Some in Israel question its influence over US as Iran war decision nears

As the prospect of a conflict between the US and Iran looms, analysts within Israel have questioned the country’s capacity to determine the outcome of a confrontation in a region that, just months ago, it had regarded itself as on the brink of dominating.

“The [Israeli] opposition are accusing Netanyahu of giving in to Trump and ending the war on Gaza too soon,” said Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg.

“[Israel is] being hounded out of Lebanon, [its] freedom to operate within Syria has been halted. All that’s left to [Israel] is the freedom to kill Palestinians, and with Qatar, Turkiye and Egypt now being involved in Gaza, over Israel’s objection, it won’t be allowed to do that for much longer.”

While senior Israeli figures including Netanyahu are liaising directly with the Trump administration over a possible attack on Iran, analysts say it is increasingly clear that Israel’s ability to shape regional developments is diminished.

After two years of genocide in Gaza, where Israel has killed more than 71,800 Palestinians, the US now appears to have taken the lead and has overruled Israel when it objected to the admission of Turkiye and Qatar to the board that will oversee the administration of Gaza.

In Syria, Israeli ambitions to hobble the new government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa also appear to have fallen foul of Trump’s White House, which is actively pushing the Netanyahu government to reach an accommodation with Damascus. In Lebanon, too, the US continues to play a defining role in determining Israeli actions, with any possible confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel said to be dependent upon Washington’s green light.


How much worse would it be now with another Biden term of unconditional support... Ironically Trump is actually holding Netanyahu back with his greed for oil money.

‘Big Bad Wolf’

While analysts’ expectations that Netanyahu could influence Trump’s actions in Iran may be limited, their sense that a fresh war would buy the Israeli prime minister relief from his current difficulties seems universal.

“Iran is Israel’s ‘Big Bad Wolf’,” Chatham House’s Yossi Mekelberg said of the geopolitical opponent that many in Israel believe exists only to ensure Israel’s destruction.

Mekelberg added that a war with Iran would serve as a useful distraction from Netanyahu’s domestic troubles, such as an inquiry into government failures related to the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, his attempt to weaken the oversight powers of the judiciary, and his ongoing corruption trials.

“There’s a saying in Hebrew: ‘the righteous have their work done by others.’ I’m not for a moment saying that Netanyahu is righteous, but I’m sure he’s keen on having his work done by others,” Mekelberg said.

How much public appetite there may be for a confrontation with Iran is unclear.

Israel was able to heavily damage Iran during the conflict it started in June last year. But Iran was also able to repeatedly pierce Israel’s defences, making it clear that the Israeli public is not safe from the wars its state pursues in the region.

The threat – rather than the reality – of a confrontation with Iran also serves the prime minister’s ends, Goldberg noted. “Netanyahu has no need for a war. He doesn’t really need to do anything other than survive, which he’s proven adept at,” the analyst said, referring to the absence of any credible political rival, as well as the risk that an actual war may highlight Israel’s diplomatic weakness in its dealings with the US.

“There’s this joke phrase that became popular with those resisting Netanyahu’s judicial reform: ‘This time he’s done’,” Goldberg said. “Netanyahu’s never done. He committed a genocide, and all people in Israel can object to is the management of it. He’s currently losing military and diplomatic influence across the region, and few are noticing. I can’t imagine that this will be ‘it’ either.”

US Muslim advocates demand Trump ‘immediately restrain Israel’

American Muslims for Palestine (AMP) has said Israel’s deadly attacks on Gaza and restrictions at the Rafah crossing “should trigger accountability and the withholding of military aid” by the US government.

“Instead of doing that, the United States approved yet another ($6.7bn) weapons deal for Israel just last week, once again making clear how little Palestinian life is valued by this administration,” the group said in a statement.

It urged Trump to enforce “a real ceasefire” in the bombarded Palestinian enclave; lift Israel’s continued blockade of Gaza and withhold US military aid to its top ally.

“Anything less is continued US complicity and a deliberate choice to enable ongoing atrocities.”

Palestine Red Crescent Society condemns Israeli killing of medic in Gaza as war crime

The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) says killed Gaza emergency responder Hussein Hasan Hussein al-Sumairy was “deliberately targeted” by the Israeli military today.

In a statement, PRCS denounced al-Sumairy’s killing as a war crime under international law.

“This crime is part of [Israel’s] systematic policy of continuing to undermine the health and emergency [response] system in the Gaza Strip” since the Israeli bombardment began in October 2023, the agency said.

