@BKK2
I was referring to 19.5 as an unreal number if that is what is confusing you. That is a number of units in the channel that Microsoft cannot possible have unless the new manufacturers retooled their facilities in record time. Microsoft should still be working with the manufacturing rate they had early last month.
They have worked their way out of supply constraint by small margins. They may average 150,000 in weekly sales. They may sell 625,000 units to retailers monthly. That means they have 25,000 to 50,000 accumulation monthly of surplus systems within the channel. VGchartz says they have sold 18.35 million as of last week. They say they have sold over 19 million to retailers. That is a 650,000 difference. Given weekly depletion at its best they have added another 150,000 units into the channel. That would factor out to 800,000 units in the channel globally.
That means unless the new manufacturers have come into play they will still not have a million units in the channel for the launch of GTA IV. Even if the new manufacturers come into play they will still not have 1.5 million units. For reference when Halo 3 launched they were moving a quarter million units in the first week.
Basically in the short term they are far more likely to deplete the channel. Causing what is referred to as supply constraints. A month of strong sales can leave the channel depleted. Remember supply constrained doesn't mean that all the systems have been sold just the majority of them have been sold, and that could happen in as little as three weeks after Grand Theft Autos launch.
I hope you understand where I am coming from. Had the 360 sold over twenty million to retail it would probably not be a major concern, but right now the surplus of available systems is still recovering from the supply constraints of earlier this year it will not take much to shift them back.









