With 3.8 million disc sales in the first Q1 2008, i think things r looking prett good for Blu-Ray...

Just for comparison in Q1 2007 they sold 830k.. so that is around 500% increase. plus in Q4 2007, the holiday season Blu-ray sold like 3.1 million disc.. so it is even better than the last yr holiday season...

I think they r doing better than the analyst so far... but they need to keep the prices lower.. else..

Yes. They have been $340-350 since Fall 07. They should go below $300 this year and if PS3 drops to $300, I'd expect them to be $250.

Opps, I was wrong on all that.  Amazon used to sell them for $340 but now the cheapest are $399. 

license that technology to china's manufacturers, I'm sure we'll see sub $200 player in less than a year if they do so.

Exactly , if the Blue ray assocation (or what ever they are called )  leave it too long they'll eventlualy pay for their greediness.Lower prices would help blu-ray become the standard which would equate to long term profitiability for the owners of blu-ray.

Hmm, just the idiocy of an analyst, or true FUD-spewing?

The PS3 effect spurred enough Blu-Ray sales to make the studios want to bury HD-DVD and move on to a Blu HD future.  YES, some people buy PS3 for games only, and some for movies only, but the fact remains that Blu-Ray sales destroyed HD-DVD sales.

Yeah, people have large libraries of DVDs....and PS3 plays them, and upscales them -- very well.  So  unlike the VHS to DVD switch, people don't have to abandon their movie libraries when they switch to the new format player -- Blu-Ray players.  This will help accelerate and smooth adoption. 

Studios always "would have liked" something more than what they got, but the fact remains: HD movies will grow faster with a Blu-Ray drive in the PS3 than they would have pretty much any other way, including just one HD format with no competition, but without an HD drive built into a gaming console.  Period. 

more BS from analyst

Yes, BR is not DVD and has still a long way to do before being mainstream

BUT I assume, this Xmas, PS3 300$

All is said.

Blu-ray may not be mainstream, but I'll take it any day over DVD.

if that 3.8 million BR is worldwide, that kinda sucks....
3.8 million discs in a quarter with 10M PS3 and like 2M others that means people buy those at a rate of 1.3 BR per year...

IMHO BR is a still born that will be on life support for the better part of a decade before it is relayed.
There were many reasons to get a DVD player: video quality, sound, extra features, medium durability, portability, compatibility (laptops and PC), shelf space!
There are less reason to get a BR: HD video, HD sound, more extras.... (I, like a lot of people only care about deleted scenes).
But there are also reasons not to get one: 2x the price of DVDs and price for a HD TV, BR player, HD sound system... and HDCP incompatibility problems.

Hmm. so this analyst expects stand alone blu-ray players to catch up to PS3 in marketshare by 2013.

If we are optimistic and say that the PS3 has sold 70 million by then, then that means that there will be around the same number of stand alone players.

70 million stand alones versus whatever huge number (probably ner a billion) DVD playes... I don't think Blu-Ray will be standard for a good while yet.
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However It should become the standard at least, which is good for Sony and means it was a good idea to put it in the PS3 (because it was the major force in stopping HD-DVD).

Many of your arguments could have been used back in the the days of VHS as well. Undoubtedly VHS was far cheaper and dvds were more expensive however over time prices come down and the people will always choose higher quality as long as it becomes affordable.