On this note, a recent Times poll has Trump up by 13 points in Florida. Which makes me very happy. Because it would help explain the results we are seeing.

Florida has long been a draw for older retirees, especially white ones, due to their low income tax. More recently it has become a mecca for covid deniers, homophobes, transphobes, xenophobes, and confederate sympathizers thanks to good ol' Ron Desantis' policies. It has helped Ron Desantis maintain his seat as governor, but could potential cost the republican party the election.

If the times figure is right, and polls should always be taken with a grain of salt, then we would have to wonder where the votes are coming from. Donald Trump is pretty polarizing, to put it mildly, and it's unlikely his own support jumped among the 2020 voting pool. It is more likely that the 10% jump comes from voters from other states who have relocated.

According to AI, about 2 million people moved to Florida since 2020. Of course, AI is not always accurate, but it seems that about 3-400k people have been moving to Florida each year, so that figure is in the ballpark.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2024-07-23/floridas-population-passes-23-million-for-the-first-time-due-to-residents-moving-from-other-states

In 2020, Florida had about 10 million voters out of a population of about 20 million. Assuming the people moving are voting at about the same rate, then somewhere between 800k and 1m new residents will be voting. Using very rough math, that would be just about 10%. Of course, it's unlikely all of those people will be voting for Trump, and Florida has a relatively high death rate due to its aging population, but in any event it could be a very big swing. I think 13% is likely overstating it, but 5-6% could be likely.

The question is where those voters are coming from. If they are from NY or California, then that kind of washes out. Florida becomes a safe red state instead of a swing state, which is kind of a bummer. But, suppose some of those people are from swing states... what does that do?

https://247wallst.com/special-report/2024/02/26/americans-are-flocking-to-florida-from-these-states/

According to the never wrong internet, about 10k people from Wisconsin moved to Florida in 2022. Lets assume that was an average year. That means about 40K over 4 years. Lets suppose that 50% of those are adults who will vote. And lets suppose they skew 65-35% republican. That would mean 26k Trump votes are leaving Wisconsin, along with 14K Harris votes. So, a 12K net gain in the democratic vote share. Considering that Biden won the state by about 21K, that's a big deal. 

If something similar is happening in Michigan and Pennsylvania, then it would be hard for Trump to win those states. And if Kamala wins those states and all of the safe Democratic states, then she gets to 270 even (luckily the effort to change Nebraska's electoral laws at the 11th hour seems to have failed), and that's the ballgame no matter what happens in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, or North Carolina.

That's all a vast oversimplification, but point is, there may be something to that shifting demographic theory.

Would be nice to go back to talking policies again, even if I strongly disagree with a lot of them.

But instead Americans have to deal with "THEY'RE EATING THE CATS AND DOGS" "JEWISH SPACE LASERS" "MAN MADE HURRICANES" "DRILL BABY DRILL" "TARIFFS FOR EVERYONE" "SHE AIN'T BLACK" and whatever other insane nonsense comes out of the mouths of the likes of Trump, MTG, Gaetz, etc.

A MAGA friend of mine posted this on his Facebook page a few hours ago:

Here's my reply from a few mins ago:

The fear mongering is pretty intense this election...
I just watched Elon Musk advocate for Trump in a speech... And the proclamations that it will be the "end of the USA" if Kamala is elected is just bizarre and stupid.

Likewise with those who think it's the end of the USA if Trump is elected... The guy is a lazy, self-serving, narcissist who couldn't even build a simple wall like he promised... Let alone get Mexico to pay for it. - But he does conveniently blame his opponents for the illegal immigrants which ironically wouldn't be an issue to start with if he actually did his job when he was in power... And people want to give that a second chance? He failed the first time.

Trump doesn't have the skill or motivation to do anything significant that won't just be reversed after he is kicked out of office at the end of his term... And if it's a conservative that's elected after Kamala, they will just undo whatever she does.

At the end of the day, there are limits to what both candidates can do which are governed by the politics on the congress floor.

It's a never ending cycle.

MAGA and their mouthpieces are lying about the handling of natural disaster relief... It's to the point that other Republicans have to correct them to avoid the chaos caused by other members of their political party.

Remember when conspiracy theory types were considered a lunatic fringe in all corners of the Western world?

What happened? How did so many flat earthers, racists, creationists, vaccine deniers, and conspiracy theorists just pop up over the last 15-20 years?

Was it social media that did it? Is it people actually being swayed by Russian disinformation/propaganda mills and bots? Before social media, these MAGA/cynical conspiracy theorists were an exceedingly rare species - and when they were found, it was usually a troll/someone without genuine belief in that nonsense. Or is it that there were numerous pits around the world where lunacy, credulity, and anti-intellectualism are the mainstream culture, and they didn't have the Internet or the attention of the media until much later than everywhere else?

Of course, it could all be a mirage.

The Internet tends to make lunatic fringe voices seem a lot louder than they actually are. The reason is that lunatic fringe types have an inclination toward being very active in any discussion on these topics. That's why that 0.01% of flat-earthers can feel like 30% of the Internet.

Those same Republicans correcting MAGA will unfortunately still vote for Trump as well, Lol.

Anyway, the amount of blue-checkmark morons with hundreds of thousands of followers that I'm seeing on Twitter actually believing that Democrats are controlling the hurricanes is insane, Lol.

Trump rejects Fox News invite to debate Harris in late October | Reuters

Fox News should invite Pete to come spank them some more instead, at least he shows up for them.

At least the fear mongering with Trump has some merit. He did try to overthrow the last election, he has repeatedly tried to overstep the limitations of the executive branch and has a blueprint on ways to carry out his authoritarian wishlist. You’re right that he’s lazy and stupid which may prevent him from reaching his goals but the threat is absolutely real.

With Harris, the fear mongering is not based in reality.

Love it when Trump goes to a city and just straight up insults them all to their faces.