What kind of gamers are out there? Segment the market.
There are 3 different kinds of gamers.
1. Hardcore/Pro Gamer They like MGS4, Forza 2, Zelda 1st party and exclusive stuff.
2. Casual gamer: They like FIFA, Medal of Honor, Tony Hawk. They play complex games, they don't really know there are better games.
3. Non Gamer: They don't play much, if they play Buzz, Singstar, Wii Sports Mario Party.
How big is the last generation?
Dreamcast 9.13 mln
PS2 117.89 mln
Xbox 24.76 mln
Gamecube 21.59 mln
Wii 5.84 mln
Total 179,21
Keep in mind that this generation still expands. This has nothing to do with Wii not being next gen.
I just base my generations on hardware. This will also explain how long a generation lasts.
How big is each segment?
This is really hard to say, I'll just give it a shot.
My percentages are based on last generation, since it's old enough to segment.
1. Hardcore/Pro gamer it's a small group of gamers. They represent 5-10% of the market.
2. Casual gamer it's a big group of gamers, games ain't a huge part of there lives. 50-60% of the market.
3. Non gamer This group will be very populair in the next generation. It's 30-35%. Wii will make this much bigger.
So segment 3 will grow the fastest, because segment 1 and some of segment 2 are already joining next generation (360 PS3).
How big will this generation be?
We need to know how much PS2 and Wii sells for the next couple of years.
PS2 20 mln Wii 80mln. It might be more so let's say: 280-300mln.
I think last generation is extraordinary long, because of the Wii-mote. This will make the next generation shorter.
It will only extend if something revolutionary is introduced. Last generation '99-'13 14 years.
Who will be the winner of last generation. I think ps2 wins this generation. PS2 140mln vs Wii 80-100-120mln
What does this mean? The gamesindustry isn't mature. Gaming isn't fully accepted.
Who penetrates which segment of the market?
360 only aims for gamer 1 & 2
PS3 aims for 1,2 & 3 (focus on 1&2)
Wii aims for 1,2 & 3 (focus on 3) Last Generation.
Who will win this war?
Nintendo won't be first in last generation. However it will out sell 2 next generation consoles.
Only 2 players on the nextgen market. 360 is focussing on 2 segments. PS3 is focussing on 3 segments.
The funny thing is they are pulling of games for all 3 segments. But PS3's price is at segment 1.
Don't underestimate the PS3 yet. This console is future proof. Actually it has Zero games. There coming Q3 2007.
EDIT
What should happen to the industry?
Gamers have different goals. They want to play a particular kind of game.
What system should they choose to get more games that they want to play.
Technical Advancedments
Choose a PS3: Microsoft is a very strong player in this market. Sony is just the bigger player.
The battle will be close. But Sony will win, because they are not forgetting segment 3.
Eventually it will force Microsoft to come up with a successor of the 360 at first. Sony will follow.
Longerlife
Choose a PS3: PS3 is future proof it will have a longer life. When do you want a longlife?
Longerlife become handy when you don't want to buy a new expensive console.
And at the same time keep on playing on your current console.
Just want Fun
Choose a Wii: This means party games, simple, easy and fun games. Multiplayer games not online.
Intergation with PC
Choose 360: If you want to play against PC gamers, 1 account for your console mobile & PC gaming.
Gamers have to choose: do they want to play Western games or Eastern games?
Western 360
Eastern PS3
What I mean is what games should dominate the industry? Eatern or Western? The winner of a generation will always have a good balance.
