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Forums - Sales - How the hardware sale of First 4 months of 2008 has changed your estimates.

I think PS3 can reach above 15 million only if they can have a price cut in Japan and Europe before the end of June... Because i still think that 400 is a little too much for the console for most of the consumers... and in Europe & Australia like places it is even more than 400 after the conversion...



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justforeggs posted:

 Sorry, I was going to flame you for something you said, but I misunderstood

 

 

For me, Sony is doing much better with both of their systems than I expected.  The only reason I can see (opinion) is that it's mostly due to MH2G for PSP and a lack of aggressive pricing on MS' part.

One thing to remember about PSP sales, though, is that DS is soon getting Dragon Quest IX, which will at the very least give MH a run for its' money.  Now, everyone and their mother already has a DS in Japan (it has sold to about 1/3 of the population) so it may be a non-factor, but I doubt it.

 

My prediction:

Wii: 30-32 million sold, increasing that to 36 million if they up production again later in the year.

360: 9 million if there is no significant price drop, 11-12 million if there is one

PS3: 10-13 million because of all the great games, possibly more if there's another price drop.

DS: I'm going higher than the trend here and saying 40 million, as Dragon Quest will move systems on a monster Hunter scale.

PSP: 15 million.  This one's just a gut feeling.

 

Ahhhh, JL, where are you? *stares out the window* 



Could I trouble you for some maple syrup to go with the plate of roffles you just served up?

Tag, courtesy of fkusumot: "Why do most of the PS3 fanboys have avatars that looks totally pissed?"
"Ok, girl's trapped in the elevator, and the power's off.  I swear, if a zombie comes around the next corner..."

Wish I had noticed this sooner, feel free to add this to the OP:



To Each Man, Responsibility

@The Source

Numbers are the best way to provide a proper framework for analysis, and these numbers don't lie about what's happening on the ground.  PS3 is enjoying the BEST surge of all consoles, but 360 and Wii are enjoying some nice gains as well.  It's important to note since it's key to rmember that the goal isn't to brag about how many consoles you sell, but about how profitable your console is!  Alot of fanboys love to rave about fanboy issues, but in REALITY, these are business units, not fanboy bragging clips! 



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder

heruamon said:

@The Source

Numbers are the best way to provide a proper framework for analysis, and these numbers don't lie about what's happening on the ground. PS3 is enjoying the BEST surge of all consoles, but 360 and Wii are enjoying some nice gains as well. It's important to note since it's key to rmember that the goal isn't to brag about how many consoles you sell, but about how profitable your console is! Alot of fanboys love to rave about fanboy issues, but in REALITY, these are business units, not fanboy bragging clips!


 I don't disagree with your basic premise but what are you basing the bolded part on?

 The graph I posted above is the last 4 months which shows the Wii increasing and the PS3/360 staying roughly the same.



To Each Man, Responsibility
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TheSource said:

Just doing year over year for January-April 2007 vs. January-April 2008 * 2007 sales shows this for 2008:

 

World2007 TotYoY TrendProjection
DS29,075,1310.979615328,482,444
Wii16,290,9831.494666624,349,589
PSP11,172,0031.531446417,109,324
PS37,556,7331.673436612,645,714
Xbox 3608,107,5801.427710211,575,274
PS29,119,2480.98042518,940,740
    
Americas2007 TotYoY TrendProjection
DS9,929,4691.166691111,584,623
Wii7,390,5111.46520610,828,621
PSP4,034,5971.47789645,962,716
PS32,777,7451.92536835,348,182
Xbox 3605,291,6871.26389666,688,145
PS24,227,9260.96801114,092,679
    
Others2007 TotYoY TrendProjection
DS11,834,0441.362438216,123,154
Wii5,219,2332.269187711,843,419
PSP4,029,3901.30309685,250,685
PS33,560,3761.8513316,591,435
Xbox 3602,557,9691.79827714,599,937
PS24,081,1701.10709114,518,227
    
Japan2007 TotYoY TrendProjection
DS7,311,6180.48803173,568,301
Wii3,681,2390.95971383,532,936
PSP3,108,0161.83301925,697,053
PS31,218,6120.92089851,122,218
Xbox 360257,9240.6284772162,099
PS2810,1520.6382504517,080

 

So without any considerations of games, price cuts, etc, YoY would give you this (Americas, Others, Japan):

 2008 Proj2008 Proj2008 Proj
DS11,584,62316,123,1543,568,301
Wii10,828,62111,843,4193,532,936
PSP5,962,7165,250,6855,697,053
PS35,348,1826,591,4351,122,218
Xbox 3606,688,1454,599,937162,099
PS24,092,6794,518,227517,080

But when I apply factors like games, when there were price cuts last year, etc, and scale the raw projection results accordingly I get this:

 

 2008 FP2008 FP2008 FP
DS9,846,92912,898,5233,835,924
Wii11,911,48311,843,4194,062,876
PSP5,962,7164,988,1515,697,053
PS34,011,1375,602,719953,885
Xbox 3605,350,5163,104,958121,575
PS22,762,5582,643,163517,080

 

 

I'm not really sure I understand how from PS3 sales = 360 sales in NA for the first 4 months you project 360 will sell 1.3 million consoles more there in the full year..

Care to explain ?

 



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Last year if you would have told me the 360 would be outsold by the PS3 i'd have lauphed at you , but yeah this year my expectations are pretty much in line with the average poster.

PS3 12.5-13.5
XBOX 360 9.5-10.5



Ps3 to get 15-16mill
360 to get 9-10mil
Wii to get something CRAZZY



now we could have 20million ps3s for 31december2008,common its not impossible look at the wii???,



Sqrl said:
heruamon said:

@The Source

Numbers are the best way to provide a proper framework for analysis, and these numbers don't lie about what's happening on the ground. PS3 is enjoying the BEST surge of all consoles, but 360 and Wii are enjoying some nice gains as well. It's important to note since it's key to rmember that the goal isn't to brag about how many consoles you sell, but about how profitable your console is! Alot of fanboys love to rave about fanboy issues, but in REALITY, these are business units, not fanboy bragging clips!


 I don't disagree with your basic premise but what are you basing the bolded part on?

 The graph I posted above is the last 4 months which shows the Wii increasing and the PS3/360 staying roughly the same.


 

SURGE is the keyword.  Wii is ofcourse blazing the charts and making Nintendo shareholders VERY happy, but Sony shareholders are even happier, since it looked like the console was going to crash and burn.

"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder