i remember that before final fantasy 7 come out only nerds played RPGs but final fantasy 7 had a wide appeal because of is quality and hi production values, my point is since metal gear 4 has this same elements, hi production values and quality and great reviews, do you guy think it will appeal outside of its niche? if that is the case, could the game have great legs?

Well, I screwed up the individual numbers big time (and Europe still surprises me a little), but I was pretty close with the final totals.

How did everyone else do?

Looking back on my Japan prediction of 100k... I got owned.

My HW prediction was correct in TOTAL..not in regions though

my HW was off for japan by A LOT...n I over-estimated EU..

but oevrall my HW predcitions were beaten/

Metal Gear Solid 4
Japan: 200,000 to 300,000 (actual: 480,000)
North America: 500,000 to 750,000 (actual: 500,000)
Others: 500,000 to 750,000  (actual: 430,000)
Total: 1.2 Million to 1.8 Million (actual: 1,410,000)

Outside of Japan the software sold to the lower end of my expectations, but overall performed how I expected it to.

PS3
Japan: 40,000 to 60,000 20,000 to 40,000 (Actual 81,000)
North America: 130,000 to 170,000 60,000 to 100,000 (Actual 122,500)
Others 130,000 to 170,000 80,000 to 120,000 (Actual 116,500)
Total: 300,000 to 400,000 160,000 to 260,000 (Actual 320,000)

In Nother America and The Other regions my initial projections were way too high, and my revised predictions were too low in North America.

Overall, I am pretty pleased by my estimates although I admit I underestimated Metal Gear in Japan and did not anticipate how much additional demand would be created by the 80GB bundle.