Also it's fine to have fear, complacency is bad, but dooming that it's already lost helps nobody, it's exactly what Republicans want Democrats to feel like, so that it discourages others from even bothering cause "it's already lost" I've always taken the stance it'll be a close race which Trump can win, use that fear of him winning to keep up the fight until the end, don't just say "We've already lost!" and give up all hope, it's not ever yet.

Edit - Also, Democrats always do this, no offence but Democrats are the biggest doomers on the planet.

You have a point there. What happened to the party that used to dominate small towns and urban centers alike by its connections to the working class? Trading non-college-educated Whites and now even PoCs for (some of) the Republican college-educated vote is a surefire manner of losing the EC for a long, long time. There could be no worse combo in that regard.

It'll be even worse after 2030, the blue wall will be destroyed (-16 or so ECs) by the next apportionment.

That being said, I think Trump can and will still lose because he's a deranged lunatic who is bleeding in the suburbs worse than Goldwater. But just.

If Trump wins it will come down to a few core factors.

1. Inflation, the average American will blame the incumbent government for their groceries being more expensive today than 4 years ago and believe that someone new can fix it where the incumbent government has failed to do so, these are low-educated voters because they don't understand how this works or how Trump would have little ability to fix it, not to mention his other economic policies are agreed upon by economists as being much worse than Harris policies. But the average voter will pin blame on Harris as part of the incumbent government and say lets try someone new.

I think these voters represents a large portion of Trump voters and will be the core reason why Harris may lose. For some reason, Conservatives across the world are often thought of as being the "financially savvy" party despite the fact that it's always this group of people that crash the economy and fuck things up and it's the left wing governments left to pick up the pieces and restore things. Left wing governments have a problem in dispelling this nonsense, likely because Conservatives are seen as being more friendly to the rich, whilst not understanding that Conservatives usually only benefit the top 1% and people still believing in trickle down economics.

This voting block represents a group of people who are largely selfish and only care about their own needs, so other policies won't matter to them, it doesn't matter that Trump is a fascist as long as their eggs are cheaper, it doesn't mean they "agree" with his fascism but they simply don't give a shit about it because they only care for themselves, that's quite a lot of humanity sadly. But they will turn on Trump the moment he can't get them cheaper groceries.

2. Millions of Americans that simply agree with Trump's fascism. They hear what Trump is saying, they understand what Trump is saying and they agree with it, they're full of hatred against anyone different from themselves. We ought to stop acting like Americans are special angels compared to other countries, that America is immune to this kind of stuff, if other countries can elect fascist because a large portion of the public agrees with their fascism then why can't America? America doesn't have the same experience of Nazism as Europe did, I don't know what the hell is taught about WW2 in American schools but as an outside observer, it doesn't look like it's good enough when Trump can praise Nazi Generals and say Hitler had some good ideas and still have millions of Americans voting for him or Americans feel confident waving Nazi flags around.

3. Immigrant scare tactics which has sadly probably worked on Arizona's voting block, just blame immigrants for all of the countries problems and give everyone a common enemy to be afraid of/hate then blame the left wing base as letting them "swarm" into the country and "letting immigrant murderers take over the country" These voters are a mix fear and low-education (no, I'm not an advocate for open borders, Lol).

The voters will 99% be average Americans, not "PHD Scientists" and I'd love for those PHD Scientist to explain how Trump's economic policies are better for the average American (not the super wealthy) than Harris policies (which dozens of economists have already said Harris policies are far better). I'd love for them to explain how Trump's foreign policy won't result in damage America's reputation with allies. I'd love them to tell me how well Trump's border wall went last time and his trade war with China. This leads me to believe they support Trump because they're already rich who stand to benefit while everyone else suffers (I.E. They do not represent the average American) or they agree with Trump's fascism.

This doesn't mean I underestimate them, or anyone underestimates them, Harris campaign has been banging on since the start that this will be a close election and they're the underdogs, I also am not labelling all Conservatives as stupid, I'm labelling the majority of Trump voters as a mixture of fascist, low-educated or simply selfish. I take fascists seriously and low-educated voters only help those fascists.

Some of Harris policies are meh, and some of her and Democrats stances are shit, but it's pretty fucking obvious that her economic policies are far superior to Trump's for the average American, who can only muster "drill baby drill" (when America is already drilling more oil than ever) and his utterly insane tariff idea. She is also not a fascist insistent on dismantling America's democratic institutions while Trump is and you'd have to either be an isolationist or insane to think Trump's foreign policy is better than Harris.

This would have always been a close race, no matter who was running, because firstly America is too divided as a country, Trump allowed people to express their hidden fascism and let that rot grow in the country. Secondly because of inflation and grocery bills and your average voter is selfish and low-educated on how much power a president has in dealing with their grocery bills. Nobody in Harris campaign has underestimated Trump, Harris has ran about as good of a campaign as she could, especially given the time constraints and attachment to Biden. Don't really think she could have done much more, if she loses then Democrats would have lost no matter what.

If your friend is voting for Trump then I'm sorry, I'm not going to spare their feelings and blame Harris, Lol.

Woah man. I wouldn't say MAGA people are stupid. you have "plenty of college educated friends and family who are perfectly smart and successful, and they are Trumpers."

You have a point there. What happened to the party that used to dominate small towns and urban centers alike by its connections to the working class?

I'm more and more convinced that pollsters don't know what's happening either, that's why they're all practically merging on the same thing, if Harris wins then they're right because of MoE, if Trump wins then they're right because of MoE. It's only a landslide victory which will make pollsters wrong this time around, which makes me a little suspicious.

Fun fact: the most successful third party candidate of the past 100 years, by far, was George Wallace. A campaign fueled on pure anger captured 45 electoral votes in the South in 1968. That’s honestly who Trump reminds me of. 

Another fun fact: after surviving an assassination attempt, Wallace became a changed man who apologized for his support for segregation and asked for forgiveness from black Americans. Trump survived an assassination attempt and tripled down on anti-immigrant/anti-trans rhetoric.

Trump was the most recent guest on Joe Rogan's long-form podcast and surprisingly, i actually dislike him a little less after watching this.  Trump is acting like a normal human, not unhinged at all.  And Joe is buying it all, and compliments Donald several times.  

Anyway, i left this here for anybody that is intrigued.