Q3-4 2009, perhaps?

sometime in 2009

Can I wait until the beginning of July before answering? I'd like to know how the first major exclusive is actually going to affect the sales.

I'll say Q4 2009 only if sony able to get all its big exclusive release before that date in NA and Europe.

Q4 2009

Q1 2009 and Q2 09 at the latest

Q1 2010 Just after the Holiday slowdown.

Hey folks, I am new here (just registered), but I have been following the site and the discussions for some time now. Honestly I really don’t have a dog in this race, but I do admit I do prefer the PS3, not so much to brand loyalty, but to game franchise loyalty. I think this is the one area where many of you get off track when prognosticating this race/

In it’s first 14 months Sony was able to sell 10.5 million Consoles with nothing but smoke and mirrors. So far this year they have pulled themselves together with DMC (a solid title), GT5 Prologue (a glorified Demo), and GTA4 (a huge game but Multiplatform). MGS4 will certainly give the PS3 a boost in every region. It won’t be GTA big, but none the less it will get a boost for probably 3 or 4 weeks.

This wiill lead us into July and august where everyone generally lulls a bit. Odds are however Sony will get a slight boost out of E3 due to the fact they just have more big name titles to show that are on the horizon/

September will bring Socom, which is a game I think many people are seriously underestimating. The Socom community is very large, and rabid about their franchise, and I know for a fact that there are a ton of them waiting for the new game to come out to get a PS3.

The rest of the year as you know has a number of big titles and early “09 is looking strong as well. I have no doubt that Sony’s rate of sale will improve through the rest of this year and into next. When you look at the other two systems they have fired virtually all there big guns already.

To sustain Console sales over the long haul you need to constantly be releasing big franchise names over the course of a generation, Sony knows this. We know you will get more than one Socom this Gen, thers will be more than one R and C, more than one god of War, more than one GTA. I could go on and on and on.

So the question isn’t if Sony can raise it’s rate of sales over time, it will. The Question in all of this is do the other 2 consoles have the Franchise horses to to sustain their rate of sale over time. Also those who think that Sony will have a new Console out in 2012, I think that’s a real reach as I think 2013 the earliest you will see another console from Sony.

Just from reading so many posts over the past few months Many of you seem too mindful of current and past numbers and not nearly enough at looking at how Sony runs their console generations and two the many franchises that they have under their umbrella that are time proven to be loved by millions. I have said all this and havent even brought up the effects of price drops in the future. Bottom line is folks this race is far from over and it will be the best marathon runner tha will win it in the end, and not the best sprinter.

I would say predictions become more accurate after these events.

A. New Jasper models come out
B. Sony financials - to determine if they CAN drop the price
C. The beginning to Q3 and the after effects of MGS4
D. E3.

I would say sometime later next year q4-2009 but if A is good for Microsoft push that date back, if B is not good for Sony push that date back if C is good for Sony bring it forward and if D is Good for sony/Good for Microsoft bring it forward or push it back.

And if the Xbox manages to outsell the PS3 for a few months you can start thinking about cancelling it.