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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

the-pi-guy on 24 July 2024
Shtinamin_ said:

I have a set of predictions* for the 2024 US Presidential Election.

Deep Color: Safe +15 & Up
Color: +6 to +14
Light Color: +2 to +5
Murky Color: 0 to +1.

Your map is absurd.

California is a safe blue state, Biden won it in 2020 by 30 points. 
Minnesota hasn't voted red in decades.

This is currently how the election will probably play out. Some states like Virginia could go red, Georgia could go blue. 

Wisconsin and Michigan are going to be close, but I expect they'll be blue. They've been voting pretty blue the past few elections.

Shtinamin_ said:

1. Vice President Kamala Harris won't be the Democrat nominee. But if she somehow is, she will elect the Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. 

2. Looking at polls right now, the following states will flip red: AZ, GA, ME at large, MI, MN, NE 2, NJ, NH, NM, NV, PA, VA, WI

It's pretty safe to say she'll be the nominee at this point. 

Most of these polls are pretty meaningless at this point.  It's probably how Biden would have performed in a bad week. Not Kamala Harris, and frankly I doubt Biden would even perform that bad on most weeks.  

Shtinamin_ said:

4. MI, PA, WI will flip red due to the appeal from the OH senator J. D. Vance.

5. PA will flip red due to the attempted shooting of President Donald J. Trump

4. What appeal does he have? 

5. Doubtful. 

Shtinamin_ said:

6. GA will flip because Vice President Kamala Harris or whoever is chosen as the nominee at the DNC 8/19/24 might not be able to get on the ballot. The same goes for AZ, CA, MD, NC, OH, SD, WV (though the democratic party's presidential nominee and VP nominee will most likely be able to get on the ballots).
CA and SD will find a way. OH will push their date back, but that is only approved after the new proposed deadline. 

GA deadline was July 9th before President Joe R. Biden dropped out, VP Harris wasn't even a thought to the general public at the time.
AZ: 8/9/24
CA: 8/14/24
MD: 8/16/24
NC: 8/2/24
OH: 8/7/24
SD: 8/13/24
WV: 8/19/24
The DNC says they will have a pre-nomination by 8/1/24.

From what I understand, Georgia doesn't work this way. From what I've read in Georgia, you're not even really voting for a candidate, you're voting for party electors, who would just vote for Kamala or whoever they want. In other words, even if Joe Biden is on the ballot, all of those votes would go towards whoever happened to be the Democratic nominee.

Democrats haven't assigned a nominee, so I'm not sure why you think it makes sense that states would have deadlines so early. If the deadline has already passed, then Democrats would have to nominate someone sooner, and they'd hold their convention months ago instead.  

Shtinamin_ said:

7. If Vice President Kamala Harris is the presidential nominee, she will be running at a 37.8% approval for a -13.6 (which is 4 points better than President Joe R. Biden) against President Donald J. Trump at 42.3% approval for -10.7 (it was a -12 before President Joe R. Biden dropped out). Approval ratings on average match what they will receive in the election.

8. Betting odds set Trump at around 65.36% - 66.67%, with Harris at 38.17% - 41.67%

9. Third-party candidates like RFK Jr., Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, and Cornel West all take voters away from VP Harris. Randall Terry takes voters away from Trump. I can see third parties getting nearly 10% of the total vote (RFK Jr. ~6%, Oliver ~2%, Stein ~>1%, West ~>1%, Terry ~>1%).

*All predictions may change given any new light of information.

If there are any questions, I'll be happy to answer though please forgive if it takes a while. Also, does anyone know what happened to the "Trump v Biden Political Campaign, Policies, etc" thread? I don't know if my answer to Pemalite was ever put up.

I would argue these approval numbers mean very little. Everyone knows who Donald Trump is, plenty of people don't know who Kamala Harris is.

Trump vs Biden thread was closed, since Biden has been dropped.



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BFR on 24 July 2024
RolStoppable said:
zorg1000 said:

Even if it was based on pre-Biden dropping out, it was still a bad prediction. Trump wasn’t going to flip 12 states from 2020.

Your lack of faith is why God doesn't talk to you.

Rol, is that a personal attack on Zorg?  Look out, the Thread Police (TP) are watching all of us these days.



the-pi-guy on 24 July 2024
BFR said:
RolStoppable said:

Your lack of faith is why God doesn't talk to you.

