware sales (NPD) from 2000-2006 in December so that we can have some idea...note that I did not include N64, DC, PS1 numbers for December 2000-December 2002.
| PS2 | Xbox | GC | Xbox 360 | Wii | PS3 | Total | |
| Dec-00 | 522,239 | 522,239 | |||||
| Dec 01' | 1,971,318 | 699,597 | 573,499 | 3,244,414 | |||
| Dec-02 | 2,733,000 | 1,033,000 | 619,000 | 4,385,000 | |||
| Dec-03 | 1,970,000 | 1,122,000 | 1,163,000 | 4,255,000 | |||
| Dec-04 | 989,000 | 1,044,000 | 814,000 | 2,847,000 | |||
| Dec-05 | 1,500,000 | 415,000 | 606,423 | 281,441 | 2,802,864 | ||
| Dec-06 | 1,400,000 | 5,000 | 70,000 | 1,100,000 | 604,200 | 490,700 | 3,669,900 |
Looking back, it seems that 2002 was the first time there were three competitive consoles in the market. Going back further in time, 1997 was a huge year for the PS1 vs N64 USA showdown, and 1992 was the huge year for the SNES vs Genesis showdown. The cycle seems to run on a 5 year clock, as most of the big games come out by the 2nd x-mas of the last console's entry onto the market. After the uber-sales year, a near, but always slightly lesser peak comes - 1993, 1998, 2003, and likely 2008.
Historically, a console with a one year lead-time has the biggest sales during it's 3rd December, which bodes well for Xbox 360. The rule isn't perfect - Genesis came out in 1989 though - two years, not one, before the SNES, which is why 1992, and not 1991 or 1993 was the big year. Throwing in PS1 in 2002, I imagine December sales were close to 5 million in December for consoles, which would mean that is what I expect as a minimum for the holiday this year.
This year is interesting in that consoles have both more great content, and more expensive pricing than ever before. To a large extent, I think this will actually end up supporting decent to good PS2 sales into 2008, which is great news to publishers who need a large base for their games to sell. In terms of content, 360 benefits next by having the most new content. Wii follows closely behind as consumers see the cheaper price and realize that is has had 12 months less time to get games. PS3 then comes out as the elitist console due to price, graphics, and the types of games offered. With 4 consoles likely getting strong sales, I think nearly 6 million consoles can be sold in the USA in December 2007. Although 2002 had four consoles that were supported, PS2 essentially mopped the floor with Xbox, GC, and PS1 in terms of sales and content. 1997 saw strong PS1 and N64 sales, but the only other viable system was the SNES, which was on it's last legs - a position I expect PS2 to be in 2008. This year I think will see the most even support ever for 4 platforms in the USA market, which should help make this a banner year for the industry.
With all that said, here is my prediction for December 2007, with December 2006 included as reference..
| Dec-06 | 1,400,000 | 5,000 | 70,000 | 1,100,000 | 604,200 | 490,700 | 3,669,900 |
| Dec-07 | 900,000 | 0 | 5,000 | 2,000,000 | 1,700,000 | 1,200,000 | 5,805,000 |
PS2 Xbox GC Xbox 360 Wii PS3
In essence, despite the potential for far greater sales based on the content to come (see the 20 games you must buy for console x, y and z threads), I think sales will be limited by console pricing, which will make 2008 overall - an even bigger year than 2007, once 360 and/or PS3 drop in price, although the December sales will be less than in 2007.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
