Without counting Japan the Xbox actually kicked the GameCube's ass with 25 versus 18 mill!! For an industry entry against a name like Nintendo, and with the PlayStation so strong, they actually didn't do bad at all. The 360 is doing better than the Xbox, and still without Japan. That's quite a handicap if you think about it. If the PS3 won't take off in Japan in the future, it might not out sell the 360 significantly during this generation.

But the main problem is that Japan is a big part of the gaming industry, that is why they hired Hironobu Sakaguchi to help increase sales in Japan, and he has done a good job for how terrible the market it is there.

ill hope so, your estimations seem to be ok.

First of all, there are a lot of assumptions here.

ie: 4 more years of sales. Personally I don't think it will last another 3 years.

also, There is Blue-Dragon 2? Is it even confirmed?

And most importantly, 1 million in Japan in lifetime is just bad, especially the amount of money Microsoft invested in securing studios and paying exclusivities. Personally, I think anything less than 5 million in lifetime in Japan is a total failure (same goes for PS3 as well)

But don't forget the 360's just past 18 millions ... it still has to sell 12 millions to reach the 30M!!! That's a long way to go when you don't have the japanese market and maybe not the european one in a short time!

And when you guys say that it's great that a "new" competitor can deal with sony and nintendo, do you forget who's behind this console??? Microsoft is not a beginner in the game industry. And don't forget that they nearly made no money with the first xbox, if it was another company that MS, they' never had been a 360 ...

They got the cash, that's all ...

But well, if you wanna believe it will top the 40 M, that's your problem, but you should bet on 30 first, that would be 5 M more , not too bad ;)

360 will not sell a million in Japan, sales are down to 1,000 a week now and it's best days are already behind it. It will decline this year and next and be completely dead in 2010. 4 years is an absolute impossibility, PS3 will pretty much be dead at that point.

Possible but not likely

 and PS3 an original Japanese protact , is not selling over 10000 units...

Considering the Xbox 1 never broke the 500K barrier. The 360 has improved its predecessor. The 360 had a horrible launch in Japan with Jap ports of western titles. Took over 2 years for propa Jap content like Blue Dragon and Lost odyssey

I highly doubt it will hit 1 mil by the end of its life cycle not at the rate its selling.