2024 US Presidential Election

[JWeinCom]

Torillian said:

JWeinCom said:

Problem is that she's juuuuuuuust at the bare minimum of what she'd need to win. Hillary won by I believe about 2% in the popular vote but somehow lost because the system is fucked. So, these results show Kamala winning by juuuuuust enough, and of course polls could be wrong.

The good news though is I think it's unlikely that Trump's support is underestimated in these polls. In 2016, Trump had a little over 46% of the vote. In 2020 a little under that. So, unless Trump has somehow gained a lot of support, he doesn't have  much room for improvement. And... I really just don't see Trump improving over four years ago. If anything, we would expect the opposite considering who is entering and leaving the voting pool. The undecideds should, at worse, break even, and more likely will go more for Harris.

Important to remember, though that it's all just about the distribution. Democrats have been losing ground in places like NY and CA where republicans are so far off they can't possibly have a shot, so if you maintain the same popular vote lead but more of that is distributed in the correct states you're set. 's why you're best off keeping track of the meaningful individual state polling rather than the overall number though that can give you current trends. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ There's a "path to 270" visual on this page that kinda shows you the true state of thing. 

It's hard to know the distribution. There's not a ton of reliable polling data in places like Oregon, California, New Jersey, or Mississippi because we already know who is going to win there, and frankly, nobody cares if Trump is going to win Kansas by 20 or 25. 

Whether we extrapolate from the popular vote or look at the swing state data, we get to the same thing, that Harris is winning by a very very small margin. Of course, a win is a win, but due to the limitations of polls, it's hard to predict anything with confidence.