| bdbdbd said: I was just wondering, that when the industry has changed, the new leading platform have accounted for, in number of units sold, a little more than what the size of the market previously was, and the market have experienced growth for the next generation. Dreamcast, PS2, Gamecube and Xbox adds up to around 180 million (with PS2 still selling), which would mean that Wii would be around 200 million when it has stopped selling, leaving 80 million to split between PS3 and 360. Then, a look for the next generation, Wiis successor would end up selling 220-230 million, leaving 70-80 million to split between competition. There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics. So, please, discuss. |
One problem with the logic of adding Dreamcast, PS2, Gamecube, and Xbox and getting as estimated size of the market... is that many people have multiple systems. Just because they had multiple systems, doesn't mean they will have that many wii systems this gen... For example, I have 3 of those 4... More likely I will get a PS3 and/or 360 later this gen, than to get a second wii...
That said, 200 million lifetime is not out of the question... besides for population growth, as people who used to play video games get older, they are more likely to contniue to play, bringing the average age of video gamers up. Also, the wii appeals to a much wide casual audiance than even the PS2 with games like bowling in wii sports. The real big possibility is the inclusion of Chinna. It will sell ok there at first, but in 5 years from now, after some major price cuts, and if their average income goes up, the possibilities of a greatly expanded market are huge.
