It may not come close to gta4,but it will be the highest selling MGS up to date.

Less than GTAIV, MGS4 would sell good though

This is correct.

Why don't people just scale back their expectations a tad? MGS4 will almost certainly be a great game and even more certainly sell very well. Can't we just be happy with that? If you expect MGS4 to rival the very best selling games on the platform, you're just setting yourself up for disappointment. It doesn't conform to historical precedent in the slightest. 

But are you just pretending then that the 3rd installment didn't happen?  That's like saying Pong sold really well with a high attach rate on the Atari, but the sequels didn't, so the next Pong will sell awesome.

I realize that MGS4 is an advancement but you get my point.  You can't ignore that way fewer people played MGS3 and therefore you have to wonder about the health of theseries' fanbase.  The people that love it LOVE it, but will the masses buy this weird, albeit good-looking and quality game.

Just like how GT5:P HW boost won't come close to Easter's sales?
Just like how GTA4 will push more 360 than Ps3s?
Just like how GT5:P is a failure for Sony?

Do you see the trend in everything you say is the complete opposite?

MGS2 was the sequel to one of the best games ever. It was on a new console. MGS3 was a sequel to a bait-and-switch of hardly playing as Solid Snake in MGS2. It was still on PS2. It was in the 60's. It was released alongside other highly hyped games (Halo 2). MGS4 is more hyped, BUNDLED, the conclusion to the series (supposedly), in the future with all returning characters, has third-person and first-person shooting, a great online starter pack (MGO), and it's launching on new hardware. CoD4 has sold almost 9 million copies, over 3 million on PS3. The most it ever sold before was a little over 2 million. MGS4 is at least as hyped as CoD4. More people are getting into that haven't played MGS before (like I did with CoD4). GTA4 sales will be at best split 50/50 between PS3 and 360, so that 15-18 million will be split to, at best, about 7.5-9 million. MGS1 and MGS2 both sold about 6 million copies. I think the software totals are going to be closer than a lot of you are predicting, and I think MGS4 has a decent chance to outsell GTA. That said, I'm happy with both games doing well. I just hope I can beat GTA IV, Portable Ops, and Metal Gear 2 (not solid) before MGAS4 comes out.

Call of Duty 4 had tremendous legs and was kind of a surprise to sell that well. It wasn't hyped all that much and certainly not as much as MGS4. MGS4 will be big, not because of all the hype it got (even though it will help), but because it will be the first big 3rd party exclusive for PS3 and most likely the best looking game on the system. This will help the game because PS3 users have been waiting for a game that does justice to the PS3 for long enough. 

 However, I don't see this game getting the same numbers as it did with the first 2 games (nearly 6 millions each) and it will be nowhere as big as GTA4 no doubt about that. The only thing that could be bigger than GTA is new IP or a game that distances itself considerably from the previous installments to be called a new IP (such as CoD4). 

I could be wrong, but I believe that Metal Gear Solid is a series which has seen a large portion of its sales come from the "High Profile Game Effect" ... Essentially, this can be explained as "Whenever you have a popular system, high profile exclusive games released for that platform see a boost in sales because people who aren't (normally) interested in the game buy it because it is high profile on a system they own"

A good example of this effect would be Mario Party 8 which has outsold all previous Mario Party Games even though it is one of the worst Mario Party games, and it could be argued that its success is due to the Wii's popularity more than anything else.

If I'm correct, Metal Gear Solid 4 will only provide a moderate boost for the PS3 which is short lived because a lot of people who previously bought Metal Gear Solid games will not be willing to buy a system to play the game.

why do you ps3 haters keep bringing up the past? msg4 is a defferent beast, its going to seell ALOT of software and hardware in june. this is last mgs, EVERYBODY want to play this( bisides the ps3 haters) and this bundle WILL OUTSELL the wii the week of june 21st. do you know how many people want and are happy the 80gig is back? i bet 200 thousand or more for america and over seas in the first week. this is the game everybodys beens waiting for, it can easily sell 1 million in a week in america and obviously more in europe and the others. ALOT of wii and 360 fans are gonna eat major crow after the week of june 21st.................SOMEBODY QUOTE THIS POST..............get ready to be shocked

I hope it outsells GTA4, but doubt it will, although considering its being classed as the first ps3 exclusive you HAVE to have, it could push GTA far