http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10332&Itemid=2

Kaz Hirai skips damage control and says the PS3 had an underwhelming first year.  He also says PS3 is getting better support now and expects it to have AT LEAST a ten year lifespan.  The rest of the article is very good too.  :)

That doesn't mean the PS4 won't come out before 2016. I'm sure it will have a 10 year life span, in as much that the NES had a 10 year life span in NA and longer in Japan. They'll keep "supporting" it well after the successor is released but if anybody seriously thinks the PS3 is going to be competing for exclusives or getting decent multiplatforms from the Xbox or Wii's successors in 2015 they are either joking or crazy.

Less than eight years after the PS2 was released in NA and the software support is drying up. The big AAA exclusives go to newer consoles and any ports the PS2 receives are usually gimped due to technical limitations of the console. And that's talking about the most successful console in video game history. The PS3 will have nowhere near the same support from third parties and its' library will dry up much quicker.

The PS4 will be released in 2011 or 2012, 2013 at the latest.

I guarantee the Wii will have a longer "lifespan" than the PS3, whether it means sales and/or support and/or anything else. The market leader always lasts well into the next generation. This happened with the NES, SNES, PS1, and PS2. However, it is not going to happen with the PS3. It will be immediately replaced like the GameCube and XBox and Saturn and everybody else.

Actually, I believe it could be a possibility. Nintendo themselves have stated that making improvements to graphics adds little to the enjoyment of games. Chances are, the PS4 will not differ from the PS3 other than its higher processing power. What benefit would Sony have to release a more powerful console in 5 years (or rather, what benefit would gamers have buying the PS4 in years). A longer lifespan for consoles this generation is likely. This applies not just to the PS3.

azrm2k

you really think that in just 3 years the ps4 will be out?

come on the ps2 hasnt even died yet and probly wont till next year.....

the ps3 was shown 2 years nefore it was relssed so acording too you next year we will be shown a ps4........come on go back under a rock pleasse.......

 Well I don't know about exclusives drying up. Just last year it got God of War II and Persona 3. This year there's Naruto Ultimate Ninja 3, Persona 3 FES, Persona 4, and more. I mean I kind of see exclusives drying up, but there's still tons of multiplatformers coming. Every PSP game released, including the new Ratchet, GoW, etc are all potential PS2 releases as well.

 The PS3 should have an even better lifetime mostly because we've finally reached a point where graphics are good enough. With a fully capable system that has a high storage media, I don't see why people will ditch the PS3 for another gen anytime soon.

The PS3 is too expensive to develop for as it is when it's on the way up. It'll get ditched way faster than the PS2, since it'll have higher dev costs and a smaller userbase on the way down towards the end of this generation.

MS will lose this gen and try to beat everyone to the market again as from their point of view the 360 was a great success. It will have actually made profit for over half of its life and it will have caused MS to gain in market share. Thus, they will introduce the next gen probably around 2010/11.

This will force Sony/Nintendo to also put out new systems within at least 1yr of the neXtBox. So, I expect 2012 to be when all three have new systems.

360 will have a quick death of

This is the same as Iwata saying there will be no price drops for the Wii and DS in the foreseeable future. It's the smart thing to say, it makes it sound like buying now is a good idea. Who pays hundreds of dollars for a console if a price drop is on the horizon or if the console you are looking to buy is living on "borrowed time", it's just not a good investment.

Nintendo and Sony can always go back on their statements later and say things like "due to currency fluctuations" or "due to unforeseeable market conditions" we had to ...........

Initially development costs are higher because there are significant differences with past technology.

But costs will become less and less as once game engines and middleware are redesigned, they are already adapted and there are less costs involved with follow-up games. Concept art or target art and audio is often done in very good quality and then reduced to suit the console's capabilities. So with mature game engines this downgrade if needed at all would be less significant.

The benefit of designing more efficiently with the PS3 architecture in mind is that this results into performance benefits on other hardware like multi-core PCs as well, this means lower specced PCs can run the game and thus more people can run your software. The best sold PC games are the less demanding titles, so development costs will earn themselves back in course of time.