I agree with you on the prediction. I disagree on the implications.

Sony alone is not capable of influencing a large chunk of the market to design their games around their consoles specs as the "base spec" of sorts. If they launch an ultra powerful PS6 with no weaker versions, the console would still be held back because the vast majority of players would still be playing on popular weaker systems like the PS5, Switch 2, weaker gaming PC's, Xbox Series and mobile phones. PS4 and Switch 1 also might continue to be supported by some smaller developers for a while. The industry is gravitating towards weaker hardware due to diminishing returns, high costs, and a high percentage of low-end hardware gamers. Hardware upgrades will still matter of course, but the transition process is getting slower, and developers are targeting a weaker average compared to old generational transitions.

PS5 vs PS6 handheld should be interesting. PS5 will have the CPU, bandwidth, and rasterization advantage, but I suspect PS6 handheld's larger RAM and advanced ML and RT features to push it ahead in many cases. As far as "holding back" goes, I'd be more concerned about Switch 2, Series S, and comparable PC's if I cared (which I don't anymore). For more demanding games that skip these lower-end systems, I think most of them will support PS5 and comparable hardware. PS6 is getting held back regardless of specs. It's just the state of the industry, and a profit-centric Sony can do nothing about it.

The rumored PS6 (home console) specs are somewhere around a Nvidia 4070-4080.

That's not bad, but by 2027 or 2028, the 70 series GPUs will be out or just about to arrive, so nowhere close to cutting edge. 

Most developers are likely going to want games on both the lower spec handheld which will be sub-PS5 in raw performance. That will basically just create a massive crossgen period where sub-PS5 is the baseline for a long, long time.

So yeah, I think generations in the way we knew them in the past are basically coming to an end. It's just going to be "rolling transitions" where the previous platform is supported for practically for the entire "successor" product cycle too.

Nah.

PSP6 will be made at same tech as PS6 and will run PS6 games. Days of one console version were over the moment devs decided to include Quality/Performance (and now even Balanced) profiles into pretty much every release this gen. So handheld mode will be just another profile.

Think of it as PC settings, but instead of having everything adjustable on infinite combinations of hardware, just a few profiles on fixed hardware. That just is more of a "just", since it's not what consoles were before, but the times, they are a-changin.

From what I've read on gamefront, there will be three SKUs.

• PS6 handheld, able to be docked, roughly 2/3 as powerful as a PS5.
• PS6 budget console, same power as the docked handheld.
• PS6 main console, focus on power, definitely more powerful than PS5 Pro. 

The handheld and budget versions are supposed to be compatible with PS5 games in some form. Overall, the PS6 will definitely replace the PS5. But the cross-gen factor will be even more important than it already is, the transition period will probably be even longer than during the PS4 to PS5 transition and there will be backwards compatibility it seems, which is great. 

As for myself, I'm definitely interested in the dockable handheld. My favorite PlayStation so far has been the PSP and I love hybrids. Embrace the choice, PS fans. Portability is amazing and adds way more value than it deducts by "holding back" graphics. 

"Holding back" was a valid concern until what happened this generation. The majority of AAA 3rd party games skipped the Switch. Major developers were forced to either hold back more capable consoles/PC by designing around Switch specs then scaling up, or designing around higher PS4~ specs then heavily tweaking a Switch version (which can be expensive), or simply skipping the platform altogether.

PS5 was ultimately held back by the PS4 and Xbox One (like more powerful PC's are traditionally held back by consoles and weaker PC's) since they're the systems it shared its high profile AAA games with. It was a disappointment that killed the sense of generations. The concerns around Series S were justified too, as nobody really expected the cross-generational period to last so long. Everybody thought it was going to be relatively cheap and possible to wow us with nextgen goodness because that was the norm before the PS5 gen.

PS5 proved that Sony launching a powerful device will not dictate the direction of the industry. At some point in the future, I expect mobile phones to be the base spec and everything else will be "held back" by them.

I disagree with what I put in bold. I think most devs will completely drop support for XBSS/X when next gen starts because it's selling like Wii-U, and PS5 will become the new base. The Switch 2 apparently can't run Elden Ring as well as a base PS4 so I don't think devs will support that either. The PS5 will be the only console on the market that is both technically able and successful. PC is a different market and doesn't influence the console market. It's the other way around actually. The devs develop for the lowest spec console and then scale up for PC

Your post is saying that 2/3 of their new consoles will be weaker than PS5, but the 1/3 will still replace the PS5? Wouldn't that support my theory that it wouldn't replace the PS5? Most new hardware they are selling is weaker than PS5 but they're still aiming to replace it?

It's a complicated topic.

All popular platforms (including PC, which is a very wide range of specs) have a "gravitational pull" that will influence some developers in some way. But highend hardware are at a disadvantage, because making a technically jaw-dropping game then down porting is so much more expensive than making a less impressive version of the game then scaling up. AAA developers will try to adjust and find their new balance by targeting a reasonable average (then scaling down or up from there). So they will not go all the way down to Switch specs in 2020, or Switch 2 specs in 2027. PS5 seems destined to be the base spec for most AAA games in at least the first half of the PS6 generation, regardless of the existence of the PS6 handheld. The handheld will simply take advantage of that.

Switch 2, Series S, and comparable PC's will "future proof" each other to some extent because their specs are fairly similar, and one of them is massively popular. It should be relatively cheap to port less-demanding games between them. Future demanding games will use the PS5 as a base, until even more demanding PS6 exclusives arrive late in the gen (and I guess this is where you can argue that PS6 handheld and comparable hardware will hold back the PS6 IF the handheld is permenantly mandated. But the PS6 handheld should be powerful enough to run even PS6 exclusives at lower resolutions, fps, and settings. Turning off some RT features alone could save a ton of resources).

Yes, because it's not about power but the new platform. The Series S is not significantly more powerful than an Xbox One X, but Microsoft still focused on Series S (and X) because it was the new platform and a new platform generates excitement, higher software sales, etc. Same happened with the move from Wii U to Switch. I predict Sony will do the same thing: The PS6 consoles are supposed to replace the PS5 consoles. However, I also said that the cross-gen period will be even longer and backwards compatibility will be important. 

We have a certain subset of PlayStation fans on this forum who have constantly been arguing that the Switch 2 is not powerful enough, games on it are borderline unplayable, etc. Same for Series S holding things back. I was addressing these people, saying they should embrace the versatility portability brings. Personally, I don't think concerns around Switch 2 and Series S were justified because the large majority of customers don't care, and I have the same opinion regarding the PS6 handheld. 

This I half agree with, but I disagree that it will just be incidentally taking advantage. It will be a strict instruction from Sony that any PS6 game must support the handheld too and...therefore PS5 because it's easy port. Why would Sony damage it's PS6 handheld image as soon as devs move on from PS5? That's what would happen and fans would be angry that handheld is no longer supported. These things require commitment. 

Also, It's unfair to the Series S to say Switch 2 is similar in power. XBSS has CPU at least 3x more powerful, and superior bandwidth by 2-3x.

Disagree again. Handhelds are so weak relative to dedicated consoles. It will only just barely keep up with PS5 but won't come anywhere near the PS6 high end machine. 

No I'm sure it's about power and capability. The XBSS is significantly more powerful than Xbone X in terms of CPU and storage read speeds. It wasn't because it was new, but because whilst the Xbone X was good in some areas, it was terrible in others and overall was actually a very unbalanced console. Wii-U and Switch is a different story as the Wii-U sold horribly and they would've always wanted to move on from that.