I understood that Jews had been immigrating to Palestine for decades before 1940 but didn't realize the full extent. The PLO and Hamas aren't justified in calling for Genocide. Genocide isn't justified by any past actions of a particular group of people, including Jews and Palestinians. 

This is Netanyahu's goal all along, Trump got duped into it.

A weak Iran would backfire on the United States

Supporters of the United States and Israeli military campaign against Iran argue that weakening Tehran by degrading its missile capabilities, crippling its navy and reducing its ability to project power through regional allies will make the Middle East safer. But this strategy rests on an assumption that a weaker Iran would produce a more stable region. In reality, destabilising one of the Middle East’s largest and most strategically important states could unleash forces far more dangerous than the status quo.

According to briefings provided to congressional staff in Washington, DC, there was no intelligence suggesting Iran was planning to attack the US. Yet military escalation continues in the belief that weakening Iran will ultimately serve US interests. If that assumption proves wrong, the consequences could be severe not only for the region but also for American strategic interests.


Fragmentation

The first danger is internal fragmentation. Iran’s population is ethnically diverse. While Persians form the majority, the country is also home to large Azeri, Kurdish, Arab and Baloch communities, among others. Several of these groups already have histories of political tension or insurgency, including Kurdish militant activity in the northwest and a long-running Baloch insurgency in the southeast.

A strong central state has largely kept these fault lines contained. But if Iran’s governing structures weaken significantly, those tensions could intensify. The result could resemble the fragmentation seen in other Middle Eastern states after external military pressure or regime collapse.

Recent history offers sobering examples. In Iraq, the dismantling of state institutions after the 2003 US invasion created the conditions for years of sectarian violence and ultimately the rise of ISIL (ISIS). Libya’s state collapse in 2011 left the country divided between rival governments and armed militias, a crisis that persists more than a decade later. Syria’s civil war produced one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes of the century while turning large swaths of territory into battlegrounds for militias and extremist groups. At the height of the conflict, ISIS was able to seize and govern territory across eastern Syria, declaring a so-called caliphate that controlled millions of people.

Iran’s collapse would produce an even more dangerous scenario. Its population is far larger than Iraq, Libya or Syria, and its territory borders multiple conflict-prone regions. The emergence of armed factions, ethnic militias or insurgent groups inside Iran could quickly transform the country into another arena of prolonged instability.


Regional instability

Such instability would not remain local. Iran sits at the heart of the Gulf, one of the world’s most strategically important energy corridors. Roughly a fifth of global oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz along Iran’s southern coastline. Armed factions, rival militias or uncontrolled naval forces operating along Iran’s coast could disrupt shipping lanes, attack tankers or try to block access to the strait, turning a regional crisis into a global energy shock. That would have consequences far beyond the Middle East. Higher energy prices would ripple through global economies, affecting everything from transportation costs to inflation. American policymakers often view energy instability as a regional problem, but in reality, it quickly becomes a global one.

The strategic consequences would extend further. Iran currently serves as a central node in a network of regional alliances and proxy groups that includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, various militia groups in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. These actors operate within a framework influenced, to varying degrees, by Tehran. If the Iranian state weakens dramatically, that structure could fragment. Some groups might operate independently, others might compete for influence, and still others could radicalise further without central coordination. The result would be a far more unpredictable security environment across the Middle East, which would make diplomatic engagement more difficult and military conflicts harder to contain.

Path to military dictatorship

Another risk lies in leadership uncertainty. Some policymakers assume that weakening the current Iranian leadership will produce a more moderate political order. But regime change rarely follows a predictable script.

Iran’s political system contains multiple competing factions, including conservative clerical networks, reformist politicians and powerful elements within the security establishment such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran’s leadership transition is less about a single successor than about the balance of power between clerical institutions, elected offices and the security apparatus. If the existing leadership were weakened or removed during wartime conditions, that balance could quickly unravel. The IRGC, which already commands vast military and economic resources, could try to consolidate authority, potentially pushing Iran towards a more overtly militarised political order. In such an environment, more radical actors, particularly those who view compromise with the US as impossible, could gain influence.

There is also little evidence that sustained military strikes will generate pro-American sentiment among the Iranian population. History suggests that external pressure often strengthens nationalist sentiment rather than weakening it. The 2003 invasion of Iraq, for example, did not produce pro-American attitudes but instead fuelled resentment and insurgency. Similarly, repeated Israeli military campaigns in Lebanon have tended to strengthen support for Hezbollah rather than weaken it.


Refugee crisis

Beyond the Middle East itself, instability in Iran could also trigger significant migration flows. Iran already hosts millions of refugees from neighbouring countries, particularly Afghanistan. If internal conflict were to erupt inside Iran, even a small share of Iran’s population of more than 90 million people seeking refuge abroad could produce migration flows far larger than those seen during recent Middle Eastern crises.

