Astrodust said: Let's get this straight. No one will have a 10 year lifecycle before the next cycle is introduced. The reason is that by year 6 or 7 Microsoft will introduce a new Xbox which will force Sony's and Nintendo's hand. So I expect by 2013 will will see the next generation.

 

I think they cant afford to make a new console unless they want to waste money.

 

RolStoppable said: yushire said: RolStoppable said: EDIT: I forgot to mention, that Malstrom didn't say in his blog that the Wii will last 10+ years before Nintendo introduces a new system. Therefore the topic title is based on a wrong assumption of the thread starter. Do you know that the PS2 was almost 8 years since its launch right? And it still selling right? The PS2 launched in 2000 if you forgot. What does this have to do with the Wii having a 10 year lifecycle before a successor is introduced? Apparently you are missunderstanding what Malstrom has written. Which btw, is only a single sentence about an article he has yet to post on his blog. All he says is that the Wii will have a longer lifespan than the PS2 and that's it. He mentions nothing about a date when the next Nintendo console will be launched.

 

The article goes on to why there will never be a Wii 2 that sentence alone is as clear as day, even Sean Malstrom says there'll be no Wii 2, so there'll be no new console will introduced maybe in 7 years. I did say introduced not launched.

 

yushire said: Cheebee said: Dunno, guess not. But I can see it having a 7-8 year life cycle. And I'm pretty sure the next machine from Nintendo will be fully compatible with the Wii and and allow users to make a seamless transfer from the older machine to the new.   You are into something here, but for backward compatability to succeed, you still must use the current technology to make the games backward compatible. Just like the Wii was a gimped gamecube the reason why it can also play gc cds without emulation.

The heart of Wii is a less than 1Ghz PowerPC CPU, while XBox 360 already had in 2005 a 3,2GHz tri-core PowerPC CPU.  GPUs capable of HD without struggling are still quite expensive, but will be cheap in less than three years.

So already in four years Nintendo could get, say, a 3GHz or more quad-core PowerPC with more than 12 times the processing power of Wii's CPU at bargain prices: having enough power for HD and keeping BC shouldn't be difficult.

FightingGameGuy said: You're absolutely wrong and Patcher, who predicts the obvious is almost certainly right. There will be a Wii 2, an HD Wii, when HD reaches high enough market penetration that the market demands it and that its no longer bleeding or even cutting edge technology. The first reason is common sense for business. The second fits with Nintendo's technology philosophy, not to use technology when its bleeding edge, but to use it only once its cost effective. The gameboy and Nintendo's decision not to use Color is a perfect example of that philosophy in action. But in time color became effective and Nintendo made the Gameboy color. Finally, Nintendo actually makes money on consoles it sells (unlike MS or Sony) so it clearly has at least some financial incentive, assuming a similar business model, to introduce a new console. Hence,its incredibly reasonable to assume that once HD (1080P, etc) becomes prevalent enough and cheap enough, Nintendo will follow suit with an HD console. Your reasons are also quite fallacious. Nothing to improve upon? The wii's graphics (on an HD TV, 10-15% of the TVs I believe) are not the quality of those that PS360 are capable of generating. The wii also does not use the newest generation of media (blueray/HDDVD) so when these become practical Nintendo will almost certainly use them in its next console (one case where Nintendo's use old tech failed miserably was with the N64, its only a matter of time before DVDs are effectively as outdated as catridges were then). Secondly, your ipod model won't work for video games. Games cannot simultaneous push for the best graphics one console is capable of and be backwards compatible with older consoles. P.S. If you're going to discuss an article please include a link to the article.

 PS3 and 360 both still look better (technically) than the Wii on an SDTV.

Also Japan has the highest HD adoption rate of the 3 major regions, and also happens to be where the Wii has a lifetime total hardware more than double the combined efforts of the HD consoles

Alby_da_Wolf said: yushire said: Cheebee said: Dunno, guess not. But I can see it having a 7-8 year life cycle. And I'm pretty sure the next machine from Nintendo will be fully compatible with the Wii and and allow users to make a seamless transfer from the older machine to the new.   You are into something here, but for backward compatability to succeed, you still must use the current technology to make the games backward compatible. Just like the Wii was a gimped gamecube the reason why it can also play gc cds without emulation.   The heart of Wii is a less than 1Ghz PowerPC CPU, while XBox 360 already had in 2005 a 3,2GHz tri-core PowerPC CPU. GPUs capable of HD without struggling are still quite expensive, but will be cheap in less than three years. So already in four years Nintendo could get, say, a 3GHz or more quad-core PowerPC with more than 12 times the processing power of Wii's CPU at bargain prices: having enough power for HD and keeping BC shouldn't be difficult.

 

But is the problem why gamers choose the Wii more is because gamers cant afford a HDTV yet? It'll ruin Ninty's vision on playing games then. Wii made because its the current gen console that can support SDTVs.

 

He is basing his(Sean Malstrom) articles according to current events though, and when his predictions are correct, he will post his analysis in his blog just to save face. He is a credible analyst, but the same time he is too safe in his analysis Im still waiting the third article in his disruption articles series. It will be long time before we've seen all of his articles.

We never know, maybe Sean Malstrom will change the title of his article after Ninty introduced a new system in 2010, but while he is at it we'll discuss his current analysis on the Wii. And thats Ninty introducing a new system longer than expected.

@yushire: Sean Malstrom is not saying that Nintendo won't come out with a new console, I am pretty sure he was talking about Nintendo's next console will not just be a HD Wii. Rather, they will try to come up with something as revolutionary as the Wii, since it's almost certain that other console manufacturer will attempt to copy the Wii at some point.

 

Edit: Unless the competitors come up with an equally disruptive product, I suppose. 

takkxyz said: @yushire: Sean Malstrom is not saying that Nintendo won't come out with a new console, I am pretty sure he was talking about Nintendo's next console will not just be a HD Wii. Rather, they will try to come up with something as revolutionary as the Wii, since it's almost certain that other console manufacturer will attempt to copy the Wii at some point.   Edit: Unless the competitors come up with an equally disruptive product, I suppose.

 So what revolutionary thing Ninty will made after few years that counter the Wii? Unless Ninty will made a new VR console thingy, that thing is impossible even 20 years from now. VR was still expensive thats why its a flop

 

Not so sure about 10 years - the market can change pretty quickly, and if MS do manage to release a "Wiimote rip-off", then who knows what can happen.

But there are plenty of "variants" of the Wii hardware that could be released - giving Ninty ample chance to release "new models of the Wii 1" before the end of the platform.

And people KEEP FORGETTING - like with the PS2, a 10 year lifespan for the Wii - does NOT mean the Wii II can't be released 7-8 years into the Wii cycle. Hell, the GBA is *still* around, and sold a good number of units last year - and people are talking about the next **DS** already.

...

The Wii is heading into Xmas 3 - we have had ZERO price cuts, ZERO colours, ZERO hardware variations (etc). It will still be going strong in 2010, then new models released - and by 2012 we may see the Wii II, with the Wii still having 2-3 years on the market. That is basically a 10 year lifespan.

It makes perfect sense that the dominant console ends up staying on the market for much, much longer than normal - even after 'better' consoles have been released.

I'll go out on a limb (not a huge one really):

There is NO chance that the Wii II will be released in 2010.

Heck that's ONLY 70 weeks away, and the Wii is STILL selling out. We might see the next DS around then. Maybe...