Rol, is that a personal attack on Zorg?  Look out, the Thread Police (TP) are watching all of us these days.

Thread police? 

Only one person has gotten banned.



BFR on 24 July 2024
the-pi-guy said:
BFR said:

Rol, is that a personal attack on Zorg?  Look out, the Thread Police (TP) are watching all of us these days.

Thread police? 

Only one person has gotten banned.

True, but the VGC mods are watching us carefully. Do you agree with my statement?



zorg1000 on 24 July 2024
BFR said:
RolStoppable said:

Your lack of faith is why God doesn't talk to you.

Rol, is that a personal attack on Zorg?  Look out, the Thread Police (TP) are watching all of us these days.

It would only count as an attack if I wanted god to talk to me.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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BFR on 24 July 2024

Actually Pi, don't respond to my question. It is clear to me, that the US election on Nov. 5, has completely divided this country.

--------------------------------------------

I hate to see it happen, but we are watching it unfold in real time.

I like this website. I am a lifelong video gamer.  I love looking at the sales numbers here, as well as VG news.

I also like this forum, it is cool. I hope when the US presidential election is over, that we can go back to normalcy here.



Chrkeller on 25 July 2024
burninmylight said:
zorg1000 said:

For sure, it’s easier said than done but I think a general blueprint like this would be very effective at getting swing voters/centrists/independents: 

Economy-this one is tougher, you don’t want to sound out of touch by bragging about the stock market when people are still struggling from high prices & borrowing costs. It has to be a message about how things like the stock market, low unemployment & inflation cooling shows the worst is behind us but there is still a lot of work to be done.

And get back to focusing on eliminating student loan debt. That was a gamechanger for me and millions of others, and I kept saying that if Biden can eliminate mine, he can do whatever he wants after that, he has my vote. I talked to a friend last weekend who said his quality of life got better by magnitudes after his student loan debt was removed from his credit history. I wasn't even aware of that aspect of it.

In fact, if I'm Biden, I'm going scorched earth and eliminating it on my way out as a leg up for the Dems in terms of PR (I know he gave it a half-ass try already, but what does he have to lose at this point?), and while everyone is distracted, pardoning Hunter's crimes, lol

The republican counter point that Biden was buying votes wasn't far off?

Personally I would stay away from debt forgiveness, a bunch of people don't like it, including myself.



burninmylight on 25 July 2024
Chrkeller said:
burninmylight said:

And get back to focusing on eliminating student loan debt. That was a gamechanger for me and millions of others, and I kept saying that if Biden can eliminate mine, he can do whatever he wants after that, he has my vote. I talked to a friend last weekend who said his quality of life got better by magnitudes after his student loan debt was removed from his credit history. I wasn't even aware of that aspect of it.

In fact, if I'm Biden, I'm going scorched earth and eliminating it on my way out as a leg up for the Dems in terms of PR (I know he gave it a half-ass try already, but what does he have to lose at this point?), and while everyone is distracted, pardoning Hunter's crimes, lol

The republican counter point that Biden was buying votes wasn't far off?

Personally I would stay away from debt forgiveness, a bunch of people don't like it, including myself.

Buying votes by... giving citizens what they want? Isn't that what we elect politicians for? Isn't that what they campaign on?



Chrkeller on 25 July 2024
burninmylight said:
Chrkeller said:

The republican counter point that Biden was buying votes wasn't far off?

Personally I would stay away from debt forgiveness, a bunch of people don't like it, including myself.

Buying votes by... giving citizens what they want? Isn't that what we elect politicians for? Isn't that what they campaign on?

Depends on how the action is targeted.  to be fair the other side does it to with promise of tax breaks.  so it isn't like this is new.  but yeah, seems like buying votes to me.  



PDF on 25 July 2024
the-pi-guy said:

Your map is absurd.

California is a safe blue state, Biden won it in 2020 by 30 points. 
Minnesota hasn't voted red in decades.

This is currently how the election will probably play out. Some states like Virginia could go red, Georgia could go blue. 

Wisconsin and Michigan are going to be close, but I expect they'll be blue. They've been voting pretty blue the past few elections.

This is the correct map. With the exception I think it's too early to tell with GA now that Harris is the nominee. I also think AZ will be closely tied to if Mark Kelly is chosen as VP. I think in the end PA and MI will go blue.

I think it will really come down to 2-3 states, AZ & Wisconsin (maybe GA). Harris just needs to win one of those three. 



 

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