It called on the international community to take action to protect Palestinian healthcare workers and emergency responders, stressing that inaction gives Israel a greenlight to “continue violating international law and targeting humanitarian personnel”.

📍Gaza | We share our heartfelt condolences to the family, colleagues & friends of Hussein Hasan Hussein Al-Sumairy, who was killed today while providing emergency medical service in Khan Yunis.

Medical personnel & humanitarian workers must be able to carry out their work… pic.twitter.com/0dWHW2Gm6L

— ICRC (@ICRC) February 4, 2026

Satellite images show Israeli forces bulldozed cemetery in Gaza City: Report

Israeli forces have bulldozed part of a cemetery in the Tuffah neighbourhood of Gaza City, satellite imagery has revealed, churning up soil in an area whose size suggests the use of heavy equipment.

British newspaper The Guardian revealed the systematic destruction of the cemetery, which it said contained the remains of dozens of British and Australian and other allied soldiers killed in the first and second world wars.

Israeli forces are known to have damaged or destroyed graves across the Gaza Strip, according to multiple reports from the Palestinian Ministry of Awqaf and Religious Affairs. Last month, the al-Batsh cemetery in Gaza City was excavated as the army recovered the last captive’s body.

Rights group files US complaint against Israeli soldier

The Hind Rajab Foundation says it has filed a complaint in the US against an Israeli soldier named Adi Karni, “seeking [a] criminal investigation for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and acts amounting to genocide committed during Israel’s war in Gaza”.

The group said it has filed complaints against Karni in other places, including Peru.

“Karni is currently present in the United States and is scheduled to speak publicly at Boston University this evening, a fact that directly engages US jurisdiction and heightens the urgency of the filing,” it said.

The Hind Rajab Foundation has filed criminal complaints in countries around the world against members of the Israeli military, whom it accuses of being involved in war crimes in Gaza.

🚨🇺🇸 The #HindRajabFoundation has filed a complaint in the U.S. against Israeli soldier Adi Karni, already under investigation in Peru, for war crimes and genocide in Gaza.
Karni is currently in the U.S. after being invited to speak this evening at Boston University.
More ⬇️… pic.twitter.com/P8eJjlm8hp

— The Hind Rajab Foundation (@HindRFoundation) February 4, 2026

Israel’s Rafah restrictions ‘a slow-motion massacre’

Muhammad Shehada, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, says an agreement that has been violated more than 1,400 times “is no ceasefire at all”.

According to the Gaza Government Media Office, Israel has violated the “truce” with Hamas at least 1,520 times from October 10 until today.

“At most, [the deal] can be just described as some sort of mild diplomatic restraint,” Shehada told Al Jazeera. “Whenever the world’s attention is elsewhere, Israel escalates dramatically.”

He also described Israel’s continued restrictions on freedom of movement at the Rafah border crossing as “cynical cruelty” after Palestinians across Gaza had been looking forward to the crossing’s reopening this week.

“It was a major emotional moment for me, my family, my loved-ones – inside or outside Gaza. But Israel hollowed [it] out of any substance or meaning,” Shehada said, denouncing Israel for blocking most ill and wounded people from getting treatment abroad.

“It’s basically a slow-motion massacre,” he said.

‘What ceasefire?’ Former PLO official says amid deadly Israeli attacks on Gaza

Hanan Ashrawi, a former member of the Palestine Liberation Organization’s executive committee, has denounced Israel’s continued bombardment of Gaza and restrictions at the Rafah crossing with Egypt.

In a post on X, Ashrawi noted that more than 550 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks since the US-brokered “ceasefire” came into effect in October.

“The Rafah crossing continues to be a cruel & severely restricted “passage” of pain & humiliation, subjecting the handful of returning Gazans to prolonged interrogation, endless delays (sometimes lasting days), & confiscation of their luggage,” she said.

“Those who enter are clearly severely traumatised. Those who need to leave to receive urgent medical care are delayed or refused exit, again restricting their numbers to scores.

“This continues to be a multifaceted war of aggression, based on the deliberate manipulation of the pain of a captive people.”

What “ceasefire”? The Israeli occupation forces continues to shell & bomb Gaza killing 20 Palestinians, mainly women & children, & wounding scores of others within the past 12 hours, at the pretext that one Israeli soldier was wounded. Since the beginning of the “ceasefire” more…

— Hanan Ashrawi (@DrHananAshrawi) February 4, 2026

Here’s why Israel is allowing record murder rates in its Palestinian towns

Israel is tolerating violence against its Palestinian citizens to push them out, while weaponising anti-Semitism to pull Jews in.


