Will MGS4 numbers be > or < than GTA4 for PS3?

[Godot]

windbane said:

fastyxx said:

Yakuzaice said:

fastyxx said:
OKay. So Metal Gear 3 sold 3.75 million units total on a platform install base of like like 75-85 million at the time?

And MGS4 is going to sell how many on an install base of 12 million?


Some of you are out of your freaking minds on your predictions.

MGS2 released on a platform with 16 million, and sold around 7 million (according to most other places).
With that said, there is no chance MGS4 will outsell GTA IV.

But are you just pretending then that the 3rd installment didn't happen? That's like saying Pong sold really well with a high attach rate on the Atari, but the sequels didn't, so the next Pong will sell awesome.

I realize that MGS4 is an advancement but you get my point. You can't ignore that way fewer people played MGS3 and therefore you have to wonder about the health of theseries' fanbase. The people that love it LOVE it, but will the masses buy this weird, albeit good-looking and quality game.

MGS2 was the sequel to one of the best games ever. It was on a new console. MGS3 was a sequel to a bait-and-switch of hardly playing as Solid Snake in MGS2. It was still on PS2. It was in the 60's. It was released alongside other highly hyped games (Halo 2). MGS4 is more hyped, BUNDLED, the conclusion to the series (supposedly), in the future with all returning characters, has third-person and first-person shooting, a great online starter pack (MGO), and it's launching on new hardware. CoD4 has sold almost 9 million copies, over 3 million on PS3. The most it ever sold before was a little over 2 million. MGS4 is at least as hyped as CoD4. More people are getting into that haven't played MGS before (like I did with CoD4). GTA4 sales will be at best split 50/50 between PS3 and 360, so that 15-18 million will be split to, at best, about 7.5-9 million. MGS1 and MGS2 both sold about 6 million copies. I think the software totals are going to be closer than a lot of you are predicting, and I think MGS4 has a decent chance to outsell GTA. That said, I'm happy with both games doing well. I just hope I can beat GTA IV, Portable Ops, and Metal Gear 2 (not solid) before MGAS4 comes out.

Call of Duty 4 had tremendous legs and was kind of a surprise to sell that well. It wasn't hyped all that much and certainly not as much as MGS4. MGS4 will be big, not because of all the hype it got (even though it will help), but because it will be the first big 3rd party exclusive for PS3 and most likely the best looking game on the system. This will help the game because PS3 users have been waiting for a game that does justice to the PS3 for long enough. 

 However, I don't see this game getting the same numbers as it did with the first 2 games (nearly 6 millions each) and it will be nowhere as big as GTA4 no doubt about that. The only thing that could be bigger than GTA is new IP or a game that distances itself considerably from the previous installments to be called a new IP (such as CoD4).