Earliest would be E3 this year (Mid July) (or a week or two before, as some things seem to come out just prior now....) I actually expect them to put it out earlier than they would of normally liked, and say it's about 60% likely it will be this year.

@jlauro: Your wayy off, earlyest march next year no way this year, march next years even pushing it

I have heard they are moving to 40nM technology (is this correct or true) If so would this effect a move to a slimline PS3?

You are probably right.  I only put it at 60% by December, and would be way sooner than normal for a redesign.  March is only 3 months later, so although it's overly optimistic, I don't see how it's "way" off.

"march next years even pushing it"

i was saying thats the very earliest, so like 10% chance of that.

But if there gonna do it they should push it out just before holidays 09, i could see the setting sales of fire.

right now PS3 needs to start making their consoles cheaper and at the same time profitable for Sony b4 they make anything new models

yer i too was wondering this question. As I baught GTA4 on ps3 i would love to play it but here in Aus PS3 is like $700 (about 680US for 40gb model which is the only model sold). So a slim one at even $600US I WOULD GET. However I guess I will make the hard decision when MGS4 comes out.

Cause I'm thinking the big PS3 in aus is region free. So I can import US games. However the slim might take that feature out. Just like the 40gb has limited ps2 playback.

oooo it's coming. Don't wait on it, but it'll happen. Not soon, though. I'd say by the time they can price it $250.

That is why they might make a slim line smaller sooner than they otherwise would. If it's smaller, it will could cost less to make, less to ship, etc... It might be the best way to make it cheaper and more profitable. If they keep the same design, how in the world are they going to make it cheaper?

This is no way saying that I think it is likely to happen anytime soon.  Just that I wouldn't be surprised if Sony switched desgins sooner rather than later iff they could shrink the components and produce them at a lower cost.  That is a big iff...