_{Palestinian citizens of Israel protest, calling on the Israeli government to tackle a wave of crime and killings within their communities through effective law and order, in Sakhnin, northern Israel, January 22, 2026}

While the international media has rightly focused on the genocide and enormous displacement in Gaza alongside the ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem, the 300 murders inside Israel in 2025, 252 of whom were Palestinian victims, garnered little to no media coverage outside Israel. Yet last year marked the deadliest year on record for murders among Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up 21 percent of Israel’s population but sustain 80 percent of the murders. That is one murder every 36 hours.

The international media have also covered the rise in anti-Semitism across the world, even as there has been little to no media coverage of how Israel has been exaggerating and instrumentalising a Zionist notion of anti-Semitism to create moral panic among Jews everywhere. Indeed, when I speak to Jewish friends in Israel, they often ask how I, who live in London, cope with anti-Semitism. As consumers of Israeli news, they can be forgiven for thinking that Jews across the world are in imminent danger.

These two phenomena – the crime epidemic within Palestinian communities inside Israel and the weaponisation of anti-Semitism to amplify Jewish fear – might seem totally unconnected. Yet there is a clear thread linking them, and it is called demographic engineering.


Crime as an impetus to leave

Itamar Ben-Gvir is surely not the first minister of national security to have allowed criminal gangs to terrorise Palestinian communities. But on Ben Gvir’s watch, the murders have reached record levels. And 2026 seems to be following the trend, with 31 more Palestinians murdered during the first month.

On the one hand, Israel has used the soaring crime to portray Palestinian citizens as uncivilised and barbaric, extending the dehumanisation from stateless Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank to its own citizens. On the other hand, it has enabled criminals to terrorise Palestinian towns.

Indeed, the police have solved only 15 percent of the murders within the Palestinian community while doing little, if anything, to stop criminals from collecting “protection fees” from businesses – fees that extract an estimated two billion shekels ($650m) a year from the community.

On January 22, Palestinians launched the largest demonstration since 2019, waving black flags while chanting slogans accusing the police of total abandonment. The following day, the organisers called a general strike, with one of the organisers, Mohammed Shlaata, making it clear that responsibility for the violence lies with the authorities: “We are in a state of emergency,” he said. “We have a clear finger of accusation – we blame the police.”

Talking to Palestinian friends, some tell me they fear for their children’s lives and want them to leave the country, while others have packed their bags and left. Admittedly, the number of those leaving is low, but Palestinian citizens are reaching a boiling point.

Anti-Semitism and negative migration

At the same time that the government does nothing to quell criminal activity and lawlessness within Palestinian communities in Israel, it exaggerates and instrumentalises a Zionist notion of anti-Semitism to continuously reassert Jewish victimhood.

Since 2023, more Jews have been leaving the country than entering. In 2024, the number of citizens leaving Israel was 26,000 higher than the number of immigrants entering it; in 2025, the gap was about 37,000 Israelis. In other words, negative migration has jumped by more than 42 percent, and Israeli officials are worried that this trend is taking root and even accelerating.

Accordingly, both the Israeli public and the Jewish diaspora are told again and again that anti-Semitism across the globe has gone rampant. Jews are told that the horrific Bondi massacre in Australia is an indication of a new global trend, that in the United Kingdom anti-Semitism has been normalised, and that in Europe Jews are afraid to wear kippahs.

Anti-Semitism has undoubtedly soared over the past two years, and there is obviously a kernel of truth in these articles. But in contrast to the very real panic among Palestinian citizens, which the state has ignored, in the case of anti-Semitism, the state dramatically exaggerates and instrumentalises the evidence to produce a moral panic. The message is clear: Jews across the world should fear for their lives, and therefore those who live in Israel should be wary of leaving, while the only way diasporic Jews can be safe is by migrating to Israel.

Supremacy as glue

The glue holding all of the demographic strategies Israel deploys together is the belief in Jewish exceptionalism and supremacy. The genocide in Gaza and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank are justified through the dehumanisation of Palestinians; the neglect of the murders and crime in Palestinian communities within Israel is informed by racial discrimination that has been ongoing since 1948; and Israel is weaponising racism against Jews to curb negative migration. The ultimate objective is to guarantee the racial-religious character of Israel as exclusively Jewish, while the dream is a pure Jewish state.