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Forums - Sales - September 2025 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

A bit of cool information is that the PS5 has outsold lifetime sales of the PS3 in the US. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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trunkswd said:

A bit of cool information is that the PS5 has outsold lifetime sales of the PS3 in the US. 

This is very interesting, I'm looking forward to Sony's financial report, it's likely that the PS5 will surpass the PS3 in global sales later this year.



jvmkdg said:
trunkswd said:

A bit of cool information is that the PS5 has outsold lifetime sales of the PS3 in the US. 

This is very interesting, I'm looking forward to Sony's financial report, it's likely that the PS5 will surpass the PS3 in global sales later this year.

Shipment wise I would be surprised if it doesn't surpass PS3. Sales wise the PS5 might not surpass PS3 until early next year depending on the holiday boost. I'd say the case is similar with the Switch outselling the DS worldwide.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

@trunkswd

PS3 has sold 29.9 million units in the US and PS5 is currently at 29.32 million as of aug 2025.

Looks like PS5 could be undertracked by atleast 350k to 400k.



Geralt99 said:

@trunkswd

PS3 has sold 29.9 million units in the US and PS5 is currently at 29.32 million as of aug 2025.

Looks like PS5 could be undertracked by atleast 350k to 400k.

Our estimates have PS3 at 26.70 million units lifetime in the US, while we have PS5 at 26.61 million units as of August. We will have PS5 surpassing the PS3 in the US in September.

I am guessing you are looking at the North America figures, which has PS3 at 29.60 million and PS5 at 29.32 million. The PS5 is a little bit further behind the PS3 in Canada with the data we have, which is why the PS5 won't quite top the PS3 in North America in September.

Last edited by trunkswd - on 22 October 2025

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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trunkswd said:
Geralt99 said:

@trunkswd

PS3 has sold 29.9 million units in the US and PS5 is currently at 29.32 million as of aug 2025.

Looks like PS5 could be undertracked by atleast 350k to 400k.

Our estimates have PS3 at 26.70 million units lifetime in the US, while we have PS5 at 26.61 million units as of August. We will have PS5 surpassing the PS3 in the US in September.

I am guessing you are looking at the North America figures, which has PS3 at 29.60 million and PS5 at 29.32 million. The PS5 is a little bit further behind the PS3 in Canada with the data we have, which is why the PS5 won't quite top the PS3 in North America in September.

You're right. I was looking at the North American figures. My bad.



Geralt99 said:
trunkswd said:

Our estimates have PS3 at 26.70 million units lifetime in the US, while we have PS5 at 26.61 million units as of August. We will have PS5 surpassing the PS3 in the US in September.

I am guessing you are looking at the North America figures, which has PS3 at 29.60 million and PS5 at 29.32 million. The PS5 is a little bit further behind the PS3 in Canada with the data we have, which is why the PS5 won't quite top the PS3 in North America in September.

You're right. I was looking at the North American figures. My bad.

No worries. You aren't the first person to do that. Unless there are significant adjustments following Sony's earnings report the PS5 will easily top the PS3 in North America in October. PS5 has a good shot of outselling the PS3 worldwide by the end of the year. Though if it doesn't it will in early 2026.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Sales tidbit. I believe current numbers on here have a larger gap than 4.6% in the USA?

Though to match up with the PS5 surpassing PS3 lifetime it might be the PS4 figures are too low in the US as of month 59 rather than PS5 being too high?



Zippy6 said:

Sales tidbit. I believe current numbers on here have a larger gap than 4.6% in the USA?

Though to match up with the PS5 surpassing PS3 lifetime it might be the PS4 figures are too low in the US as of month 59 rather than PS5 being too high?

We have the PS5 a tiny bit less than 4.6% (it's like 4.5X%) through September. However our PS4 figures matches the old NPD numbers, while we know they tweaked them and had it a hair lower than before. We don't exactly know how much lower so we never tweaked our PS4 figures down. PS4 was at 4.3m through 3 months before and it was lowered to 4.2m according to NPD. Though it could be the case of rounding and a very tiny decrease from 4.25m to 4.24m.

Either way we should be within a percent or 2 of lifetime sales. 

Last edited by trunkswd - on 22 October 2025

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

The very last sentence:

'Super Mario Galaxy + Super Mario Galaxy 2 debuted in 4th place.'

Should be 14th place.