Many of those migrants would likely move towards Turkiye and eventually Europe, placing additional pressure on governments already grappling with migration crises. While this may appear distant from American shores, the political consequences for US allies in Europe would inevitably affect transatlantic relations and Western cohesion.

Taken together, these risks illustrate a broader strategic problem. Weakening Iran may appear attractive to the US from a narrow military perspective, but destabilising a large regional power rarely produces orderly outcomes.

The United States has confronted similar dynamics before. The collapse of state authority in Iraq after 2003 did not eliminate threats in the region; it produced new ones. Libya’s fragmentation after 2011 created an enduring security vacuum. Syria’s civil war turned into a multisided conflict that reshaped the politics of the entire region.

For Washington, the question should be whether the long-term consequences of destabilising Iran would ultimately make the region and the world more dangerous. If recent history offers any guidance, destabilising Iran may ultimately create the very threats Washington hopes to eliminate.

Note Iran is 2.5x the size of Afghanistan, where the US led coalition failed spectacularly with the Taliban back in control since 2021.

Since taking control, the Taliban has re-established the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, imposing a strict interpretation of Sharia law and rolling back many of the freedoms, particularly for women, that were established over the previous two decades.



It's all Netanyahu's end game, chaos in the ME, path to greater Israel by mass ethnic cleansing. Bomb their neighbors without resistance to get the people to flee and take over the land.

What is Trump's end game?

Cost to US for war on Iran is $3.7bn in first 100 hours, says think tank

The United States-Israeli war on Iran is estimated to have cost Washington $3.7bn so far in its first 100 hours alone, or nearly $900m a day, driven largely by the huge expenditure of munitions, according to new research.

An analysis by Washington-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) underlined the colossal cost of the war, which entered its seventh day on Friday, as the US attacks Iran with stealth bombers and advanced weapons systems.

Researchers Mark Cancian and Chris Park said only a small amount of the estimated $3.7bn cost of the war in the first 100 hours – or $891.4m each day – was already budgeted for, while most of the costs – $3.5bn – were not.

The human cost

More than 1,332 people have been killed so far in Iran since the US and Israeli bombardment began on Saturday, according to the Iranian Red Crescent, with UNICEF saying at least 181 children are believed to be among the dead.

In Lebanon, the death toll from Israeli attacks this week has risen to at least 123 people, the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health said, as a new wave of strikes pounded the country, in one of the fiercest fronts in the wider war.

At least six US servicemen have died in the conflict, while 11 people in Israel have also died. There have also been nine deaths so far in Gulf Arab countries.

CNN updates

Strikes in Iran: Explosions lit up the sky in Tehran after Israel said it had begun a “broad-scale wave of strikes” there. CNN saw thick black smoke in the capital, while state media reported that a busy shopping street was hit. Tehran residents tell CNN they experienced the “worst night” of airstrikes since the war began.

• Panic in Beirut: Fresh strikes also hit Beirut, hours after Israel said it targeted Hezbollah sites overnight in the Lebanese capital’s southern suburbs.

• Strait of Hormuz chokepoint: As the war disrupts global energy supplies, President Donald Trump said soaring gas prices in the US do not bother him. Meanwhile, two of the largest shipping companies are no longer accepting cargo bound for the Persian Gulf.

• Iran’s new leader: The three-man council running the country is preparing to introduce a new supreme leader. While Trump insists he wants a say in the matter, analysts say it’s not that simple.

Two of the largest shippers are no longer accepting cargo bound for the Persian Gulf (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd)

Oil prices have now increased by 50% so far this year

Qatar energy minister tells FT oil prices could hit $150 a barrel within weeks ($89 currently)

Oil storage tanks in Gulf region fill up, threatening output cuts, crude exports all but halted

Gas prices are at their highest point of either Trump term

Iran considers firms that buy US government debt as "legitimate targets,” official tells CNN

Kremlin says Iran war has boosted demand for Russian energy (throwing Ukraine under the bus)

CIA wants to arm Kurds to spark an uprising in Iran

More than 3,000 homes damaged, Iranian Red Crescent says

'Iran is United’: Iranian Journalist Reports from Tehran

Navid Zarrinnal, host of The Colony Archive podcast, joins us from Tehran to describe the devastating toll of what he calls the “unprovoked” bombing campaign by the U.S. and Israel, reporting over 1,000 deaths and the targeting of schools and hospitals.

Zarrinnal discusses the regional fallout of the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, the failure of "strategic patience," and how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is being used to levy a global economic cost against the escalation.

Iranian school attacked: One student killed in strike in city of Qazvin

Security footage has captured the moment a strike hit near a boys' school in Iran. The attack took place in the northwestern city of Qazvin. At least one student was killed in the strike. Students and teachers can be seen running for safety.

AI Deployed In Illegal Iran War

Jobs CRATER, Gas SKYROCKETS, Anti-War Vote FAILS

The BP team talks to Congressman Ro Khanna about the War Powers Resolution failing, major jobs losses in February, Trump and gas prices, and the AI targeting systems that potentially were used in the bombing of an Iranian school.

