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Forums - Sales Discussion - Dec. Predict Results & Jan Predict thread!

Hopefully we can pick up some steam on getting new people to join the fun. I have created a program that allows me to quickly chart the winners of the prediction game. Before I post results, let me explain the formula I use in the spreadsheet, so we can all agree (or disagree) on if it's right or not. I take the VGcharts.org numbers (not the NPD), and put them as "actuals" against everyone else's predictions. I then add or subtract the actuals from the predictions to represent a positive number. I then make this into a precentage against the NPD numbers. IE, the DS Lite/DS actuals were 1,772,000, I thought they would be 1,700,000 units. I was 72,000 off, or 4% off. What I do then, is take each number and then average out the % that everyone is off by. If someone does not have all the numbers, I have brackets around their names, as it can certainly throw off the entire prediction thread - PLEASE, when you predict, predict everything. Now, what if you are over the number by more than 2x? (which nearly everyone was on the Xbox, and some were dreadfully close on the Wii). I then just give it a factor of 100% off, as opposed to 400%, ect. That way no one's score is totally killed. December Hardware Winners (brackets indicate they did not make full predictions) Avg. % Off Per Prediction: Diomedes (13.96%) - No GC, Xbox and PS2 Predictions Mrstickball - 18.61% Stormprophet - 24.40% Bulla - 29.52% Pescatore85 - 30.11% zsidane - 31.59% NolSinkler - 33.76% Zucas - 37.66% thibje - (55.66%) - No GBA Predictions Hopefully everyone is semi-pleased with the numbers, as this is a MUCH better system that just giving the #s of systems someone is off by. For software, only about 5 people have predictions. I can get them done if you want me to, but I figured we didn't give everyone the same base for s/w predicts as h/w, as I added them later. Jan Predictions: Wii X360 PS3 DS PSP PS2 GBA GC XBox S/W Predictions: Lost Planet (360) Guitar Hero (PS2) Gears of War (360) Call of Duty 3 (360) Other games? I don't have a whole lot of software, please add more, as I don't know the software coming out that's big for every system. Also, if someone could: Provide maybe a list of games for Febuary that we should predict. My Predicts: Wii - 500,000 PS3 - 275,000 X360 - 350,000 DSL - 500,000 PSP - 350,000 GBA - 250,000 XBox - 3,000 GC - 40,000 PS2 - 400,000 Give me some S/W sugguestions for the rest of January. Also, feel free to edit your posts concerning predictions - expecially in regards to software, but note it as so... Also, no editing within 3 days of the NPD Postings/VGChart actuals. Just post a new thread. That way no one is getting "inside info"....Kinda like those 1.5m 360 units sold and 1.3m wii units sold in Dec. that everyone was claiming was true.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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Wii - 450,000 X360 - 350,000 PS3 - 300,000 DS - 230,000 PSP - 130,000 PS2 - 400,000 GBA - 300,000 GC - 0 XBox - 0 These are both dis-continued machines. They should not be counted. :) As with sales under 50,000 it is VERY easy to be WAAY off, and they dont matter, because they have no market share in sales. Think about it. :)



PSN ID: Kwaad


I fly this flag in victory!

You've done a stonking job with this list, thank you very much, but we have finally finished our proper predictions league - you can find it at: http://www.vgcharts.org/predictions We are going to use pretty much exactly the same calculation system as you have used there, so good work!! mrstickball, how do you fancy helping us run and set up the predictions league every week (Japan) / Month (NA) ?



Those prediction are a month off you have December instead of January.



Thanks!! Has been fixed - oops



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I get the feeling I highballed about half of the games on the actual prediction page.



Lol, looking at other peoples I think mine are miles off as well !! Oh well, you never know. Can you enter twice?



Dang it, those software ones really got me. That's where I lost, I had no idea Guitar Hero would shoot thru the roof like that. Arrrghhh. Still, pretty good on most of my hardware guesses. Legend of Zelda Twilight Princess should still be on there I think.



Wii_gamer said: You've done a stonking job with this list, thank you very much, but we have finally finished our proper predictions league - you can find it at: http://www.vgcharts.org/predictions We are going to use pretty much exactly the same calculation system as you have used there, so good work!! mrstickball, how do you fancy helping us run and set up the predictions league every week (Japan) / Month (NA) ?
How would you want me to help you? Of course I'd help...Just let me know what you need.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Guys... Half of competitors now have something like 150, 300, 440 etc. etc. Please read carefully. Dont make a space after first 3 digits. 123456 for example, not 123 456. I suppose someone should fix it adding 000. Otherwise accuracy will be at 0%. Also i suggest that everyone should use only 1 acc.