| TWRoO said: ^I think PS2 (actual production) peaked at 2.2 million per month, of course some quarters will look higher than that at time like Christmas etc as consoles are shifted from quarter to quarter. The Wii is being prepared for 2.4 million per month about 1 year earlier than PS2 was at 2.2. |
i hope the Wii beats the PS2 then
| lightbleeder said: I blame Wii Fit! No really, how much can it really sell at that price? North America's sales are always on par with shipments but when you think about it, US has a population of about 300 million, and Nintendo has already sold at least 10 million Wiis on the country (I assume the rest were sold in other countries of the Americas). Right now there are 30 persons for every Wii in US! But of course households aren't composed by just one person (at least that's not common at all), so let's assume now that per every Wii sold there's at least 3 persons that have access to it (I think it's a bigger number than just 3). Doing simple math we come to the conclusion that at lest 1 of every 10 households on the US has a Wii! That's a 10% of the population that has access to it! So can the Wii sale a lot more than 10 million in the US?? sure it can, there are at least 45 million PS2s in the US and that means that at least 1 of every 2.3 househols in the US have access to a PS2 (almost 50% of US population). But the PS2 has done that through 7 years, several price cuts and a redesign! So the Wii will keep selling out in the US for a while? My theory is that the Wii will hit a wall when it reaches 20 million units sold in the US, wich will happen in a year if not less if the production rate is raised to 2.4million units per month (this Christmas will be huge, Wii Fit will sell forever and there will be other good health concious games for the system soon). At 20 million units sold in the US the Wii will have reached 20% of its population, and the console will just go down in sales not because people will stop wanting it, just because 250$ will be a little too much for them. Nintedo will be still shipping 2.4 million Wiis worldwide so they will have to make a price cut for the console, not just in the US but all over the world (if they only lower the price in the US europeans would be really ripped off), my theory is that the price cut will be of just 30$ because it will be an experiment that Nintendo makes just to see how the market moves, doing the cut with a big game release would be the most logical move, and then the Wii will start to sell out in the US for months until christmas 2009! I know there must be something wrong with my theory, but please tell me what you think! |
That's all pretty valid reasoning, IMO. Of course we can't know what exactly are the price points, so your 20 million is just a guess. I wrote about this a few months back, and I also believe that the HD consoles have a much bigger hurdle to cross with regards to the price.
I've done some "analysis" on what constitutes a buying decision, and there are a number of factors that come into play. I won't post the diagram I made here since it's a bit complicated to comprehend, but the main points affecting the purchase decision are as follows:
| Factor | Effect |
| Price | Inverse |
| Perceived value | Linear |
| Sales channel | Gate |
| Value match | Gate |
What all that means is that, basically, you have to have access to the product and it must match your personal values for there to even be a chance of a purchase decision. After that, you must have the money to spend, and you must be willing to spend it, so obviously the higher the price, the less people have the needed amount of money and are willing to spend it, thus the inverse effect. Lastly, the perceived value has what I dubbed a linear effect, meaning that the higher the perceived value, the more likely you are to make a purchase decision. The relation is likely to not be linear but some sort of power or exponential function, but for sake of clarity and brevity I chose to call it linear :)
In my opinion, those four are the fundamental driving forces, and all other things companies do are done to affect those four.
| Nintendo Zealot said: I can't believe it is taking them until July to up their production. The last time they increased production was August which is almost year later. That is kind of pathetic it took them so long. |
This is the *second* time they increased their production since August. In August, they ramped up to 1.8 million. Recently, they upped it to 2.1 million, and in July they expect to hit 2.4 million.
No one else has ever had to do this. Do you think Sony could have just increased production of the PS2 to 2.4 million if it was as popular as the Wii? Maybe, but they never did.
cool for them but for sony and MS
Prepare yourselves, the end is near.
Current-gen game collection uploaded on the profile, full of win and good games; also most of my PC games. Lucasfilm Games/LucasArts 1982-2008 (Requiescat In Pace).
| Final-Fan said: FINALLY!  THEY PRESSED IT! |
The pic! It's back!
That was a good thread.
There is no such thing as a console war. This is the first step to game design.
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