It may get close to a billion making it a solid 2nd.

A big thing will be seeing how many can gross over 500m. So far just mega IPs like Mario and Minecraft are going beyond that though Sonic 3 got really close. When comic book films were really huge something like Guardians of the Galaxy could gross nearly 800m despite the characters being pretty obscure before that so if a well made film based on a video game series the mass public largely doesn't know about does that well then video game films will truly have reached that level. Video games being a relatively new medium also gives some more growth potential down the line since it'll be a while still till a lot of elderly people will have grown up playing them.

@Norion That's true, and it's a shame Sonic 3 missed it, but each new Sonic movie has increased the gross over the previous one, so it's still on a positive track. Sonic 4 could do over 500m (especially if they change the release so it is not near Zelda lol). Mario 2 might not surpass Mario 1, but should still do 1b. I could see Zelda doing at least close to 1b.

Pre-release I was saying it would hit $1bn, after release I got a little unsure and lowered it to around $800m because I wasn't sure how its legs would hold up after all the Minecraft diehards and kids have gone to see it (the Cinemascore was overall B+ but Under-18s gave it an A). But seeing the 2nd weekend...Box Office Reddit seem to be saying it has had a really good 2nd weekend so far and $1bn seems even more likely now but I already made my prediction and changing feels like cheating, Lol. Doesn't mean I'm not doubting my own prediction now!

I don't think even if it hits $1bn+ it will beat Mario.

Really don't know why anyone underestimated it as much as they did though, even experts predictions were completely off. It will be a huge success for Warner Bros and much needed relief for the company. Probably saved some jobs and took some pressure off whatever is next for Warner Bros given the struggles they've had lately.

I think the Zelda film grossing even half as much as Mario would be quite surprising unless it's a truly incredible film that people who have never touched a Zelda game before can adore. While the IP has grown in popularity a lot the past decade there's still a gigantic gap between it and Mario and it being live action and presumably not as family friendly/kid focused as the Mario film means there's gonna be way less parents seeing it with their kids and thus way less people not into the IP buying tickets for it. 

There's also that the Mario film could get away with not impressing film critics due to the nature of the IP and the type of film it is but if the Zelda film fails to impress with its story and characters then some people into Zelda won't even bother seeing it. The potential range is probably fairly large for that one as a result, depending on the writing quality I could see anywhere between 300m-600m for it.

It surpassed Warcraft, Pokémon Detective Pikachu and Sonic the Hedgehog 3. It is now at number 02.

With the 2nd weekend done it passed the 500 million mark sitting at $550,561,733.

Mario 2 will do 1.5 bill+, Zelda will do 1+ billy.

With the 3rd weekend done it passed the 700 million mark sitting at $720,827,000.

With the 4th weekend done it passed the 800 million mark sitting at $816,566,661.

With the 5th weekend done it is sitting at $873,409,479.