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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predictions - When Will PS3 overtake 360 WW?

Final-Fan on 13 May 2008

I keep wanting to say Q3 2009, but Q4 is a much safer guess. So Q4 2009 it is, until E3 and Sony's report illuminate our groping in the dark.

*grope* (screams)



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

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Squilliam on 13 May 2008
SWA_JM_Obi-Wan said:
Squilliam said:
I would say predictions become more accurate after these events.

A. New Jasper models come out
B. Sony financials - to determine if they CAN drop the price
C. The beginning to Q3 and the after effects of MGS4
D. E3.

I would say sometime later next year q4-2009 but if A is good for Microsoft push that date back, if B is not good for Sony push that date back if C is good for Sony bring it forward and if D is Good for sony/Good for Microsoft bring it forward or push it back.

And if the Xbox manages to outsell the PS3 for a few months you can start thinking about cancelling it.

 

I would say B, C, and D are all sound reasoning. I am not sure if A will have any impact at this point. Honestly it's all about the software, and price points from here on out.

If the chip costs $20 less and the Motherboard costs $5 less and Microsoft expects $10 less needed to pay for future repairs then thats a $35 decrease in cost for instance. Could easily do a price drop or a feature increase. So it is important. Microsoft is being beaten by brand and hardware specifications, if they can't fix one then they can fix the other.

You have rumors of - Xmote, Blu Ray, Larger HDD, Wireless, Price drops all at the same time. I think its significant.



Tease.

w3stfa11 on 13 May 2008

Q2 2009 if there's a PS3 price drop in the fall.



Hi there.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Video_Game_Sales - A wiki for video game sales figures

yushire on 13 May 2008

For me, NEVER. As long as the Wii is still around. The sales in this site proves it.



end of core gaming days prediction:

 

E3 2006-The beginning of the end. Wii introduced

 

E3 2008- Armageddon. Wii motion plus introduced. Wii Music. Reggie says Animal crossing was a core game. Massive disappointment. many Wii core gamers selling their Wii.

 

E3 2010- Tape runs out

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/march2009/ICG_Tape_runs_out.jpg

Rock_on_2008 on 13 May 2008

I wish more moderators could of made a prediction on this thread. So far we have only had ssj12 who predicted in the same time period as me.
Q4 2008 PS3 will overtake the 360 in worldwide total console sales during December 2008.



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pimpcoop on 13 May 2008

Lets hope this never happens, but I am looking at end of the year maybe like December or early January 09



Zkuq on 18 May 2008

GT5 determines it all. If it is released soon eough before the end of Q2 2009 then Q2 2009 is most likely. If it is released Summer 2009 then Mid-2009 is most likely. If it is released Q3 2009 then PS3 will have passed X360 already.

Price cut is another thing to determine it. Q2 is very possible if Sony cuts the price this year. Unfortunately it's very difficult to say whether they'll do it or not. It's possible but I'm sure they won't cut it without great need and there is no need in sight at the moment.

Q4 2008 is possible if they cut the price by $100 in Q3 2008. Q1 2009 is possible if they cut the price by $100 before Christmas.

Mid-2009 would be my answer. Q2 2009 is another option but I don't think they can do anything to boost the sales enough.

Anyway, Q4 2009 at the latest is when the PS3 passes the X360 but it would require MS to do something spectacular. 



Squilliam on 18 May 2008
Squilliam said:
I would say predictions become more accurate after these events.

A. New Jasper models come out
B. Sony financials - to determine if they CAN drop the price
C. The beginning to Q3 and the after effects of MGS4
D. E3.

I would say sometime later next year q4-2009 but if A is good for Microsoft push that date back, if B is not good for Sony push that date back if C is good for Sony bring it forward and if D is Good for sony/Good for Microsoft bring it forward or push it back.

And if the Xbox manages to outsell the PS3 for a few months you can start thinking about cancelling it.

I push it back to mid 2010. And if A or C or D change anything I'll push it back even further.

A. New jasper model - Looks like we can expect it August 2008, they are already producing the chips. We will have to wait and see, but I would expect them to do something around that time. Either boost features, drop the price or both. 

B. Sony has poor financials, they won't be dropping the price this year in any case.

C. Hasn't happened yet, but poor GTAIV console sales make me wonder...

Its cute that I quote myself and all, it makes me feel like im being replied to.



Tease.

eliasg on 20 May 2008

if Microsoft cut the price again in Europe and after that in America, with SONY have problems dropping the price. I believe that the 360 will overtake the PS3 again...



 XBOX360

Official member of the Xbox 360 Squad

frybread on 20 May 2008

Never.

PS3 is retreating upmarket, focusing on short-term profitability.   It will always have the price disadvantage.

360 is focusing on the mainstream, looking for the next "Twister", rumors of a new controller, and learning a lesson from Wii Fit. 

Just focusing on current numbers, PS3 would take over in 2011.  But I believe business strategy is a better predictor of success, so the company who is best at copying Nintendo will secure 2nd place.  That company is Microsoft.



PC + Wii owners unite.  Our last-gen dying platforms have access to nearly every 90+ rated game this gen.  Building a PC that visually outperforms PS360 is cheap and easy.    Oct 7th 2010 predictions (made Dec 17th '08)
PC: 10^9
Wii: 10^8