Halo launching day one on PS5 tells us that Microsoft doesn't care at all about selling consoles. So, I see no reason to think they're going to put any effort into doing so. PS and Nintendo on the other hand do seem to care about selling consoles. With the reduced competition from MS, they probably won't be too aggressive with pricing. But, they're already undercutting MS. So, there's not much reason for anyone to buy an XB other than to run Gamepass games locally. But, they just raised the price of that way up, which should keep demand for new subscriptions down. Put all of that together, and it is hard for me to see 2mm units selling. I picked 1.5-2mm, because XBox is still a huge brand with local customers. And some people will replace systems that break, or add second units to their home.

Why are you overhinking it so much? Microsoft doesn't want to sell consoles and you are here thinking about games, prices and how much they'd sell with some effort.

They are putting that effort into selling as little as they can. So the question should be: "How many Xbox Series consoles does Microsoft want to sell in 2026?"

It should be easy to answear over 1,2m..... and honestly it is not.
I can imagine it going under that this year.
Another price increase, another GTA delay, it could legit happen.

I think most likely its in the 1.2m-1.5m range.
It can drop under 1.2m... 

And 1.2m is WiiU 2016 levels, The year Prior WiiU did over 3m. So yeah Xbox 2025 is worse than WiiU 2015.

They should definitely be able to hit 1.2m if they don't discontinue it, but it's sales are so low that the ram situation may make it more effort than it's worth to keep it going.

It will sell about 1.5 million simply because of GTA 6. It will basically sell nothing until November then there will be a sudden spark of life flash on the heart monitor.

GTA 6 isn't just a game... its an entire industry. They say it can raise consoles from the dead. They say it has that kind of power. When they said Everything Everywhere All At Once...they were talking about GTA 6.

There is a good chance that both Series and PS5 outperform 2025.

If GTA is delayed again then Xbox will sell sub 1 million.  We probably don't have courage to admit how low it will be.

I don't even know if MS will restock 2M Xboxes at the stores at this point, specially with the price of RAM *AND* SSD.