Maybe the Switch 2 restocks will be more expensive now?

As mentioned the base PS5 is not selling less than the base PS4 since considering the PS4 had the Pro boosting sales for all of 2017 while the PS5 only had its Pro for the last couple months last year the base PS5 and base PS4 are probably basically even right now launch aligned. If the PS5 ends up selling less lifetime its Pro selling a lot worse will be a really big factor. 

The base PS5 is 1.5 million behind the PS4. It's not a matter of if, but when.

"Novelty"
"strike gold twice"
"something lightening bottle something"

Lol. They have no credible competition other than the original. Wii and DS weren't a novelty, they were core. They're what you get when you let someone other than Miyamoto design a new console.

"Somehow, Covid effect has returned"

Unless something real happens with the tariff situation, unlikely (but would be entertaining), years one to two should go mostly undisturbed selling basically whatever they can produce.

Whether software quality and output can continue to the same standard or better to sell average consumers on the new pricing structure, we'll start to really see after that first year plus period. But that's a fair bit into the future.

The high barrier to entry might push people on the fence to opt for a current Switch, but the only consequence of that is insuring Switch sails past PS2. Whether that cannibalises Switch 2 sales will only be seen after the early years period, if those same prospective buyers still don't see enough value to jump to the higher price tier.

I'd say the floor is 140M. 170M is more optimistic but also realistic with them building on the Switch success with a true generational leap in technology, refining all the rough edges that needed improving and the most smooth transition ever.

I'll split the difference and vote 'IT PRINTS MONEY!'.

My current realistic guess is probably more like 120-140mil range, but I'll stay optimistic with my 150-165 right now.

It’s impossible to say anything (we only know the first two months of this system’s lineup lol); however, assuming the economy doesn’t completely collapse, I’m leaning toward 120-140mil. Maaaaaybe 140-160mil? I could see it, especially if Nintendo gives the system a solidly consistent stream of releases.