Nintendo's forecast of 19M was made when Nintendo had no idea that Sony would be so aggressive with price cuts in Europe this year, seems that it will have a pretty major impact on Switch 2 sales during December in Europe, given that Sony seems to continue to discount PS5 during December in Europe as well. I wonder if Nintendo is able to pivot and send some more units to other regions instead of Europe to replace the likely missed European sales.

Nintendo must have thought a few months ago that Switch 2 would be the main console in every region this holiday, but the price cut of PS5 in Europe basically made Switch 2 fairly irrelevant this holiday in that market.

A lot of people are switching from Xbox to Playstation since Microsoft basically gave up.

I don’t think you realize how low 19mil is given how 10mil NS2 systems gave already been shipped. For reference, the weakest Q3+4 for NSW was in FY’2025, during which nearly 8mil Switch 1 units were shipped. Being that a new Pokémon just released, Switch 2 is a new system, and seeing how strong Switch 2 sales have seemingly been throughout NA/JP this holiday quarter, there is no doubt Switch 2 will easily top 20mil this fiscal year.

Bloomberg has reported that Nintendo is hoping to produce over 22mil, though whether they can pull this off is TBD. This many units of a system in its first fiscal year is a very tall order.

But isn't Europe trending extremely low for Switch 2? I mean it looks likely it will do like 500-600k at most in November and then maybe 800-900k in December at most. It means this holiday is riding on Japanese and US sales for Switch 2, which isn't a strong place to be.

That would still be better than Switch 1 did in EU during FY’2025 and still pulled off nearly 8mil during the fina two quarters. You would have to believe Switch 2 is going to hit a cliff in all regions in order for fiscal year figures to fall short of 19mil.

Sony shipped 17.3 million PS5 during its first year, Microsoft shipped 12 million and the Switch 1 shipped 17.8 million in it's first year.  The first year of a console is never it's highest selling year of high selling consoles. 

In my store in France, we sold a huge number of PS5s. According to other colleagues, it's the same story in their stores. Similarly, Switch 2 sales have also increased thanks to the slight price drop. Sony announced at the end of September that it had sold 84.2 million units. I think that after the holiday season, the PS5 will be close to 90 million. I think they're going to break sales records and surpass the PS4 at the same point in its sales history.

Nintendo should really have put Sakurai on a new Smash instead of Kirby, imagine if a new Smash game for Switch 2 got dropped this november for Switch 2 instead of Kirby. It would have led to a lot of hype and increased sales. Instead Kirby did nothing in Europe and all the hype this holiday is about the PS5. Missed opportunity for Nintendo. Instead of releasing many smaller games this holiday they should have released something of a similar size to Mario Odyssey back in 2017. For new consoles, the prioritity should be bigger and fewer games over many but smaller releases, instead Nintendo released a lot of smaller games that don't have any impact on the appeal of the system.

Sony probably can't believe their luck in Nintendo making that sort of mistake, they know that if Nintendo dropped a smash or a 30th anniversary 3D Mario game this year the attention would have been all on Switch 2. Nintendo probably thought Donkey Kong would have a strong effect but it hasn't done anything to create hype for Switch 2 in Europe.

I could also see people buying up that PS5 now thinking a price increase could happen soon with the rapid rise in ram prices. A PS5 costs less than buying 64 GB ddr5 ram now a days.

Sephiran, you are going to give me a stroke (lol!). (i) Sakurai isn’t a Smash Bros machine; he is a game developer. (ii) Sakurai has stated very clearly that he has preference for Smash Ultimate to be his last as the lead director, and Nintendo has respected his wishes. (iii) Furthermore, chances are Smash is currently in development — and has been for a while — but with Sakurai merely in a supporting position, similar to Miyamoto’s contribution to Mario/Zelda games throughout the 2010s (during which we would see the release of Mario Odyssey and Zelda BotW, for instance).

Sakurai had worked on Smash Bros nonstop from 2003 all the way until 2023. He did good work with Smash Ultimate…let the man rest. Retro Studios was already fatigued of Metroid by the time of Metroid Prime 3: Corruption; Naughty Dog got fatigued of Sly Cooper and jumped to Uncharted, got tired of Uncharted and jumped to TLoU, and it seems they’ve also grown tired of TLoU and have jumped over to Intergalatic. These game devs aren’t machines.