Even if this is off by 5 points, the most Selzer has ever been, this is a catastrophic result for Trump that puts Nebraska-02 and likely the neighboring Midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin out of contention.

At this point is Pennsylvania or nothing for him.

The one time in the list that the pollster had the Democrats ahead, they were notably off.

The big wild card this election is that there will be more registered partisan voters that vote for the opposite party than usual, and most of them aren't going to talk about it. Makes polling all the more difficult, but at the same time provides more potential for positive surprises once all the votes have been counted.

The whole run-up to election day focuses on just seven states, but there may be more states in play than we know.

Send Walz in for a last minute stop in Iowa!

My default position is ignore the polls and vote but I don't blame anyone for taking a lot of optimism from this, Ann Selzer is the best pollster in Iowa and one of the best in America. Trump will be sweating bullets about this poll tonight. Now finish it America and end this miserable dickheads political career once and for all (sure he may run again in 2028 but he'll have zero chance of winning at 82).

Is it worth mentioning they were only off by presidential elections at the most by +2?

But also, nobody is right forever, maybe it's time for Ann's credibility to take a smash. Got to give her credit at least for not herding, even if she's wrong, her reputation is on the line while most others are herding like cowards.

Crosstabs.

Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That's driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.

Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.

Overall, Harris holds a 20-point lead with women, 56% to 36%, similar to where she was in September. But Trump's lead with men has shrunk from 27 points in September (59% to 32%) to 14 points today (52% to 38%).

If Ann ends up being right though, so many Republicans are going to backstab Trump in an instant and pretend they never supported him/always hated him, Lmao. They'll dump him and MAGA so fast from a result like this. It'll be a sudden "I don't know her" apology tour from Republicans who supported Trump.

Bwuahahahahaha.

Their worst result was the last 2018 governor's poll, but back then there were 7% undecideds that could have broken 5-to-1 for the Republican candidate. Now it's just 3% undecideds plus 2% who didn't reveal their vote.

Even if they are *all* Trump voters, and everyone saying RFK just votes Trump instead, he's lost a precious 2-3% vs. Harris compared to Biden in the Midwest that will shore up margins nicely in the other states she needs.

Oh sure but my point was that, would the methodology be different for president versus governor/senator polling? Do we put more weight in the governor result or more weight in her presidential specific accuracy?