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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii, 200 million lifetime?

azrm2k on 25 April 2008
kingofwale said:
 

Refresh my memory here... when was the last Sony consolewith 5 years cycle of obsolenscence??? :P

 


 The original PS launched in NA in 09/1995 and the PS2 launched in 10/2000.  2000-1995 = 5 last time I checked.  However my math could be off.

And before somebody comes in with "But the PS was still supported till..."  The point of discussion was leo implying the successor would make the original obsolete and a "wasted purchase" and therefore the PS2 launching in 2000 fits. 



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kingofwale on 25 April 2008
The Ghost of RubangB said:
kingofwale, you can't look at all of video game history as just "Sony's history." That's 2 systems. No matter what statistic or trend you look at, the PS3 will not sell like the PS1 or PS2. No matter what statistic or trend you look at, the Wii will not sell like the GC. I mean... we're not even looking at history anymore. We're looking at the present. Every single week the picture is clearer. The Wii will outsell the PS2. Every market leader gets an extended run long past the beginning of the next generation. NES, SNES, PS1, PS2, GBA, Wii, etc.

 The question was directly targeted at Sony console, so I think my question was completely in the ballpark.

 

Your first few lines states that you shouldn't look at the past... while your last line states that you should?

What the heck are you trying to say here. Geez.



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)
_A_C_E_ on 25 April 2008
Viper1 said:
Novelty...there's that word again. Why does one assume the novelty of the Wii will fade but not for PS3?

Umm, where's the novelty in the PS3? At the rate PS3 is going now it can only gain. The Wii will eventually die down there's no question, but not for a few years. I really don't think the PS3 will get more sales if even half the sales of Wii this gen but I think they will reign the market for the next generation. Sony left their roots and fucked up, maybe they'll bounce back maybe they won't, it's all just guesses and alot of people think the novelty for the Wii will wear off, if you don't then explain why with a valid reason.



Viper1 on 25 April 2008

Saying the Wii is a novelty is like saying the N64 (and thereby the analog stick) was a novelty.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Nickelbackro on 25 April 2008

I would have to say my prediction is:
Wii 135 Million
Ps3 35million
Xbox 360 37million

For total industry sales of 207 Million this gen a 26% increase of last gen.
These figures sound reasonable to me.



Kickin' Those Games Old School.       -       201 Beaten Games And Counting

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_A_C_E_ on 25 April 2008
_A_C_E_ said:
Viper1 said:
Saying the Wii is a novelty is like saying the N64 (and thereby the analog stick) was a novelty.

Umm, where's the novelty in the PS3? At the rate PS3 is going now it can only gain. The Wii will eventually die down there's no question, but not for a few years. I really don't think the PS3 will get more sales if even half the sales of Wii this gen but I think they will reign the market for the next generation. Sony left their roots and fucked up, maybe they'll bounce back maybe they won't, it's all just guesses and alot of people think the novelty for the Wii will wear off, if you don't then explain why with a valid reason.


Was analog a novelty? I don't know. It certainly wasn't raved about like the Wii is so no that comparison is dead wrong. Why are you wrong? Well here, why is the Wii selling like hotcakes? Because of motion sensing? Bingo Bopp! Now why did the N64 have major sales? Oh that's right...it didn't. You make another comparison cuz that one sucks, no offense.



_A_C_E_ on 25 April 2008

My prediction:
Wii - 125 million
PS3 - 55 million
360 - 45 million



jlauro on 25 April 2008
bdbdbd said:
I was just wondering, that when the industry has changed, the new leading platform have accounted for, in number of units sold, a little more than what the size of the market previously was, and the market have experienced growth for the next generation. Dreamcast, PS2, Gamecube and Xbox adds up to around 180 million (with PS2 still selling), which would mean that Wii would be around 200 million when it has stopped selling, leaving 80 million to split between PS3 and 360. Then, a look for the next generation, Wiis successor would end up selling 220-230 million, leaving 70-80 million to split between competition. There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics. So, please, discuss.

One problem with the logic of adding Dreamcast, PS2, Gamecube, and Xbox and getting as estimated size of the market... is that many people have multiple systems. Just because they had multiple systems, doesn't mean they will have that many wii systems this gen... For example, I have 3 of those 4...  More likely I will get a PS3 and/or 360 later this gen, than to get a second wii...

That said, 200 million lifetime is not out of the question... besides for population growth, as people who used to play video games get older, they are more likely to contniue to play, bringing the average age of video gamers up. Also, the wii appeals to a much wide casual audiance than even the PS2 with games like bowling in wii sports. The real big possibility is the inclusion of Chinna. It will sell ok there at first, but in 5 years from now, after some major price cuts, and if their average income goes up, the possibilities of a greatly expanded market are huge.



Viper1 on 25 April 2008

@_A_C_E_

Haha, actually analog control was hyped a lot among the gaming community as can be seen by Sony and Sega copying it as fast as they could.

Did analog control die off and go back to d-pads? No. Motion control is doing just fine. It would only be novel if it had a singular use such as a peripheral typically does but this is standard with the console and given that it enhances gameplay, it doesn't have a chance of dying off because that would be like the analog stick going back to the d-pad.

My analogy works perfectly. The matter of sales is irrelevant. You simply cannot accept the Wii as a viable enough platform to sustain itself under the demand it is currently receiving.

Want another analogy? Touch screen. Yep, that died off, didn't it?



The rEVOLution is not being televised

_A_C_E_ on 25 April 2008
Viper1 said:

@_A_C_E_

Haha, actually analog control was hyped a lot among the gaming community as can be seen by Sony and Sega copying it as fast as they could.

Did analog control die off and go back to d-pads? No. Motion control is doing just fine. It would only be novel if it had a singular use such as a peripheral typically does but this is standard with the console and given that it enhances gameplay, it doesn't have a chance of dying off because that would be like the analog stick going back to the d-pad.

My analogy works perfectly. The matter of sales is irrelevant. You simply cannot accept the Wii as a viable enough platform to sustain itself under the demand it is currently receiving.

Want another analogy? Touch screen. Yep, that died off, didn't it?


Wow dude you might want to look back on my post for I said nothing but my opinion. The reason why people are buying the Wii is because of the motion controls. People do not buy consoles just because the controller has an analog stick or two, there's no novelty there, again your comparison is weak. I mean seriously I bought my PS3/360 for the games but why did I buy the Wii? For the motion controls. If you want to think that I'm taking a company's side on this then go ahead but judging by your post I can tell you think I hate Nintendo. And I do think Nintendo is viable enough  platform to sustain itself under the demand it is currently receiving, because it has the Wii-mote. The N64 brought the Analog to the industry first, who ended that generation with an ass-kicking? Yeah very thought out comparison you got there, but hey whatever.