Dear Bill Clinton,

Most Jewish people willingly immigrated out of the middle east before modern times. A claim to land is not eternal. Do Native Americans have an eternal claim to the land of the USA? Should all non-native people be forced to move back to whatever country their ancestors came from? This is why people as old as Biden and Trump have no business being in office. They refuse to update their ideas with new research.

Look at this shit!

I'm almost done with these professionals, pollsters included, they're all herding (as Nate said), everyone is terrified of being wrong again so they're practically all saying the same shit "it's a toss-up/draw" with a 4-5% MoE (useless!) to cover our asses and nobody has the confidence to put their necks on the line this time around, they underestimated Trump in 16/20, they underestimated Democrats in 22, now they're all just say "fuck it, Harris may win, Trump may win" Lmao.

Boring. I'm just waiting until election day and seeing where things fall.

Looks like we'll be moving on from Biden quickly, because Trump messed up where it matters: With women. His statement from a few weeks ago that he will be the protector of women was appalling enough, but now he has doubled down on it by saying that he will be their protector whether they like it or not.

There's already a gender gap in early voting because women are fired up due to the abortion topic, but when Trump talks like that, he's just adding fuel to that fire. It's also amusing how the pundits on Fox are worrying about Republican wives betraying their husbands by secretly voting for Harris. This is lunacy that is on a similar level as the conspiracy theory about the most recent Super Bowl, and what these two things have in common is that Fox and friends are feeling fear. And in both cases their fear is justified.

An assumption of inferential parametric statistics is that the distribution of sample means is roughly normally distributed, with their mean approximating the population mean, becoming more normal and a closer approximation of the population mean as the number of samples increase. See: Central limit Theorem When I say "cutoff the tails" I mean that they're not including polls that would be at the tail-ends of said normal distribution of sample means. 

Again, there is no "right" or "wrong" as a binary here. "Rightness" and "wrongness" are continuous values, defined by how closely the mean of the aggregation of samples matches the population mean (and therefore the result of an election.) 

It's impossible to get a poll that perfectly represents the population distribution, for many reasons, but mainly because that population is a moving target and you don't know what the population mean is. That is why statisticians do the next best thing, form a distribution of samples that approximate the population distribution's value at their mean. This is the basis of the field of statistical inference.

Weighing the sample is a useful technique when you know where the bias is, so I don't think they should abandon it. It does make polling more accurate so long as there is a good enough threshold of what "knowing where the bias is" means. Of course, that isn't always sound, which is why we see things like herding. 
.

Getting fairly confident that Harris will win, but there's no way MAGA republicans will accept defeat even in the case of a landslide victory so better brace yourselves for some messy weeks/months. I can already see Elon sharing all sorts of insane conspiracies on X.

It's not even true.

The Natufians were first in the area. Jericho was founded 9,600 BC, Jerusalem 3,000 BC. The Israelites 'invaded' in 1,290 BC, led by Moses across the Red Sea into then called Canaan. The Philistines (Hebrew word for invaders) came from Crete in the 12th century BC, shortly after the Israelites.
https://www.npr.org/2019/07/03/738586883/dna-study-reveals-philistines-were-originally-from-europe.

However Palestinians have older, Natufian DNA: More recent studies since 2017^[32][33] have found that Palestinians, and other Levantine people, are primarily descended from ancient Levantines present in what is today Israel and Palestine, dating back at least 3,700 years.^[34] According to Marc Heber et al, all modern Levantine Arabs descend from Canaanite-like ancestors, whereas later migrations impact on their population ancestry was slight.^[35]

So no, Palestinians were in the 'holy land' before Israelites.


It has always been Europe attacking Jews

Philistines from Crete in the 12th century BC
Romans from Italy in 1st century BC
Anti-semitism in Europe in the 1800s
Holocaust in the 1940s

Elon is 100% laying the groundwork for that, I think he'll use the betting odds as evidence for an election steal (if Harris wins) and also he has been posting inaccurate information already about Republicans "lead" in certain areas, using it to say that it should be an easy victory for Republicans. It may get messy but this time Harris team will be prepared with an army of lawyers and Biden is the President so they'll be no Jan 6th nonsense or if there is one, Biden will stamp it out quickly.

I agree with that but I need to add that there was no Exodus from Egypt. A group of hundreds of thousands can't wander around the desert for 40 or 50 years and not leave archeological evidence. Yet we find none in the Sinai desert. Not to mention Egypt owned and controlled the Sinai and Palestine areas at the time of the so called Exodus.  So were the Israelites fleeing from Egypt into Egypt?

If this, "Trump has it in the bag" rhetoric is the dominating sentiment in conservative circles it may make some of their voters complacent and reduce their turnout a bit. As the video and recent posts here go on to say, it's also obvious that the groundwork is already being laid to immediately claim fraud if Trump loses.

True, there's no evidence, only a lot of inconsistencies in the stories

For example

If you start with the assumption that an Exodus occurred, then one is bound to find some likely date. You have begged the question and supported a gigantic fiction. One might as well ask what the exact date was than Captain Ahab harpooned Moby Dick. The probability that an Exodus occurred in 1186 BCE vanishes in comparison to the probability that no Exodus occurred at all. All of the archaeological and linguistic evidence shows that the Israelites developed peacefully in Canaan as Canaanite — there was no sojourn in Egypt, there was no Moses, there was no Exodus, and there was no conquering war. It’s all just a nice story book, like Moby Dick.

That view is supported of course by the impossibility of fixing a date, with estimates ranging from 1600 BCE to 1100 BCE, along with the utter absence of any evidence of Israelite slaves in ancient Egypt, and the absence of any archaeological evidence in Sinai. If Mount Sinai was a real place, where is it? Why was the site not preserved and revered? Why has it not been a site of pilgrimage for Jews for 3,000 years not to mention modern tourism?

But the big problem is that your date is nonsensical in the general chronology of Genesis and Exodus. If the Israelites left Egypt around 1186 BCE, that means that they entered Egypt around 1586 BCE. But that is impossible because Abraham, from Ur, was said to be a Chaldean (according to Genesis) or a Sumerian assuming he predated the Chaldeans. The Chaldeans did not exist until 900 BCE at the earliest, so you have Moses predating Abraham. On the other hand, if Abraham was born in Sumer, then he dated to before 2000 BCE and standard estimates similar to yours put him at about 2200 BCE. But if that was the date of Abraham then you are suggesting that four generations of his family spanned 600 years. That, of course, is impossible under any chronology. The whole thing is just an absurdity.


So more likely is Israelites and Palestinians lived together peacefully as Canaanites until the Philistines showed up and later the Romans. Both Jews and Muslims continued to live in the area peacefully until the 1900s when Zionist immigration began.

David either never conquered Jerusalem or conquered it from his own people...

2 Sam 5:6-10 David captures Jerusalem from the fiercely independent Canaanite tribe of Jebusites in c.1004BC.

Jebusites being Canaanites that lived in Jerusalem.

Ancient propaganda!



Anyway typical for an American president to cite the bible as a right to claim to land...