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Forums - Sales - Who will come outon top in next week (GTA IV's week) hardware's number?

rocketpig on 01 May 2008
Jandre002 said:
kowenicki said:
The_God_of_War said:
PooperScooper said:
kowenicki said:
The_God_of_War said:
Why the devil would the Xbox 360 win? PS3 will continue to beat it.

beat it? don't you mean continue to catch up slooowly?


Catch up? I thought he was talking about the 360 not the Ps3 outselling 360 by 850k already this year....


You're correct, PooperScooper. I wasn't talking about the fact that the PS3 has outsold the 360 this year by 850k despite a higher price tag, an "inferior" game library with none of it's "big" system sellers out yet.


Can you tell me, and I am not being sarcastic because I really do not know, which of these "big" system sellers actually move huge numbers in the US?? (aside from GTAIV as that is out now and is going to sell more on the 360 in the US) . Its just that its getting a little old........


MGS4 wont just be bought by Metal Gear fans. It will be bought by anyone who is impressed by its graphics and storyline. So this Metal Gear, with all its hype, will outsell all of the previous Metal Gears. You can't completely judge new releases by older ones. Like I said before, I expect that by the end of the year MORE copies of MGS4 will be sold than Gears 2. Next year Gears will pass MGS4, but end of the year totals will have MGS4 ahead of Gears 2.

MGS4 is the third biggest game of the year, and the second or third best seller on the PS3 in history.

Just think about this. For Gears 2 to really have an impact on hardware sales, it will need to outsell Halo 3. How many people do you think didn't buy Halo 3 or the original Gears, but will buy a console for Gears 2? The people awaiting Socom is probably larger than that list,if Gears 2 fails to perform in any way and Resistance 2 is better then those people might not even pick up the console.

By the time Gears 2 is released the PS3 will be winning in Europe, will have had a big boost in Japan and be selling 20-30,000 more than the Xbox360 there alone, and by the looks of it now will be outsold in America as well. Sony still has a price cut left if Microsoft drops price in NA. Its entirely possible by that time the PS3 would have outsold the 360 by over 2.5 million since the beginning of the year. Someone is going to call BS on this, but I called the PS3 passing the 360 in all regions which no one believed, but look at whats happening now.


Do you honestly believe that MGS4 will outsell MGS?

That would require the game to sell to an astronomical 75% of the PS3's userbase at release. Unpossible, I say! 




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darthdevidem01 on 01 May 2008

@Rocketpig

yes but as the userbase grows it is possible....MGS4 will continue to sel in the holidays & PS3 could well be onto 20 million by then

so not really 75%..more like 25%...



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

xenophon13 on 01 May 2008

it looks like day 1 says were 2.2m 360 at 2m PS3...you would think from those numbers that the PS3 would be benefiting the most from people buying consoles because of the user bas of the 360 and the numbers being about even software wise.



Stever89 on 01 May 2008
Sullla said:

To repost a previous reply on this same topic:

As usual, everyone overestimates the boost created by big releases. I've had to say it so many times, I should probably put this in my sig: "Hardware never spikes as much as you think for big games." With that said, 360 and PS3 hardware WILL be up noticeably for the week of Grand Theft Auto (which of course is next week's charts, not this current upcoming one). I expect both to see something in the area of 30% rise, with perhaps as high as 50% as the extreme upper limit. But some of these predictions - 300k? 400k?! - are just lunacy.

Fun fact: neither the PS3 nor 360 has ever topped 250k in weekly sales outside holidays/PS3 European launch. This is easily seen by looking at our weekly sales chart:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39047&end=39558

The 360's best was a 241k week for Halo release last year. The PS3's best was 228k last month on the week of 28 March, the debut of Gran Turismo Prologue in Europe. Clearly the release of large titles do increase hardware sales - they just create "bumps" on the graphs, not wild spikes upwards. And we'll see the same thing for Grand Theft Auto. There's a good chance that both the PS3 and 360 will top their previous non-holiday high marks that I mentioned above. But there's very little chance that they'll get anywhere close to 300k weekly sales (which would be an 80% increase for the PS3, and about a 110% increase for the 360!)

The Wii has sold 5.251m units so far this year, across 16 weeks; that's an average of 328k per week. So as long as the Wii sells around its weekly average (which it certainly should do!) there's practically no chance that it will be outsold by either the 360 or PS3. You can't guarantee anything in the market, but statistically the continuation of Wii hardware dominance is extremely likely.