Mystery over Iran’s resilience; Trump’s surrender demand met by retaliation

Iran has refused to slow down even on the seventh day of the ongoing conflict. It has claimed to have obliterated the entire air defence and radar system of the US across the Middle East. The Iranians have targeted Tel Aviv and Jerusalem with more Khorramshahr-4. Donald Trump has, meanwhile, demanded a complete surrender of the Iranian leadership. There are also reports that Netanyahu is on the run, fearing reprisals from Tehran. Rifat Jawaid looks at the rapidly changing developments in the Middle East.

6 schools bombed now in Iran, and it was most likely the US that bombed the first school killing up to 180 school girls.

US-Israeli bombs strike dangerously close to civilian sites, CNN Investigates finds

The impact of the US and Israeli airstrikes across Iran has extended beyond hitting security infrastructure, also damaging nearby civilian sites including hospitals, a CNN investigation has found.

CNN found one impact crater measuring at least 40 feet (12 meters) wide at the offices of Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB in Tehran. Seen on satellite imagery, its diameter is consistent with those left by 2,000-pound bombs. On detonation, this weapon sprays white-hot metal fragments that can be lethal up to 1,000 feet away.

That crater lies just 100ft away from the Gandhi Hospital. Verified videos from the strike’s aftermath show shattered glass, collapsed walls and patients – including babies – being evacuated from the facility. Satellite imagery shows a communications mast at the broadcasting complex wiped out after the attack.

Wes Bryant, a former US special operations tactical air controller, told CNN there’s “no way this was not at least something equivalent to a 2,000-pound bomb.

Strikes also hit the police headquarters, flattening buildings, per satellite images. Videos show damage to several other hospitals in the immediate neighborhood. Bryant assessed this indicated the use of multiple munitions with a payload of 500 pounds or lower.

On Thursday, the World Health Organization confirmed it had verified 13 strikes on Iranian healthcare facilities.

A school in southern Iran was also directly struck, killing more than 160 students and staff, state media reported. It sits roughly 200ft from an Iranian military base, which was also hit. Neither the US nor Israel has acknowledged responsibility for that strike. A gymnasium in Fars province was also struck; Iranian media reported around 20 volleyball players were inside at the time. The target was unclear, but a police station lies nearby.

So relevant today

Rockets & Penises in the Persian Gulf | George Carlin | Jammin' In New York (1992)

Comedy legend George Carlin takes issue with the American penchant for war. He picks apart the Gulf War of the early 1990s, from U.S. leadership to the choice of targets for American aggression.

"Had to double check this said 1992 and not 2026. The man was a prophet."

"34 years later and it sounds like it was from last night"

Operation AIPAC Fury.

Congress is owned by the Israel lobby.

https://www.trackaipac.com/congress

https://theintercept.com/2024/10/24/aipac-spending-congress-elections-israel/

George Carlin was never relevant and pushing kosher humor to hide the real motive for the wars in the middle east: the Greater Israel project and the necessary destruction of all enemies of Israel there. 

This was a good comment about Sinwar the accelerationist, who started the decisive war between USrael and the Ummah:

"Gaza is an open air concentration camp, and there's no indication this will ever change. The Israelis are gobbling up increasing amounts of Palestine outside of Gaza. They're also normalizing relations with the Sunni Arab states to an unprecedented degree. The Abraham Accords were signed in 2020, and Israeli relations with the entire Sunni world are on an upward trajectory. The only faction within the region that could possibly come to your rescue is the Shia.

Sinwar's strategic decision was to force a "great battle," a "flood for Al-Aqsa." His calculus was that if Hamas initiated a massive, open attack on Israel, the Israelis would use it as a casus belli to implement their strategic goals with regard to Palestine. With relations still not fully normalized with the Arab states, this would heighten the contradictions within the Middle East and lead to a massive regional war. As the Israelis would be forced to go for broke, they'd attempt to also resolve their goals in Lebanon, which would of course suck in Hezbollah, and in turn suck in Iran.

The most mind boggling thing is that Sinwar set all of this in motion and then took up a rifle and went out to meet the IDF head on. Once Al-Aqsa flood began, the situation, which would pull in dozens of countries, was beyond his control."

https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/2028844716356223057

Sorry,you may ban me.but damn there is a LOT of USphobia and isrealiphobia on this site.

So much hatred.

Israel is the biggest terrorist state in the world and has an illegal nuclear arsenal. They murder women and children as easily as you and I breathe. They are an apartheid state. And my country, the United States of America, funds their debauchery. Highlighting that isn't hatred. It's shining a light on their abhorrent acts in the hopes that it will be brought to an end. My country was the most Pro Israel nation in the world. We were raised to be Pro-Israel. They didn't teach the full story of Israel. And finding out you've rooting for the villain most of your life is not a good feeling. It's something multiple generations of Americans are coming to grips with and we are not happy to have been played for fools.