It might also be a good idea to look at the hardware sales for 360's Halo release last year: http://vgchartz.com/weekly.php?date=39355&console=&maker=&boxartz=1 360 sales were up 40%, a nice amount. They didn't come even remotely close to the predictions of most fans, however.


This sounds sane enough. I'd also like to add some other little tidbits.

Grand Theft Auto 3

  • America Launch- Oct 23, 2001; Europe Launch: Oct 27, 2001
  • PS2 sales at the time- America: 4.8 million; Europe: 3.7 million
  • First Week Sales- Unknown for both
  • Total Sales- America: 6.55 million; Europe: 4.69 million
  • Hardware % increase week of launch- America: 17% increase; Europe: flat sales
  • Things to Note: Vice City came out 1 year after GTA3 did, so its likely it's opening week was relatively large (500k+ in each region)
  • Link (select cumulative sales to see hardware sales at that time)
Grand Theft Auto 3: Vice City
  • America Launch- Oct 28, 2002; Europe Launch: Nov 9, 2002
  • PS2 sales at the time- America: 12.7 million; Europe: 10 million
  • First Week Sales- Unknown for both
  • Total Sales- America: 8.2 million; Europe: 5.53 million
  • Hardware % increase week of launch- America: 27% increase; Europe: 11% increase
  • Things to Note: Holiday sales are kicking in, so its hard to determine what the increases are
  • Link (select cumulative sales to see hardware sales at that time)
Grand Theft Auto 3: San Andreas
  • America Launch- Oct 26, 2004; Europe Launch: Oct 29, 2004
  • PS2 sales at the time- America: 28.7 million; Europe: 25.2 million
  • First Week Sales- America: 2.2 million; Europe unknown
  • Total Sales- America: 8.45 million; Europe: 6.58 million
  • Hardware % increase week of launch- America: 4% increase; Europe: 176% increase
  • Things to Note: No idea what caused the massive increase in Europe, I feel like another game was released, but there seems to be no game that released in Europe (according to our database) during that time.
  • Link (select cumulative sales to see hardware sales at that time)

The only thing that I think differs from these and from now, is the amount of hype (which is evident from the massive first day sales that are being reported), so it's likely that it'll push hardware a bit more than these did. Also, I think the sales during the periods that these games were released were already artificially high since the holiday period is near. But to expect much more than a 50% increase for either console, which would put the PS3 at 300k WW and 360 at 250k WW I think is stretching it a bit. Not that I'm not expecting somewhere in the vicinity of a 50% increase for the two.

So here's my breakdown of hardware.


360
PS3
Wii
Japan
2k
15k
55k
America
125k110k
275k
Europe/Other115k
170k200k
Total
242k
295k
530k

 360 gets a bigger boost in America, but a smaller one in Europe, and PS3 is opposite. WiiFits second week keeps Wii strong in Europe, Golden Week gives it a slight boost (and a boost to the other consoles as well), and America is just whatever Nintendo ships, which I'm starting to think it might be more, upwards of 350k, but whenever I start thinking that, it never turns out, so I'm going conservative on it.



Red*Pokemon*Trainer on 01 May 2008

I think PS3 will beat the 360 and sustain above average sales in anticipation for MGS 4.



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DragonLord on 01 May 2008

PS3 --- 325,000
360 --- 250,000

Don't care about Wii...it'll sell whatever they supply.



PSN ID: Sorrow880

Gamertag: Sorrow80

Wii #: 8132 1076 3416 7450

celticlonewolf on 01 May 2008

Lot of people are basing there numbers of day 1 sales without seeing what the week 1 sales were. Will the numbers still be as close by the end of the week? Probably not. All I know is its going to be really hard for vgcharts to follow these numbers as close because of teh huge demand my hats of to you guys and good luck:)



Imthelegend on 01 May 2008

360 and PS3 will be around the 300k region. The Wii will be huge with MK WII selling in the US and recieving a huge boost and I'm predicting 500k for it. Remember golden week in Japan and with the US I'm sure it will do it.



 


 

Viper1 on 01 May 2008

Hard to say what the full week numbers will be. This might be the most front loaded game in history.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Stever89 on 02 May 2008
Viper1 said:
Hard to say what the full week numbers will be. This might be the most front loaded game in history.


Next thing you'll know, the NYTimes will come out and say that GTA4 bombed because it dropped 90% after its first month.

I don't think it'll be the most front loaded game in history though, since it's likely to sell 10 million across both platforms over the next 7 months, and the Final Fantasy games tend to be more front loaded, since they don't cater to the casual crowd as much as GTA does. See here. It's likely there are other games like that, but Final Fantasy comes to mind.